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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/09/2008
ARO (Aeropostale--$34.40; +2.00; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aro.html
EARNINGS: 8-21-08
STATUS: Cup. Another one of the leading retailers, ARO is coming off the bottom of a solid 12 week base formed after the April breakout and run higher from a longer 10 month base. Interestingly, during the July selling and worries about the economy and consumer, it sold all the way down to 28 intraday, completely testing the breakout from that prior base, then it shot back up to close within the confines of its pattern. It continued forming up and Friday was breaking nicely higher though volume slipped back below average as it did. With the great performance in the leading retailers last week we are looking for ARO to show us the breakout this week and move to an all-time high of its own.
Volume: 2.816M Avg Volume: 2.866M
BUY POINT: $34.77 Volume=4M Target=$41.95 Stop=$32.34
POSITION: ARO JG - Oct. $35c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aro.html
Play Date: 08/09/2008
CRM (Salesforce.com--$69.59; +1.97; optionable): Sales force management software, services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
EARNINGS: 8-20-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CRM is always one of our favorite stocks to play because it moves so darn well. After a volatile run higher March to June it fell into the current 7 week base, testing the 200 day SMA in the July selling, rebounding, then forming the second bottom in late July. Started this month well, tested, and then Friday was back at it on the best volume in three weeks. Looking for CRM to continue the move this week and that will be our cue to move in.
Volume: 2.078M Avg Volume: 1.776M
BUY POINT: $70.22 Volume=2.5M Target=$79.95 Stop=$66.77
POSITION: CRM KN - Nov. $70c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/crm.html
Play Date: 08/09/2008
CYBS (Cybersource--$18.52; +0.50; optionable): Electronic payment for internet sellers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cybs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CYBS has made us some money in the past and it has set up once more to make another run higher with the current 9 week accumulation base. Great volume Tuesday as CYBS leapt higher but then it sold back to the 10 day EMA where it reloaded and was up again Friday though on lower trade. Nice pattern and it is in position to give us a nice breakout and move beyond a 7 year high.
Volume: 633.344K Avg Volume: 941.663K
BUY POINT: $19.32 Volume=1.4M Target=$23.32 Stop=$17.97
POSITION: CXQ JW - Oct. $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cybs.html
Play Date: 08/09/2008
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$74.26; +0.51; optionable): Chinese training services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Something of a ragged cup but a definite pattern as EDU works on a four week handle to its 12 week base. Got a bit wild to start the month, but held the 50 and 200 day SMA that are basically coincident, then jumped higher the last half of the week. EDU is well-positioned to move higher, and when it does it can run like the wind. Low volume of late, and looking for stronger volume as it makes the break through resistance and clears this base. A top stock in terms of earnings growth rate.
Volume: 235.16K Avg Volume: 648.083K
BUY POINT: $76.88 Volume=975K Target=$88.75 Stop=$72.11
POSITION: EDU JO - Oct. $75c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/edu.html
Play Date: 08/09/2008
ESRX (Express Scripts--$72.65; +2.48; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-30-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ESRX was setting up in May for a breakout from a 5 month base but . . . it sold back, falling into the current 9 week, nicely formed pattern. It managed a break from that base (a reverse head and shoulders) then couldn't hold it in the selling into July. The bigger pattern is an 8 month ascending triangle. Okay so it has the credentials with respect to the pattern. It also has the ability to rally like a bat out of hell when it gets going. Great surge higher following its earnings results, then it slipped into a lateral handle, breaking sharply higher Friday. Volume was lower but above average. Looking for that trade to quicken as it continues the move. Very solid and it looks as if ESRX is ready for one of its periodic solid, long runs.
Volume: 2.826M Avg Volume: 2.516M
BUY POINT: $73.12 Volume=3.5M Target=$83.95 Stop=$69.55
POSITION: XTQ KN - Nov. $70c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esrx.html
Play Date: 08/09/2008
SXE (Stanley, Inc.--$36.06; +0.40; no options): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sxe.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Breakout test. SXE shot higher to start August after its earnings announcement, breaking out from an 8 month double bottom with handle base. Classic pattern with a nice low volume handle leading up to the high volume breakout. First serious big base for SXE since coming public in October 2006. Great set up for a breakout and nice, long run higher. Another play on a stock that enjoys some of the strongest earnings and sales growth rates.
Volume: 114.732K Avg Volume: 200.798K
BUY POINT: $36.67 Volume=245K Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.65
POSITION: - Stock (no optoin chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sxe.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/07/2008
ACN (Accenture--$41.74; +0.07; optionable): Management consulting services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-26-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Took a pause Friday even as the rest of the market surged, but that doesn't change our view of this pattern and the potential for a breakout and run. Very solid. To recap: Surging volume Thursday as ACN makes a higher low over near support at the 18 day EMA (40.84), ready to make the breakout from its 9 week base. Solid action using the 50 day EMA (39.94) as support in the higher lows with a top at 42. Part of a larger 14 month cup with handle base, a great foundation for a breakout and strong run higher, making a new high along the way.
