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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 07/31/2008
ATVID (Activision, Inc.--$35.98; +0.20; optionable): Multimedia game, graphics software. Splits 2:1 on a date to be determined
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvid.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08 after the close
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Announced its results after hours and they were impressive, but the stock was down 0.75 after the news. Nice 7 week pattern has formed with ATVID coming back to the 18 day EMA (35.35) the past week. Nice hold at near support and will see if it makes the breakout on the earnings results or pretty near thereafter. Really solid results with a nice pattern to set up the next run.
Volume: 4.356M Avg Volume: 5.26M
BUY POINT: $36.69 Volume=7.5M Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.77
POSITION: AQV KG - Nov. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/atvid.html
Play Date: 07/31/2008
SYNA (Synaptics--$48.22; +2.08; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08 after the close
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Ahead of earnings SYNA broke higher off the 10 day EMA that acted as support in the weeklong handle to its 8 week base. Strong volume, great price move. This smaller base formed the handle to a larger 8 month cup with handle base. Interesting. In any event, nice break higher and after hours SYNA announced earnings and a split. It was all over the map after hours, with the last trades in the 48 range. We will see if SYNA can hold the pattern and build into a gain tomorrow. If not tomorrow then we will wait and see how it performs over the days following the announcement and look for a good entry point.
Volume: 2.6M Avg Volume: 1.006M
BUY POINT: $48.45 Volume=1M Target=$55.95 Stop=$45.72
POSITION: QYG LI - Dec. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syna.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 07/31/2008
AMT (American Tower--$41.90; -0.90; optionable): Cell phone towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-30-08 before the open
STATUS: Double bottom. AMT announced earnings before the Wednesday open and gapped higher. Thursday it faded back, holding part of the gain as volume dropped back. Will see how it handles this test of break higher and if it holds and resumes on more volume then it is a buy as it continues the move out of this 8 week base. May take a few days to set up, forming a handle to the base to give it a better launch point.
Volume: 5.299M Avg Volume: 4.124M
BUY POINT: $42.88 Volume=5.8M Target=$48.95 Stop=$41.31
POSITION: AMT JZ - Oct. 42.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amt.html
Play Date: 07/31/2008
BIDU (Baidu.com--$347.15; -3.09; optionable): Chinese internet search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. BIDU has moved up to the December 2007/May 2008 down trendline at 325, tapping at it on Wednesday and fading on low volume Thursday. Going to be patient and see if BIDU makes just a modest test and then blows through the trendline on some good volume. That is our cue to move in.
Volume: 1.848M Avg Volume: 3.577M
BUY POINT: $353.23 Volume=4M Target=$399.45 Stop=$343.22
POSITION: BPJ IJ - Sept. $350c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bidu.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/31/2008
SCHN (Schnitzer Steel--$90.24; -1.27; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-1-08
STATUS: Put. SCHN broke hard to the downside to start July with the general dumping of the materials stocks. It held at the 90 day SMA (92.34) but fell through that support and on down to the 200 day SMA (76.34). Rebounded over the past week, running up to the 90 day and tapping the 50 day EMA (93.57) on the intraday high Wednesday, then fading back. Struggled to hang on Thursday, managing to rebound to recover some losses. Money flow is heading lower ahead of price and we are looking for SCHN to fail here and head lower, following the money. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.016M Avg Volume: 773.242K
BUY POINT: $88.44 Volume=1.2M Target=$80.35 Stop=$90.88
POSITION: SQQ UR - Sept. $90p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/schn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ACL: No announcement with earnings on 7-23-08 but still working well.
APD: No split announcement and looks ready to head lower.
BAX: Setting up for a new buy.
BKE: Forecast 8-21-08
BMI: No announcement on 7-21-08 but excellent move higher
CMTL: Researching date
FCN: Early August
IBM: Setting up for the next breakout move
NCR: Reported earnings but no split. A wild session but still in the pattern.
TMX: No split announcement yet, but massing for a stronger break higher.
