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Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS:

New Pre-Announcement Plays:

Play Date: 07/28/2008
NCR (NCR Corp.--$26.92; +0.10; optionable): IT software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08 before the open
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Forming a nice week long handle to its 8 week base that is itself the handle to a larger 9 month cup with handle pattern. Both are solid accumulation patterns, and during the market selling NCR set up this base, and in the last round of selling it has improved its strength, setting up the breakout. Relative strength is indeed solid and it is making the breakout right now ahead of price, a very bullish trait. Money flow is strong as well, leading higher ahead of price. Earnings are before the open Tuesday, and we are waiting to see how the stock reacts. If it gaps higher we will look for a test and if it holds we will take part of a position. Then we wait and see how it tests the initial run higher to give us another entry point to complete the buy.
Volume: 1.525M Avg Volume: 1.623M
BUY POINT: $27.44 Volume=2.4M Target=$31.65 Stop=$26.11
POSITION: NCR JE - Oct. $25c (84 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ncr.html

Play Date: 07/28/2008
ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line--$35.02; -0.60; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odfl.html
Earnings: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Breakout test. ODFL broke out ahead of its earnings, surging higher two weeks back as oil started its break lower. ODFL crashed the roadblock resistance in its 15 week flat base and drove on to 38. From there it has tested, holding up well through earnings in its test, settling at the 10 day EMA (34.63) the past three sessions. Nice lower volume test, the perfect set up to send it higher. Like how it continued its business even on earnings, not selling off, just making its test. It is in great position to move higher and we are ready to move in as it makes the break higher on some rising trade.
Volume: 697.938K Avg Volume: 650.755K
BUY POINT: $35.94 Volume=800K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.44
POSITION: QPS JG - Oct. $35p (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/odfl.html

Downside:

Play Date: 07/28/2008
AGU (Agrium--$84.75; +0.57; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: August 6
STATUS: Put. AGU formed a leaning head and shoulders (not really a signature pattern, just looks like that) the past couple of months and tumbled lower last week, crashing the 90 day SMA (88) as it did. Held some support at 80 and bounced, but on low volume. Tried to reach up to that resistance again Monday but it fell short and then slid back. Money flow is in a cliff dive. Looking for AGU to follow it. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain (roughly $300/contract). There is a gap higher way back in early April near 65; if AGU is falling hard we will try to keep at least some of the positions open for that move.
Volume: 3.702M Avg Volume: 5.11M
BUY POINT: $84.12 Volume=6M Target=$76.55 Stop=$87.15
POSITION: AGU UQ - Sept. $85p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agu.html

Play Date: 07/28/2008
APD (Air Products & Chemicals--$94.89; -0.50; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08 before the open
STATUS: Head and shoulders. APD gapped higher on its earnings then immediately rolled over and fell screaming through the 200 day SMA (96.50). It checked up Friday at some support at 95. It even tried to rally Monday, running up to test the 200 day on the high but then rolled over and closed negative. Not a lot of trade but with money flow low and getting lower we anticipate APD will deflate and break sharply lower. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.164M Avg Volume: 1.542M
BUY POINT: $94.28 Volume=1.8M Target=$89.25 Stop=$96.55
POSITION: APD US - Sept. $95p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apd.html

Play Date: 07/28/2008
JCI (Johnson Controls--$29.37; -1.68; optionable): OEM auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Put. Sold off in late June to early July (what's new about that?) then rebounded for a week along with the market, actually making it through the 50 day EMA (31.11) last Wednesday. It didn't last. Next session it tanked, bounced Friday, but could not take out the 50 day on the close, then collapsed Monday on rising average volume. Money flow is diving. JCI is diving. Ready to move in as JCI makes its next run lower toward the July lows. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 4.357M Avg Volume: 4.028M
BUY POINT: $29.17 Volume=5.5M Target=$27.05 Stop=$30.15
POSITION: JCI UF - Sept. $30p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jci.html

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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