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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/30/2008
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$50.95; +3.77; optionable): Natural gas production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
EARNINGS: 7/31/08 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom. Some ugly selling in July took CHK from 75 to 45 on last Thursdays close. That was at the 200 day SMA and it tested that level again Tuesday, then blasted higher Wednesday on very strong volume. CHK's CEO has a habit of buying the stock when opportunity presents and he has been buying even before this decline. Typically buying with him is rewarding. Looking to move in as CHK continues this move higher. Earnings are released after the Thursday close, but there are enough positives going for CHK we are not getting too wound up about that.
Volume: 27.737M Avg Volume: 17.499M
BUY POINT: $51.42 Volume=18M Target=$58.95 Stop=$48.89
POSITION: CHK JJ - Oct. $50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chk.html
Play Date: 07/30/2008
ENER (Energy Conversion Devices--$68.61; +2.19; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ener.html
EARNINGS: 8-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom. After a strong May to late June surge ENER has tested back to the key 50 day EMA (63.03), hitting it in early July, bouncing, but then losing its drive. It sold back to the 50 day EMA and tapped the same 60 level it hit one session intraday in early July on its first bottom. Bounced and volume is moving higher. Strong money flow is leading the way higher and with volume continuing higher on a further upside move we are ready to move in.
Volume: 2.596M Avg Volume: 3.442M
BUY POINT: $68.94 Volume=500K Target=$79.75 Stop=$66.11
POSITION: EQI IM - Sept. $65c (64 delta) or EQI LN - Dec. $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ener.html
Play Date: 07/30/2008
RIMM (Research in Motion--$119.22; +3.16; optionable): Smart phones
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 9-25-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After gapping lower in late June on earnings that didn't cut the mustard, RIMM languished for 4 weeks, undercutting the 200 day SMA (114.59) by a good margin. It recovered and spent the past week moving laterally just over the 200 day. The action formed the right shoulder to a 4 week base. Wednesday RIMM was up and though volume was nothing to get all rimmed up about, the market firmed and this tech is in position to make a run up toward that unfilled gap all the way up near 140. Interesting.
Volume: 14.583M Avg Volume: 18.839M
BUY POINT: $119.89 Volume=25M Target=$136.95 Stop=$116.68
POSITION: RUL ID - Sept. $120c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
Play Date: 07/30/2008
TMO (Thermo Fisher Scientific--$59.55; +1.40; optionable): Analytical instruments, equipment, reagents, software, etc. for research, analysis, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tmo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Spent the year thus far devoting itself to an ascending triangle, making a series of higher lows along an August 2007/April 2008 trendline with a constant top at 59ish. After earnings last week it dipped to the 50 day SMA, making a higher low, and bouncing. Not a lot of volume on the bounce, but it is at the highs in the pattern and a higher low in such a situation typically precedes a breakout move. Strong money flow is leading the way higher and coupled with the higher low we are looking for a breakout move here.
Volume: 2.359M Avg Volume: 2.616M
BUY POINT: $60.12 Volume=3.9M Target=$67.74 Stop=$58.08
POSITION: TMO LL - Dec. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tmo.html
Play Date: 07/30/2008
USM (U.S. Cellular--$61.45; +1.45; optionable): US Wireless telecom markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usm.html
EARNINGS: 8-6-08 (not confirmed)
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume was up and above average Wednesday as USM broke higher off the 50 day EMA (58.13). Volume has spiked on several occasions over the past two weeks, showing accumulation of the stock in this second bottom of its lazy, wide 24 week 'W.' Money flow is leading higher, USM is following. Looking to move in as it continues the move. Resistance is ahead at the May high at 68 and the 200 day SMA at 68.62, but with this base behind it we expect USM to push on through though it may pause and/or form some kind of handle at that point.
Volume: 116.772K Avg Volume: 120.311K
BUY POINT: $61.78 Volume=165K Target=$69.88 Stop=$58.77
POSITION: USM KL - Nov. $60c (55 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/usm.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/29/2008
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$74.28; -0.19; optionable): Chinese education and training courses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice slow session, holding in a tight range, working on the handle, setting up a great breakout ahead. Just waiting for it to educate us as to when it will make the break higher. To recap: Working on a two week handle to its 10 week base, working laterally on low volume as the 10 day EMA (72.35) rises to meet it. Part of a larger 9 month base, making a higher low here setting up for a new breakout. Volume rose to average Tuesday as EDU made the test of the 10 day and bounced. In great position to make the break higher. A very volatile stock, but a very nice base and it can run like the wind when it gets going.
Volume: 294.395K Avg Volume: 657.128K
BUY POINT: $76.88 Volume=986K Target=$86.95 Stop=$72.22
POSITION: EDU JO - Oct. $75c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/edu.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
IXYS (Ixys Corporation--$12.39; +0.17; optionable): Power semiconductors, integrated circuits, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ixys.html
EARNINGS: Late August
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Holding over the 10 day EMA, probing the breakout Wednesday but fading back to flat on continued below average volume. Still solid, still in position to show is a nice continued break higher. To recap: After a roaring surge in late May on its last earnings report IXYS has formed the current 6 week base over a rising 50 day EMA that still has some catching up to get to IXYS. IXYS formed this base on top of the October peak that started the 8 month base IXYS jumped out of in May. A nice consolidation that used the market selling in early July to put in the second bottom to the base and lay the groundwork for the next breakout and run higher toward a 3-year high. Very solid. There are a group of semiconductor stocks moving to the fore similar to a cycling team moving to the front of the peloton to position itself for the ending sprint. Okay, a bit heavy on the Tour de France references of late, but when you have a sprinter such as Mark Cavendish taking four sprint stages you tend to get carried away.
