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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/02/2008
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$28.42; +0.39; optionable): Private prisons
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
EARNINGS: 8-7-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After being locked up for the past year or so, CXW is setting up to make a break higher. It has formed a 4 month base at what looks to be the end of its larger pattern, spending the last two weeks moving laterally on low volume, forming the handle, the point where the last uncommitted owners give up and sell as it looks as if the rebound has failed at prior resistance. Showing some very good action here and looking for CXW to make a jailbreak on strong trade to give us the entry point. May wait until earnings to make the move. If we does and we do in before the earnings it will be with just a partial position and then we see how the stock performs and when we can add positions if we want to do that.
Volume: 653.054K Avg Volume: 762.695K
BUY POINT: $28.79 Volume=900K Target=$32.95 Stop=$27.55
POSITION: CXW LE - Dec. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cxw.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 08/02/2008
CF (CF Industries--$162.54; -0.92; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cf.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice surge on earnings Tuesday and Wednesday, driving CF off the second bottom of its 6 week base. Paused Thursday and Friday on lower volume, moving laterally and a bit lower, starting to form the handle to the base to set it up for a new breakout and a new high. It just started the handle process so it may take two to three more sessions to finish it off and set up the breakout, but a great pattern and we want to ready to move in as CF makes the breakout move.
Volume: 1.808M Avg Volume: 2.737M
BUY POINT: $168.32 Volume=4M Target=$199.88 Stop=$158.89
POSITION: CJW KL - Nov. $160c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cf.html
Play Date: 08/02/2008
SOHU (Sohu.com--$79.21; +3.73; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-28-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. SOHU made us money on its mid-July run then we got out to let it test. It has done that, coming back to the 50 day EMA (74.93) last week, holding, moving laterally along this key support. Something of a cup with handle base has formed, but whatever you want to call it, SOHU looks ready to move higher after taking the breather or the pause that refreshes.
Volume: 2.277M Avg Volume: 2.662M
BUY POINT: $80.11 Volume=4M Target=$95.95 Stop=$76.55
POSITION: UZK LP - Dec. $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sohu.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/02/2008
WTI (W&T Offshore--$44.32; 0.00; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wti.html
EARNINGS: 8-5-08 before the open
STATUS: Put. Going to the well again with WTI. It formed an umbrella top from late May to mid-July, starting a stair-step lower with a pair of breakdowns starting in early July and then mid-July. After that fall it worked laterally last week, making it back up to the 10 day EMA (45.81) last week but stalling there. Money flow is diving. The drillers started to struggle when it was apparent Congress was going to do nothing with respect to offshore drilling. Earnings are out Tuesday, but we anticipate this news to drive it lower to our target so we are looking at moving in on Monday when we get the chance.
Volume: 721.288K Avg Volume: 1.01M
BUY POINT: $43.55 Volume=1.3M Target=$39.50 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: WTI UI - Sept. $45p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wti.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ACL: Still surging after earnings on 7-23-08
BAX: Setting up for a new buy.
BKE: Forecast 8-21-08
BMI: No announcement on 7-21-08 but a nice break higher and now testing it
CALM: No announcement but what a strong pattern
CMTL: Researching date
FCN: Early August
IBM: Setting up for the next breakout move
NCR: Reported earnings but no split. Still in the pattern and waiting to see if it will provide a breakout move.
TMX: No split announcement yet, but massing for a stronger break higher.
WSO: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/02/2008
MCD (McDonalds--$59.77; -0.02; optionable): Burger franchises
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. MCD has recaptured the winning formula and is clearly the predominant fast food stock. After a strong rally to end 2007 MCD started a bigger basing process, forming a 5 month base December to April then the current three month pattern. Good base on base action is setting the foundation for the next big run higher. Nice break higher to start last week, then fading on lower trade to end the week, holding the 10 day EMA Friday. Very nice pattern and just waiting for the breakout move to give us the buy point.
