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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
NEW PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/28/2008
NCR (NCR Corp.--$26.92; +0.10; optionable): IT software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08 before the open
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Forming a nice week long handle to its 8 week base that is itself the handle to a larger 9 month cup with handle pattern. Both are solid accumulation patterns, and during the market selling NCR set up this base, and in the last round of selling it has improved its strength, setting up the breakout. Relative strength is indeed solid and it is making the breakout right now ahead of price, a very bullish trait. Money flow is strong as well, leading higher ahead of price. Earnings are before the open Tuesday, and we are waiting to see how the stock reacts. If it gaps higher we will look for a test and if it holds we will take part of a position. Then we wait and see how it tests the initial run higher to give us another entry point to complete the buy.
Volume: 1.525M Avg Volume: 1.623M
BUY POINT: $27.44 Volume=2.4M Target=$31.65 Stop=$26.11
POSITION: NCR JE - Oct. $25c (84 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ncr.html
Play Date: 07/28/2008
ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line--$35.02; -0.60; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odfl.html
Earnings: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Breakout test. ODFL broke out ahead of its earnings, surging higher two weeks back as oil started its break lower. ODFL crashed the roadblock resistance in its 15 week flat base and drove on to 38. From there it has tested, holding up well through earnings in its test, settling at the 10 day EMA (34.63) the past three sessions. Nice lower volume test, the perfect set up to send it higher. Like how it continued its business even on earnings, not selling off, just making its test. It is in great position to move higher and we are ready to move in as it makes the break higher on some rising trade.
Volume: 697.938K Avg Volume: 650.755K
BUY POINT: $35.94 Volume=800K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.44
POSITION: QPS JG - Oct. $35p (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/odfl.html
Play Date: 07/28/2008
SYNA (Synaptics--$46.88; -0.17; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syna.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08 after the close
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving laterally in a tight range on low volume, forming a short handle to a short 8 week base. Similar to other strong stocks in this market, this small base for SYNA is part of a larger 8 month cup with handle pattern. Excellent set up for the break higher. Indeed SYNA showed some excellent trade last Wednesday as it gapped higher. Set up well, just needs to show the next break over the early June high to make the breakout move.
Volume: 485.089K Avg Volume: 1.008M
BUY POINT: $48.28 Volume=1.5M Target=$55.95 Stop=$46.38
POSITION: QYG LI - Dec. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/syna.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/28/2008
AGU (Agrium--$84.75; +0.57; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: August 6
STATUS: Put. AGU formed a leaning head and shoulders (not really a signature pattern, just looks like that) the past couple of months and tumbled lower last week, crashing the 90 day SMA (88) as it did. Held some support at 80 and bounced, but on low volume. Tried to reach up to that resistance again Monday but it fell short and then slid back. Money flow is in a cliff dive. Looking for AGU to follow it. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain (roughly $300/contract). There is a gap higher way back in early April near 65; if AGU is falling hard we will try to keep at least some of the positions open for that move.
Volume: 3.702M Avg Volume: 5.11M
BUY POINT: $84.12 Volume=6M Target=$76.55 Stop=$87.15
POSITION: AGU UQ - Sept. $85p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agu.html
Play Date: 07/28/2008
APD (Air Products & Chemicals--$94.89; -0.50; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08 before the open
STATUS: Head and shoulders. APD gapped higher on its earnings then immediately rolled over and fell screaming through the 200 day SMA (96.50). It checked up Friday at some support at 95. It even tried to rally Monday, running up to test the 200 day on the high but then rolled over and closed negative. Not a lot of trade but with money flow low and getting lower we anticipate APD will deflate and break sharply lower. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.164M Avg Volume: 1.542M
BUY POINT: $94.28 Volume=1.8M Target=$89.25 Stop=$96.55
POSITION: APD US - Sept. $95p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apd.html
Play Date: 07/28/2008
JCI (Johnson Controls--$29.37; -1.68; optionable): OEM auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Put. Sold off in late June to early July (what's new about that?) then rebounded for a week along with the market, actually making it through the 50 day EMA (31.11) last Wednesday. It didn't last. Next session it tanked, bounced Friday, but could not take out the 50 day on the close, then collapsed Monday on rising average volume. Money flow is diving. JCI is diving. Ready to move in as JCI makes its next run lower toward the July lows. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 4.357M Avg Volume: 4.028M
BUY POINT: $29.17 Volume=5.5M Target=$27.05 Stop=$30.15
POSITION: JCI UF - Sept. $30p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jci.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/26/2008
BKE (Buckle, Inc.--$50.69; +0.71; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bke.html
EARNINGS: 8-21-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still a very nice pattern, holding the 10 day EMA on the Monday low then bouncing nicely on a strong shot of upside volume. Looks very ready to breakout, contrary to what you would think with respect to consumer discretionary spending. If it goes, it goes, and we will be ready to move in. To recap: Strong move higher early last week, trying the breakout from an 8 week base, showing strong volume on Tuesday as it made the break higher. Slipped back on low volume Thursday and Friday, holding over near support at the 10 day EMA (49.39) on the intraday lows. A retailer that is in great shape. Just want some more volume as it makes the next upside break.
