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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/06/2008
LL (Lumber Liquidators--$14.34; +0.09; no options): Home improvement stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ll.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-08 before the open
STATUS: Cup. Volume surged Wednesday as LL announced earnings. The news did not break it out of its 11 month pattern, but it did try a surge before slipping back to flat, closing right over the 50 day SMA. Strong money flow is setting LL up for a breakout to a new high. A new issue in November, this is LL's first really good base and it is set up to make the next break higher and a run toward a new high.
Volume: 576.756K Avg Volume: 293.968K
BUY POINT: $15.34 Volume=450K Target=$19.95 Stop=$14.27
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ll.html
Play Date: 08/06/2008
MTD (Mettler Toledo--$109.00; +1.05; optionable): Laboratory and industrial instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Surged on earnings then slid laterally the past two weeks, working on the handle to an 8 month base, waiting for the 10 day EMA (106.33) to catch up with it. It did that on the Tuesday low and then surged back up. Continued higher Wednesday on strong above average volume. Strong money flow is surging ahead of price, and we anticipate MTD make the breakout move and rally toward the December high up at 120. It can go further, but that is a good initial target and with the options it lands a 75%ish gain.
Volume: 484.978K Avg Volume: 334.066K
BUY POINT: $109.75 Volume=501K Target=$119.00 Stop=$106.00
POSITION: MTD JB - Oct. $110c (53 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtd.html
Play Date: 08/06/2008
PWR (Quanta Services--$32.59; +1.93; optionable): Construction contractors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-08 before the open
STATUS: Ascending base. Strong volume as PWR continued a move off the 90 day SMA (29.63), riding some good earnings as it makes a higher low at that support level that held in early July. A neat little 7 week pattern has formed at the end of a 9 month base, and it has shown great upside volume on the runs higher in the pattern, just as it is doing now. Excellent position for a break to an 8 year high. Ready to move in as PWR continues this break on strong volume.
Volume: 5.574M Avg Volume: 2.627M
BUY POINT: $33.24 Volume=3M Target=$39.95 Stop=$30.91
POSITION: PWR KF - Nov. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pwr.html
Play Date: 08/06/2008
QLGC (Qlogic--$19.36; +0.52; optionable): Storage networking solutions and infrastructure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-21-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. QLGC is in a long, long base, the most recent part of it a 1.5 year effort that saw an ugly earnings announcement in July 2007 that crushed it. Since then it has recovered, and this July the earnings were well-received and QLGC broke sharply higher out of a 20 week flat base. Strong surge up to 19, then a two week lateral move, holding the gains as it waited for the 10 day EMA (18.56) to catch up with it. Strong volume Wednesday as QLGC broke higher out of the plateau. Looking to move in as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 7.104M Avg Volume: 4.143M
BUY POINT: $19.52 Volume=5M Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.45
POSITION: QLC JW - Oct. $17.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qlgc.html
Play Date: 08/06/2008
TJX (TJ Max--$34.47; -0.91; optionable): Department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
EARNINGS: 8-12-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Kind of a ragged pattern, but the underlying theme is there: building toward a breakout and now making a higher low over support that is setting up the breakout from its 4 month base. It used the 200 day SMA at 31 as support for the base and surged mid-July to a new high. It tumbled back in the market selling, held the 50 day, and then started back up last week. Surged Tuesday on strong trade, testing the move Wednesday on lower trade. Nice opportune pullback to give us the entry as it starts back up.
Volume: 7.935M Avg Volume: 5.943M
BUY POINT: $35.48 Volume=7.5M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.54
POSITION: TJX JG - Oct. $35c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tjx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/06/2008
FRO (Frontline Ltd.--$58.49; +2.38; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fro.html
EARNINGS: 8-29-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Formed this topping pattern from late May to late July, then crumbled lower to start August, gapping lower Friday and Monday. Held some support at 55 and started the bounce Tuesday, continuing Wednesday on significantly lower volume. May move up to 60.50 to fill that second gap that took it below the 90 day SMA (60.68); that would be the optimal point for it to fail and for us to move in, and if it does we will let it and then move in as it fades back. If it turns back ahead of that, however, we are going to be ready to move in and ride the second tumble lower toward the 200 day SMA (51.50), though there is another gap to fill way down at 48 in mid-April. A move to the initial target lands a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 1.623M Avg Volume: 1.518M
BUY POINT: $58.18 Volume=1.8M Target=$52.00 Stop=$60.75
POSITION: FRO UL - Sept. $60p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fro.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/02/2008
SOHU (Sohu.com--$77.20; +1.81; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-28-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Reached down to the 90 day SMA and then rebounded, setting up the run higher. Just need to see the break higher on stronger volume to give us the entry point. To recap: SOHU made us money on its mid-July run then we got out to let it test. It has done that, coming back to the 50 day EMA (74.93) last week, holding, moving laterally along this key support. Something of a cup with handle base has formed, but whatever you want to call it, SOHU looks ready to move higher after taking the breather or the pause that refreshes.
Volume: 1.462M Avg Volume: 2.602M
BUY POINT: $80.11 Volume=4M Target=$95.95 Stop=$76.55
POSITION: UZK LP - Dec. $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sohu.html
Play Date: 07/29/2008
WSO (Watsco--$50.01; 0.00; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working laterally, showing a nice tight doji at the 10 day EMA (49.39). Narrowing range, setting up the break higher, looking good. Just need some volume to push it. To recap: Raced higher on strong earnings, clearing an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.33) as support. Spent the past week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA (48.35) Monday, holding, then breaking higher Tuesday. Tuesday volume was nothing to get all excited about, but really like the pattern and the position for a rapid gain higher. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Ready to move in as WSO continues its move higher.
Volume: 111.024K Avg Volume: 313.835K
BUY POINT: $50.77 Volume=450K Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: WSO KJ - Nov. $50c (54 delta, 104 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wso.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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