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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/05/2008
AAP (Advance Auto Parts--$43.02; +1.67; optionable): Auto parts stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aap.html
EARNINGS: 8-6-08 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. AAP is starting the breakout move, rallying on above average volume Tuesday as it clears a 5.5 month base. Got the dips in early July with the market selling, but then rebounded, holding the pattern on some good volume as it recovered. Earnings are out after the close Wednesday so there is some risk at getting in on a continued break higher Wednesday. It has set up a nice base, however, just below a new high, indicating the market anticipates good results. Thus we are looking at taking at least a few positions ahead of the results if it continues.
Volume: 2.842M Avg Volume: 1.764M
BUY POINT: $43.24 Volume=1.8M Target=$51.95 Stop=$41.31
POSITION: AAP LH - Dec. $40c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aap.html
Play Date: 08/05/2008
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$47.50; +1.17; optionable): Medical appliances, equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-16-08
STATUS: Test breakout. STJ gapped higher on earnings, moving just over 48 as it rallied out of a 14 week cup base, part of a larger 10 month pattern. Big move taking it to the mid-2007 peak, the jumping off point before it takes on the all-time higher near 55. After that break higher it took a break to end July, coming back to the 10 day EMA (46.57) on lower trade. Nice test. Tuesday STJ broke higher on the best volume in three weeks with trade well above average. Excellent money flow. Ready to move in as STJ continues its move higher.
Volume: 5.555M Avg Volume: 3.525M
BUY POINT: $47.77 Volume=3.8M Target=$54.95 Stop=$45.77
POSITION: STJ JI - Oct. $45c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stj.html
Play Date: 08/05/2008
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$33.49; +1.67; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
EARNINGS: 8-14-08 before the open
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. URBN is one of the few retailers in good patterns in position to make the break higher. TJX made its break higher Tuesday. Looking for URBN to do the same out of this 12 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA key support to make the second low in July. Rallied up off that level and has put in a lateral move the past week above the 50 and 90 day MA, showing solid price/volume action with volume spikes on the upside sessions. Money flow is screaming higher ahead of price and URBN looks loaded to and ready to follow it.
Volume: 3.997M Avg Volume: 3.82M
BUY POINT: $34.48 Volume=5.7M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.07
POSITION: URQ LG - Dec. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/urbn.html
Leader Play:
Play Date: 08/05/2008
MR (Mindray Medical Intl.--$40.03; +1.27; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mr.html
EARNINGS: No date announced yet but announced last quarter on May 7
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MR is setting up well, forming a handle consolidation the past few sessions at the 10 day EMA near support, putting the finishing touches on a 9 week base that is part of a much larger 11 month pattern. Chinese stocks are setting up well despite calls they are finished, and this base at a higher low sets MR up nicely to make the break higher for us.
Volume: 543.939K Avg Volume: 693.795K
BUY POINT: $40.57 Volume=1M Target=$48.75 Stop=$38.18
POSITION: MR JH - Oct. $40c (56 delta)) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ACL: Continuing its run up the d10 day EMA after earnings on 7-23-08
BAX: Another nice break higher
BKE: Forecast 8-21-08. Trying to come back after that plunk lower Monday
BMI: No announcement on 7-21-08. Now setting up again after a quick but sharp test of support near 53
CALM: No announcement but still moving higher
CMTL: Researching date. Will have to pull its castanets out of the fire
FCN: Early August. Close to making that break higher
IBM: Getting closer to that next break higher.
MCD: Researching date. Order up: MCD starts the play nicely.
NCR: Reported earnings but no split. Will see if it can shape up again off of this 50 day EMA.
TJX: Tentatively set for 8-12-08. Nice breakout.
TMX: No split announcement yet, but massing for a stronger break higher. Sure wish it could show some volume.
WSO: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/05/2008
BMI (Badger Meter--$56.19; +2.93; no options): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-21-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Looking for a new position in BMI after that sharp pullback Thursday to Monday took it below the 18 day EMA (54.29) but it managed to hold a range of support from 52.50 to 53ish. It has made the breakout move twice from an 11 week double bottom with handle pattern, the first on earnings, but it came right back for a full test. Then it broke higher again only to come back for a full test last week. Tuesday volume jumped well above average as BMI started upside again, looking for a new high once more. Will see if third time is the charm; certainly has the strength behind it as the upside sessions enjoy a load of volume. Strong money flow to boot along with some excellent fundamentals growth rates.
Volume: 275.216K Avg Volume: 143.502K
BUY POINT: $57.55 Volume=225K Target=$65.95 Stop=$53.91
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bmi.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/29/2008
CSX (CSX Corp.--$66.27; +1.76; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Surged higher in late July but then slipped right back to start August. Hled over near support on lower volume, forming the handle to the pattern. Bounced Tuesday on rising trade. If it can continue the move on better trade (as with the other rails), it is a buy. To recap: Nice little 10 week base has formed to consolidate the March to early June run. Very solid base to set a new run and money flow is leading the way.