Volume: 561.079K Avg Volume: 422.759K
BUY POINT: $52.05 Volume=550K Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bke.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
IXYS (Ixys Corporation--$12.03; -0.42; optionable): Power semiconductors, integrated circuits, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ixys.html
EARNINGS: Late August
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Sold back Monday, but held the 18 day EMA on the close on lower trade. Still setting up nicely despite what NASDAQ did overall. Just waiting to see if it gives us the break higher. To recap: After a roaring surge in late May on its last earnings report IXYS has formed the current 6 week base over a rising 50 day EMA that still has some catching up to get to IXYS. IXYS formed this base on top of the October peak that started the 8 month base IXYS jumped out of in May. A nice consolidation that used the market selling in early July to put in the second bottom to the base and lay the groundwork for the next breakout and run higher toward a 3-year high. Very solid. There are a group of semiconductor stocks moving to the fore similar to a cycling team moving to the front of the peloton to position itself for the ending sprint. Okay, a bit heavy on the Tour de France references of late, but when you have a sprinter such as Mark Cavendish taking four sprint stages you tend to get carried away.
Volume: 161.5K Avg Volume: 251.122K
BUY POINT: $12.66 Volume=350K Target=$15.31 Stop=$11.77
POSITION: UXS JV - Oct. $12.50c (49 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ixys.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$36.08; -0.27; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-14-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice test of the 10 day EMA, closing there Monday on very low, below average volume, the first below average trade in three weeks. Set up well to break higher just as is ODFL. We will just see which one wants it more and move in. To recap: JBHT got some mileage out of its earnings announcement and the drop in oil, both combining to break it out of its 10 week base formed from May to early July. That consolidated a larger 9 month pattern starting a year ago; nice large and solid foundation setting up a nice run. It made its first move and how it is testing, falling back Thursday as oil bounced modestly. Held the 10 day EMA on the session low with lower volume as it comes back. That shows few sellers, and after this test we look to pick up JBHT as it makes the bounce higher.
Volume: 1.446M Avg Volume: 2.668M
BUY POINT: $37.28 Volume=4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.77
POSITION: JHQ KG - Nov. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jbht.html
Play Date: 07/23/2008
MFLX (Multi-Fineline Electronics--$27.43; +0.24; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mflx.html
EARNINGS: Early August
STATUS: Breakout test/50 day EMA test. Gapped higher Monday, but was up and down and volume was lower. Still in excellent shape, still looking for a strong break higher. Very solid relative strength, ready to breakout ahead of price. To recap: Strong volume the past two sessions as MFLX comes off a test of the June breakout from a 12 week base. Great surge on that move and then in the July selling MFLX came back to test, holding the 50 day EMA (24.51) on the lows last week. Then it got some volume as it took off to the upside. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of the price and MFLX looks to be starting to follow it upside.
Volume: 324.804K Avg Volume: 318.625K
BUY POINT: $27.74 Volume=385K Target=$32.95 Stop=$25.88
POSITION: FUX KE - Nov. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mflx.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
PKI (Perkinelmer--$29.21; -0.15; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Followed the gap higher with a pause Monday, easing back on lower volume. No issues with this action as it consolidates the break higher without giving up any ground. Will let it finish this test and then be ready to move in. To recap: PKI gapped out of a large 10 month base, spending the last 8 weeks in the handle, forming something of a double bottom with handle at the end of a larger double bottom with handle. Made a higher low this week at near support after a strong Tuesday surge then Thursday after its earnings beat and guidance was up. Gapped up on us in the morning, testing intraday and rebounding. If it can continue the move this week it is a buy.
Volume: 1.441M Avg Volume: 1.238M
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$33.95 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: PKI LG - Dec. $30c (53 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pki.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
UNP (Union Pacific--$76.58; -0.91; optionable): Rails
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Testing back on continued below average volume, doing some further work on the handle before it decides to leave the station. Very solid pattern and when it finishes the test and starts to chug ahead we will move in. Very solid. To recap: Transports are back in game after a test to form new bases, and UNP is shaping up another good entry point as it works laterally the past two sessions, starting a handle consolidation to its 8 week base. Good action, tapping down to the 50 day SMA (75.57) Friday and then rebounding to close flat. Nice action to set up a new breakout to a new high. Looks as if it will take 2 to 3 more days to finish forming the handle. Our cue to move in is on a renewed bounce higher on strong volume.
Volume: 3.95M Avg Volume: 5.876M
BUY POINT: New: $77.68 (orig. $78.55) Volume=7.5M Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.45
POSITION: UNP KA - Nov. $77.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/unp.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 07/24/2008
AFSI (Am Trust Financial Services--$13.10; -0.16; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afsi.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08 after the close
STATUS: Put. Still struggling below the 50 day EMA (13.39) as volume bumped up to average; a bit of churn or higher volume turnover that indicates distribution, particularly below a resistance point such as the 50 day. Still looking for the turn lower to give us the uby point. To recap: After an ugly spiral lower from April to the second week of July, AFSI rebounded the past two weeks, rallying up to the 50 day EMA (13.41) Wednesday and Thursday, reaching through those levels on the intraday highs but unable to close above those levels on the close. The inability to hold a move over those levels shows weakness at that level. Money flow is low and turning down ahead of price. Ready to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 254.805K Avg Volume: 338.789K
BUY POINT: $12.98 Volume=350K Target=$11.22 Stop=$13.92
POSITION: QFF UC - Sept. $15p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/afsi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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