Volume: 7.168M Avg Volume: 7.814M
BUY POINT: $61.38 Volume=12M Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.94
POSITION: MCD LL - Dec. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mcd.html
Play Date: 08/02/2008
TJX (TJ Max--$33.71; -0.44; optionable): Department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
EARNINGS: 8-12-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Kind of a ragged pattern, but the underlying theme is there: building toward a breakout and now making a higher low over support that is setting up the breakout from its 4 month base. It used the 200 day SMA at 31 as support for the base and surged mid-July to a new high. It tumbled back in the market selling, held the 50 day, and then started back up last week. Very nice set up for a move higher from here, and it can move well. When it gets going we are ready to move in.
Volume: 7.195M Avg Volume: 5.827M
BUY POINT: $35.21 Volume=8.5M Target=$41.95 Stop=$32.96
POSITION: TJX JG - Oct. $35c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tjx.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/26/2008
IBM (International Business Machines--$126.64; -1.34; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Pattern has morphed to the reverse head and shoulders. Closed at the 18 day EMA Friday on low trade. This is where it has to start the move to make the breakout or it faces a double top situation. To recap: After breaking higher last week on a strong earnings report, IBM is moving laterally just below 130, trading in a flat range. It is forming the consolidation to its 8 week pattern, the handle shakeout at the prior high reached in May as the base started. After this test of the 10 day EMA (127.58) we are looking for a renewed breakout on volume to move into new positions.
Volume: 4.939M Avg Volume: 8.013M
BUY POINT: $128.55 Volume=10M Target=$145.95 Stop=$126.44
POSITION: IBM JF - Oct. $130c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibm.html
Play Date: 07/29/2008
WSO (Watsco--$49.57; -0.30; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still testing the strong mid-July earnings run, showing a nice tight doji Friday right on top of the 10 day EMA. That is telling us WSO is ready to move this week so we need to be ready as it makes its break higher. To recap: Raced higher on strong earnings, clearing an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.33) as support. Spent the past week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (48.35) Monday, holding, then breaking higher Tuesday. Tuesday volume was nothing to get all excited about, but really like the pattern and the position for a rapid gain higher. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Ready to move in as WSO continues its move higher.
Volume: 148.026K Avg Volume: 317.538K
BUY POINT: $50.77 Volume=450K Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: WSO KJ - Nov. $50c (54 delta, 104 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wso.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/31/2008
ATVID (Activision, Inc.--$35.24; -0.74; optionable): Multimedia game, graphics software. Splits 2:1 on a date to be determined
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvid.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08 after the close
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Earnings were out and ATVID gapped lower but held the 50 day EMA and rebounded to cut the loss and hold its pattern. Just going to let it work through this report and if it shows us a break higher from this pattern, great. To recap: Announced its results after hours and they were impressive, but the stock was down 0.75 after the news. Nice 7 week pattern has formed with ATVID coming back to the 18 day EMA (35.35) the past week. Nice hold at near support and will see if it makes the breakout on the earnings results or pretty near thereafter. Really solid results with a nice pattern to set up the next run.
Volume: 6.927M Avg Volume: 5.26M
BUY POINT: $36.69 Volume=7.5M Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.77
POSITION: AQV KG - Nov. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/atvid.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/18/2008
IXYS (Ixys Corporation--$12.14; -0.10; optionable): Power semiconductors, integrated circuits, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ixys.html
EARNINGS: Late August
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still in great shape, holding over the 18 day EMA in a tight range on low volume. Just has to show the move. To recap: After a roaring surge in late May on its last earnings report IXYS has formed the current 6 week base over a rising 50 day EMA that still has some catching up to get to IXYS. IXYS formed this base on top of the October peak that started the 8 month base IXYS jumped out of in May. A nice consolidation that used the market selling in early July to put in the second bottom to the base and lay the groundwork for the next breakout and run higher toward a 3-year high. Very solid. There are a group of semiconductor stocks moving to the fore similar to a cycling team moving to the front of the peloton to position itself for the ending sprint. Okay, a bit heavy on the Tour de France references of late, but when you have a sprinter such as Mark Cavendish taking four sprint stages you tend to get carried away.