Volume: 4.793M Avg Volume: 5.007M
BUY POINT: New: 66.55 (orig. $65.34) Volume=7M Target=$74.95 Stop=$62.15
POSITION: CSX KM - Nov. $65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/csx.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
IBM (International Business Machines--$128.87; +1.31; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume is edging higher after a week of no pulse as IBM moved laterally just over the 18 day EMA (127). It is set up, just looking for a more definitive break on more definitive volume. To recap: After breaking higher last week on a strong earnings report, IBM is moving laterally just below 130, trading in a flat range. It is forming the consolidation to its 8 week pattern, the handle shakeout at the prior high reached in May as the base started. After this test of the 10 day EMA (127.58) we are looking for a renewed breakout on volume to move into new positions.
Volume: 6.968M Avg Volume: 7.945M
BUY POINT: New: On a strong price move on strong volume (orig. $128.55) Volume=10M Target=$145.95 Stop=$126.44
POSITION: IBM JF - Oct. $130c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibm.html
Play Date: 07/29/2008
WSO (Watsco--$50.01; +0.61; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Tried to make a more definitive move Tuesday with volume edging higher, but could not hold the move. Very nice, just needs to give us a move we can work with. To recap: Raced higher on strong earnings, clearing an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.33) as support. Spent the past week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (48.35) Monday, holding, then breaking higher Tuesday. Tuesday volume was nothing to get all excited about, but really like the pattern and the position for a rapid gain higher. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Ready to move in as WSO continues its move higher.
Volume: 214.771K Avg Volume: 315.38K
BUY POINT: $50.77 Volume=450K Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: WSO KJ - Nov. $50c (54 delta, 104 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wso.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/26/2008
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$48.48; +2.11; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
STATUS: After a long slide from July, APH is trying to bottom on the 90 day SMA (46.13) and start a new run, jumping Tuesday on stronger, above average volume. If it continues this volume this leader is a buy.
Volume: 1.674M Avg Volume: 1.337M
BUY POINT: $48.89 Volume=2M Target=$56.95 Stop=$47.48
POSITION: APH JI - Oct. $45c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
IXYS (Ixys Corporation--$12.02; -0.12; optionable): Power semiconductors, integrated circuits, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ixys.html
EARNINGS: Late August
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally, testing lower to the 50 day SMA on the lows (11.85) the past two sessions, rebounding off that level. That shows there are buyers at that level. Volume remains low, so it is still in another accumulation phase. Just going to wait and let this chip stock show us it is worthy of our money with a break higher. To recap: After a roaring surge in late May on its last earnings report IXYS has formed the current 6 week base over a rising 50 day EMA that still has some catching up to get to IXYS. IXYS formed this base on top of the October peak that started the 8 month base IXYS jumped out of in May. A nice consolidation that used the market selling in early July to put in the second bottom to the base and lay the groundwork for the next breakout and run higher toward a 3-year high. Very solid. There are a group of semiconductor stocks moving to the fore similar to a cycling team moving to the front of the peloton to position itself for the ending sprint. Okay, a bit heavy on the Tour de France references of late, but when you have a sprinter such as Mark Cavendish taking four sprint stages you tend to get carried away.
Volume: 187.157K Avg Volume: 264.486K
BUY POINT: $12.66 Volume=350K Target=$15.31 Stop=$11.77
POSITION: UXS JV - Oct. $12.50c (49 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ixys.html
Play Date: 08/04/2008
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$25.91; +0.52; optionable): Chinese telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
EARNINGS: No date provided yet
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Breaking higher Tuesday, clearing the March/April down trendline. Volume did not come with it, however, so we held off. Looking good and with a bit more trade we can look at moving in. To recap: Forming a 4 month shallow cup, fading back late last week to test and make a higher low given Monday's bounce higher off the 90 day SMA. This base formed after CHT rallied January to late March for a 30% gain. This current base is consolidating the gain and laying the lines for the next breakout and run higher. Looking for it to move over the April to late July down trendline in the base, and looking for a bit of volume as it makes the move. That is our cue to move in for the next run higher.
Volume: 825.767K Avg Volume: 1.106M
BUY POINT: $25.81 Volume=1.5M Target=$30.95 Stop=$24.69
POSITION: CHT LE - Dec. $25c (56 delta, 135 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cht.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/02/2008
SOHU (Sohu.com--$75.39; -0.05; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-28-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Fell back to the 50 day EMA Monday, tried to move higher Tuesday, but faded back to that level, both sessions on very low volume so showing no real selling. Still in position to make the next break higher and give us an entry point. If there is a good volume surge on an upside move we can move in ahead of the original buy point, but want to see the trade. To recap: SOHU made us money on its mid-July run then we got out to let it test. It has done that, coming back to the 50 day EMA (74.93) last week, holding, moving laterally along this key support. Something of a cup with handle base has formed, but whatever you want to call it, SOHU looks ready to move higher after taking the breather or the pause that refreshes.
Volume: 1.141M Avg Volume: 2.625M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 77.55. Clear resistance: $80.11 Volume=4M Target=$95.95 Stop=$76.55
POSITION: UZK LP - Dec. $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sohu.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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