Volume: 197.043K Avg Volume: 255.431K
BUY POINT: $12.66 Volume=350K Target=$15.31 Stop=$11.77
POSITION: UXS JV - Oct. $12.50c (49 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ixys.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$37.06; -0.39; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-14-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Bounced off the 10 day EMA Tuesday but faded to test it again Wednesday on the low, managing to close modestly lower on low trade. Still a nice lateral consolidation of the breakout, working out the route for the next move higher. Solid. To recap: JBHT got some mileage out of its earnings announcement and the drop in oil, both combining to break it out of its 10 week base formed from May to early July. That consolidated a larger 9 month pattern starting a year ago; nice large and solid foundation setting up a nice run. It made its first move and how it is testing, falling back Thursday as oil bounced modestly. Held the 10 day EMA on the session low with lower volume as it comes back. That shows few sellers, and after this test we look to pick up JBHT as it makes the bounce higher.
Volume: 2.11M Avg Volume: 2.67M
BUY POINT: $37.28 Volume=4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.77
POSITION: JHQ KG - Nov. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jbht.html
Play Date: 07/28/2008
NCR (NCR Corp.--$27.19; +0.54; optionable): IT software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08 before the open
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After NCR could not make the break higher on earnings (tried but got pushed back to the 10 day EMA), NCR is reloading, holding at the 10 day EMA and bouncing Wednesday on lower but still strong volume. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Looks ready, now it needs to show the goods. To recap: Forming a nice week long handle to its 8 week base that is itself the handle to a larger 9 month cup with handle pattern. Both are solid accumulation patterns, and during the market selling NCR set up this base, and in the last round of selling it has improved its strength, setting up the breakout. Relative strength is indeed solid and it is making the breakout right now ahead of price, a very bullish trait. Money flow is strong as well, leading higher ahead of price. Earnings are before the open Tuesday, and we are waiting to see how the stock reacts. If it gaps higher we will look for a test and if it holds we will take part of a position. Then we wait and see how it tests the initial run higher to give us another entry point to complete the buy.
Volume: 1.943M Avg Volume: 1.661M
BUY POINT: $27.44 Volume=2.4M Target=$31.65 Stop=$26.11
POSITION: NCR JE - Oct. $25c (84 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ncr.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
PKI (Perkinelmer--$29.09; +0.41; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher on the earnings last Friday, then immediately tested. Held the 10 day EMA (28.67) on the close then bounced Tuesday. Nice higher low, looking for more volume as PKI moves higher. As it does it is a good buy. To recap: PKI gapped out of a large 10 month base, spending the last 8 weeks in the handle, forming something of a double bottom with handle at the end of a larger double bottom with handle. Made a higher low this week at near support after a strong Tuesday surge then Thursday after its earnings beat and guidance was up. Gapped up on us in the morning, testing intraday and rebounding. If it can continue the move this week it is a buy.
Volume: 1.279M Avg Volume: 1.213M
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$33.95 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: PKI LG - Dec. $30c (53 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pki.html
Play Date: 07/28/2008
SYNA (Synaptics--$46.14; -0.35; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syna.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08 after the close
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another stock forming an excellent handle to its base, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low (45.40) and bouncing to close flat. Very quiet volume, just what you want before the breakout move. To recap: Moving laterally in a tight range on low volume, forming a short handle to a short 8 week base. Similar to other strong stocks in this market, this small base for SYNA is part of a larger 8 month cup with handle pattern. Excellent set up for the break higher. Indeed SYNA showed some excellent trade last Wednesday as it gapped higher. Set up well, just needs to show the next break over the early June high to make the breakout move.
Volume: 735.273K Avg Volume: 1.007M
BUY POINT: $48.28 Volume=1.5M Target=$55.95 Stop=$46.38
POSITION: QYG LI - Dec. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/syna.html
Play Date: 07/29/2008
WSO (Watsco--$50.11; -0.31; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Bounced Tuesday, faded on very low volume Wednesday. Didn't get that extra trade it needed to push higher. Still solid, still looking for the next push higher on much better volume. To recap: Raced higher on strong earnings, clearing an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.33) as support. Spent the past week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (48.35) Monday, holding, then breaking higher Tuesday. Tuesday volume was nothing to get all excited about, but really like the pattern and the position for a rapid gain higher. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Ready to move in as WSO continues its move higher.
Volume: 165.44K Avg Volume: 320.312K
BUY POINT: $50.77 Volume=450K Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: WSO KJ - Nov. $50c (54 delta, 104 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wso.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 07/28/2008
JCI (Johnson Controls--$31.04; +0.75; optionable): OEM auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Put. Moved further to the upside Wednesday, moving through the 50 day EMA (31.08) on the high but then slipping on lower, below average volume to close just below that level. Like the low trade on the attempt . . . for a downside play. Looking for it to roll back down and it would be nice to see some more volume as it does. Looking for a move below the 18 day EMA (30.23) to give us the entry point. To recap: Sold off in late June to early July (what's new about that?) then rebounded for a week along with the market, actually making it through the 50 day EMA (31.11) last Wednesday. It didn't last. Next session it tanked, bounced Friday, but could not take out the 50 day on the close, then collapsed Monday on rising average volume. Money flow is diving. JCI is diving. Ready to move in as JCI makes its next run lower toward the July lows. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 3.649M Avg Volume: 4.029M
BUY POINT: $30.18 Volume=5.5M Target=$27.05 Stop=$31.21
POSITION: JCI UF - Sept. $30p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jci.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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