|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 08/02/2008
MCD (McDonalds--$59.77; -0.02; optionable): Burger franchises
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. MCD has recaptured the winning formula and is clearly the predominant fast food stock. After a strong rally to end 2007 MCD started a bigger basing process, forming a 5 month base December to April then the current three month pattern. Good base on base action is setting the foundation for the next big run higher. Nice break higher to start last week, then fading on lower trade to end the week, holding the 10 day EMA Friday. Very nice pattern and just waiting for the breakout move to give us the buy point.
Volume: 7.168M Avg Volume: 7.814M
BUY POINT: $61.38 Volume=12M Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.94
POSITION: MCD LL - Dec. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mcd.html
Play Date: 08/02/2008
MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems--$23.70; +1.95; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mpwr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Double bottom. MPWR is working on an 8 week double bottom, breaking higher Friday after its solid earnings report Thursday after the close. It is heading toward the breakout from this shorter base that is actually the last part of a larger 10 month cup with handle base. Strong money flow. MPWR has been a chip leaders when most chips were not leaders. Solid.
Volume: 1.78M Avg Volume: 811.614K
BUY POINT: $24.31 Volume=1.2M Target=$31.65 Stop=$2.68
POSITION: QPU LX - Sept. $22.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mpwr.html
Play Date: 08/02/2008
SOHU (Sohu.com--$79.21; +3.73; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-28-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. SOHU made us money on its mid-July run then we got out to let it test. It has done that, coming back to the 50 day EMA (74.93) last week, holding, moving laterally along this key support. Something of a cup with handle base has formed, but whatever you want to call it, SOHU looks ready to move higher after taking the breather or the pause that refreshes.
Volume: 2.277M Avg Volume: 2.662M
BUY POINT: $80.11 Volume=4M Target=$95.95 Stop=$76.55
POSITION: UZK LP - Dec. $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sohu.html
Play Date: 08/02/2008
SXE (Stanley, Inc.--$33.50; +2.27; no options): ITS services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sxe.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. SXE got nervous feet Thursday ahead of earnings, but it was no problem for the stock. Earnings were solid and SXE gapped higher Friday on very strong, above average volume. Like how it used the 50 day EMA (31.84) as support for the handle of the 8 month base, and you have to like the strong volume as it makes the move higher. Money flow looks great and as SXE continues its break higher we are looking to move in. It can really run when it gets its move on.
Volume: 584.398K Avg Volume: 190.329K
BUY POINT: $34.12 Volume=285K Target=$40.95 Stop=$31.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sxe.html
Play Date: 08/02/2008
TJX (TJ Max--$33.71; -0.44; optionable): Department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
EARNINGS: 8-12-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Kind of a ragged pattern, but the underlying theme is there: building toward a breakout and now making a higher low over support that is setting up the breakout from its 4 month base. It used the 200 day SMA at 31 as support for the base and surged mid-July to a new high. It tumbled back in the market selling, held the 50 day, and then started back up last week. Very nice set up for a move higher from here, and it can move well. When it gets going we are ready to move in.
Volume: 7.195M Avg Volume: 5.827M
BUY POINT: $35.21 Volume=8.5M Target=$41.95 Stop=$32.96
POSITION: TJX JG - Oct. $35c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tjx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/02/2008
WTI (W&T Offshore--$44.32; 0.00; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wti.html
EARNINGS: 8-5-08 before the open
STATUS: Put. Going to the well again with WTI. It formed an umbrella top from late May to mid-July, starting a stair-step lower with a pair of breakdowns starting in early July and then mid-July. After that fall it worked laterally last week, making it back up to the 10 day EMA (45.81) last week but stalling there. Money flow is diving. The drillers started to struggle when it was apparent Congress was going to do nothing with respect to offshore drilling. Earnings are out Tuesday, but we anticipate this news to drive it lower to our target so we are looking at moving in on Monday when we get the chance.
Volume: 721.288K Avg Volume: 1.01M
BUY POINT: $43.55 Volume=1.3M Target=$39.50 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: WTI UI - Sept. $45p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wti.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