VAR: Forecast third week of July. No split announcement but a big gap higher on strong volume.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/31/2008
CALM (Cal-Maine Foods--$37.90; -0.12; optionable): Eggs, produce
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/calm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Earnings did not blast CALM higher out of its very nicely formed 16 week base, but it also did not break it down. Instead, CALM calmly continued working on the handle shakeout over near support at the 18 day EMA (36.85), making the last shakeout to set up a breakout attempt and a move to a new all-time high. Nice set up, just needs to finish up its work and show the breakout move.
Volume: 1.217M Avg Volume: 988.611K
BUY POINT: $38.65 Volume=1.4M Target=$46.48 Stop=$36.68
POSITION: QKM KG - Nov. $35c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/calm.html
Play Date: 07/29/2008
WSO (Watsco--$49.87; -0.24; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working laterally, still testing over the 10 day EMA (48.89) as WSO takes a quick breather before it heads higher once more. Solid; just waiting for the next move. To recap: Raced higher on strong earnings, clearing an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.33) as support. Spent the past week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA Monday, holding, then breaking higher Tuesday. Tuesday volume was nothing to get all excited about, but really like the pattern and the position for a rapid gain higher. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Ready to move in as WSO continues its move higher.
Volume: 174.388K Avg Volume: 319.77K
BUY POINT: $50.77 Volume=450K Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: WSO KJ - Nov. $50c (54 delta, 104 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wso.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/26/2008
IBM (International Business Machines--$127.98; -0.88; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice doji at the 10 day EMA on low volume Thursday as IBM continues to hold up nicely, working on the handle. In great position to move. Now it just needs to do the deed. To recap: After breaking higher last week on a strong earnings report, IBM is moving laterally just below 130, trading in a flat range. It is forming the consolidation to its 8 week pattern, the handle shakeout at the prior high reached in May as the base started. After this test of the 10 day EMA (127.58) we are looking for a renewed breakout on volume to move into new positions.
Volume: 5.856M Avg Volume: 8.046M
BUY POINT: $128.55 Volume=10M Target=$145.95 Stop=$126.44
POSITION: IBM JF - Oct. $130c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibm.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/26/2008
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$47.67; -1.18; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped lower down to the 50 day SMA but still holding in the test and still in position to continue. To recap: APH surged on earnings, breaking out from a short 6 week cup that formed following a 6 month cup with handle base. Strong surge on strong volume, coming back to the 18 day EMA (47.71), holding just above that level Friday, showing a doji on rising volume. Strong move to a new high, testing it back to support, still looks good for a rebound and a new high once more.
Volume: 1.123M Avg Volume: 1.353M
BUY POINT: $48.89 Volume=2M Target=$56.95 Stop=$47.48
POSITION: APH JI - Oct. $45c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aph.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
IXYS (Ixys Corporation--$12.24; -0.15; optionable): Power semiconductors, integrated circuits, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ixys.html
EARNINGS: Late August
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Second tight doji above the 18 day EMA as volume creeps higher. Still nice pattern, still just waiting for the break higher. To recap: After a roaring surge in late May on its last earnings report IXYS has formed the current 6 week base over a rising 50 day EMA that still has some catching up to get to IXYS. IXYS formed this base on top of the October peak that started the 8 month base IXYS jumped out of in May. A nice consolidation that used the market selling in early July to put in the second bottom to the base and lay the groundwork for the next breakout and run higher toward a 3-year high. Very solid. There are a group of semiconductor stocks moving to the fore similar to a cycling team moving to the front of the peloton to position itself for the ending sprint. Okay, a bit heavy on the Tour de France references of late, but when you have a sprinter such as Mark Cavendish taking four sprint stages you tend to get carried away.