Volume: 195.464K Avg Volume: 257.528K
BUY POINT: $12.66 Volume=350K Target=$15.31 Stop=$11.77
POSITION: UXS JV - Oct. $12.50c (49 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ixys.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
AMT (American Tower--$41.63; -0.27; optionable): Cell phone towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-30-08 before the open
STATUS: Double bottom. After a strong Wednesday move following earnings, AMT faded to end the week, but after selling Friday it rebounded to hold over the 200 day SMA with a doji with tail; that candlestick signal often indicates a rebound. That is what we are looking for to give us the entry point. To recap: AMT announced earnings before the Wednesday open and gapped higher. Thursday it faded back, holding part of the gain as volume dropped back. Will see how it handles this test of break higher and if it holds and resumes on more volume then it is a buy as it continues the move out of this 8 week base. May take a few days to set up, forming a handle to the base to give it a better launch point.
Volume: 4.329M Avg Volume: 4.124M
BUY POINT: $42.88 Volume=5.8M Target=$48.95 Stop=$41.31
POSITION: AMT JZ - Oct. 42.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amt.html
Play Date: 07/31/2008
BIDU (Baidu.com--$344.17; -2.98; optionable): Chinese internet search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Faded Friday on low volume, still testing back from the trendline and still setting up to make the next key move, the break of the trendline. To recap: BIDU has moved up to the December 2007/May 2008 down trendline at 325, tapping at it on Wednesday and fading on low volume Thursday. Going to be patient and see if BIDU makes just a modest test and then blows through the trendline on some good volume. That is our cue to move in.
Volume: 1.476M Avg Volume: 3.577M
BUY POINT: $353.23 Volume=4M Target=$399.45 Stop=$343.22
POSITION: BPJ IJ - Sept. $350c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bidu.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$47.31; -0.61; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: 8-4-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still setting up nicely, testing the 10 day EMA (46.52) on the Thursday and Friday lows and rebounding. Very nice set up for the break higher; many China stocks are in recovery mode and set up well. To recap: Seeing this pattern quite a bit of late: a larger double bottom with handle with the handle forming its own little double bottom with handle over the past four weeks. CMED rallied with the market, moving off its second leg in the double bottom. Pulled back some Thursday on low volume, tapping the 10 day EMA (45.27) on the low and then rebounding to recoup some losses, bouncing a big more Friday. It looks ready to test a bit more toward the 10 day EMA and when it bounces off that on solid trade we start picking up some positions.
Volume: 736.256K Avg Volume: 538.628K
BUY POINT: New: On a further break higher on even better volume (orig. $47.04) Volume=800K Target=$56.95 Stop=$45.12
POSITION: QCY LI - Dec. $45c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmed.html
Play Date: 07/30/2008
ENER (Energy Conversion Devices--$68.41; -1.52; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ener.html
EARNINGS: 8-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Forming the handle to its short base, fading Friday but holding easily over near support and on very low volume. May take a bit more time to finish the handle, but if it takes off again we are on it. To recap: After a strong May to late June surge ENER has tested back to the key 50 day EMA (63.03), hitting it in early July, bouncing, but then losing its drive. It sold back to the 50 day EMA and tapped the same 60 level it hit one session intraday in early July on its first bottom. Bounced and volume is moving higher. Strong money flow is leading the way higher and with volume continuing higher on a further upside move we are ready to move in.
Volume: 1.496M Avg Volume: 3.446M
BUY POINT: $68.94 Volume=500K Target=$79.75 Stop=$66.11
POSITION: EQI IM - Sept. $65c (64 delta) or EQI LN - Dec. $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ener.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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