Volume: 229.798K Avg Volume: 257.859K
BUY POINT: $12.66 Volume=350K Target=$15.31 Stop=$11.77
POSITION: UXS JV - Oct. $12.50c (49 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ixys.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$36.98; -0.08; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-14-08
STATUS: Test breakout. The range is tightening as JBHT moves laterally just over the 10 day EMA (36.57) as volume remains low. That means no sellers, just taking a breather. Nice. Just waiting for the break. To recap: JBHT got some mileage out of its earnings announcement and the drop in oil, both combining to break it out of its 10 week base formed from May to early July. That consolidated a larger 9 month pattern starting a year ago; nice large and solid foundation setting up a nice run. It made its first move and how it is testing, falling back Thursday as oil bounced modestly. Held the 10 day EMA on the session low with lower volume as it comes back. That shows few sellers, and after this test we look to pick up JBHT as it makes the bounce higher.
Volume: 1.405M Avg Volume: 2.679M
BUY POINT: $37.28 Volume=4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.77
POSITION: JHQ KG - Nov. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jbht.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/24/2008
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$47.92; +1.34; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: 8-4-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume moves to average as CMED flexes its muscles a bit. Nice set up, ready to make the move. To recap: Seeing this pattern quite a bit of late: a larger double bottom with handle with the handle forming its own little double bottom with handle over the past four weeks. CMED rallied with the market, moving off its second leg in the double bottom. Pulled back some Thursday on low volume, tapping the 10 day EMA (45.27) on the low and then rebounding to recoup some losses, bouncing a big more Friday. It looks ready to test a bit more toward the 10 day EMA and when it bounces off that on solid trade we start picking up some positions.
Volume: 580.926K Avg Volume: 537.966K
BUY POINT: New: On a further break higher on even better volume (orig. $47.04) Volume=800K Target=$56.95 Stop=$45.12
POSITION: QCY LI - Dec. $45c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmed.html
Play Date: 07/30/2008
ENER (Energy Conversion Devices--$69.93; +1.32; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ener.html
EARNINGS: 8-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Gapped higher Thursday on stronger, above average volume, and then eroded two-thirds of its gains into the close. With that action we held off moving in, waiting to see if it will come back more Friday what with the jobs and all. If it does and bounces again, a buy. To recap: After a strong May to late June surge ENER has tested back to the key 50 day EMA (63.03), hitting it in early July, bouncing, but then losing its drive. It sold back to the 50 day EMA and tapped the same 60 level it hit one session intraday in early July on its first bottom. Bounced and volume is moving higher. Strong money flow is leading the way higher and with volume continuing higher on a further upside move we are ready to move in.
Volume: 3.712M Avg Volume: 3.442M
BUY POINT: New: A bounce after another test of the break higher is a buy (orig. $68.94) Volume=500K Target=$79.75 Stop=$66.11
POSITION: EQI IM - Sept. $65c (64 delta) or EQI LN - Dec. $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ener.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS
Play Date: 07/28/2008
AGU (Agrium--$88.00; -3.66; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: August 6
STATUS: Put. Took this one off after the Wednesday bounce higher, but it rolled back over below the 90 day SMA (88.81) Thursday, and if it keeps going it is a buy as it turns over once more. Third doji below the 90 day SMA, trying to rally after the Wednesday dive lower last week. Weak sector even with MOS reporting good earnings after hours (it could only muster less than a point gain on those results). Will see how it opens up on Wednesday after the MOS results; if the sector is weak AGU will give us a good downside buy. To recap: AGU formed a leaning head and shoulders (not really a signature pattern, just looks like that) the past couple of months and tumbled lower last week, crashing the 90 day SMA (88) as it did. Held some support at 80 and bounced, but on low volume. Tried to reach up to that resistance again Monday but it fell short and then slid back. Money flow is in a cliff dive. Looking for AGU to follow it. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain (roughly $300/contract). There is a gap higher way back in early April near 65; if AGU is falling hard we will try to keep at least some of the positions open for that move.
Volume: 4.7M Avg Volume: 5.11M
BUY POINT: New: $87.44 (orig. $84.12) Volume=6M Target=$80.12 Stop=$87.15
POSITION: AGU UQ - Sept. $85p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agu.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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