Volume: 2.659M Avg Volume: 3.223M
BUY POINT: $42.11 Volume=4M Target=$48.45 Stop=$40.69
POSITION: ACN KH - Nov. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/acn.html
Play Date: 08/06/2008
MTD (Mettler Toledo--$109.00; +1.06; optionable): Laboratory and industrial instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Closed out the week doing its work, still forming the lateral handle to its base. Very solid and just going to wait for the breakout move. To recap: Surged on earnings then slid laterally the past two weeks, working on the handle to an 8 month base, waiting for the 10 day EMA (106.33) to catch up with it. It did that on the Tuesday low and then surged back up. Continued higher Wednesday on strong above average volume. Strong money flow is surging ahead of price, and we anticipate MTD make the breakout move and rally toward the December high up at 120. It can go further, but that is a good initial target and with the options it lands a 75%ish gain.
Volume: 271.54K Avg Volume: 333.492K
BUY POINT: $109.75 Volume=501K Target=$119.00 Stop=$106.00
POSITION: MTD JB - Oct. $110c (53 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtd.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
PKI (Perkinelmer--$29.50; +0.53; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PKI was cheating higher at the end of the week, moving up all week but finally getting some volume Thursday and Friday with trade moving up to average as PKI tapped at the July highs. Looking very ready to make the break out of its 11 month base. Just needs to show us the break on continued improving volume.
Volume: 1.223M Avg Volume: 1.172M
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$33.95 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: PKI LG - Dec. $30c (53 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pki.html
Play Date: 08/06/2008
QLGC (Qlogic--$18.82; -0.08; optionable): Storage networking solutions and infrastructure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-21-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Couldn't capitalize on the Wednesday break higher, fading back to tap the 10 day EMA (18.66) on the Friday low and bouncing modestly. Now it has tested, and we will see if that delivers the next break higher that we can buy into. To recap: QLGC is in a long, long base, the most recent part of it a 1.5 year effort that saw an ugly earnings announcement in July 2007 that crushed it. Since then it has recovered, and this July the earnings were well-received and QLGC broke sharply higher out of a 20 week flat base. Strong surge up to 19, then a two week lateral move, holding the gains as it waited for the 10 day EMA (18.56) to catch up with it. Strong volume Wednesday as QLGC broke higher out of the plateau. Looking to move in as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 5.089M Avg Volume: 4.151M
BUY POINT: $19.52 Volume=5M Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.45
POSITION: QLC JW - Oct. $17.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qlgc.html
Play Date: 07/29/2008
WSO (Watsco--$50.00; +1.16; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Really good action as WSO continued the test into the weekend, tapping the 18 day EMA (48.50) Thursday and then bouncing off that level Friday on rising volume. Excellent action and simply waiting for the break higher to signal it is ready for us to buy it. To recap: Raced higher on strong earnings, clearing an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.33) as support. Spent the past week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA Monday, holding, then breaking higher Tuesday. Tuesday volume was nothing to get all excited about, but really like the pattern and the position for a rapid gain higher. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Ready to move in as WSO continues its move higher.
Volume: 249.058K Avg Volume: 309.423K
BUY POINT: $50.77 Volume=450K Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: WSO KJ - Nov. $50c (54 delta, 104 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wso.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/07/2008
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$85.52; -1.74; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-22-08
STATUS: Put. FCX gapped lower Friday, not giving us the opportunity to get in. After falling over 5 clicks on the low it rebounded to close down quite modestly all things considered. Commodities, oil and gold got a bit oversold Friday, and as noted in the market summary, they may reverse course a bit to test the gut punch from last week. If that is the case FCX may make another test up toward the 10 day EMA at 94. If it does and volume remains low we have an even better entry point. To recap: Double topped in May and June then rode the 18 day EMA (94.68) lower before falling off the table hard to start August. Bottomed just over 75 and bounced on good volume, but on Thursday as it tried to move through near resistance at the 10 day EMA (90.29) it turned and slipped back down, running out of volume. It is a bit oversold overall, but this 15 point rebound up to near resistance and the close well off the intraday high suggests FCX is going to head back down again. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 13.398M Avg Volume: 10.698M
BUY POINT: New: Will let it bounce back up this week, see if it makes the 10 day EMA at 94 or fails earlier. Either way we have a good entry point (orig. $86.77) Volume=16M Target=$78.76 Stop=$89.22
POSITION: FCX UR - Sept. $90p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcx.html
Play Date: 08/07/2008
OSG (Overseas Shipholding--$68.51; +0.18; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-29-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Gapped lower Friday, then retrenched a bit itself, racing back up to the 200 day SMA but then failing and sliding back to close flat. That is fine; it likely will go ahead and fall this week and give us the move we want. To recap: Set up a 12 week head and shoulders then collapsed hard to start August, tumbling on strong volume. Bounced Tuesday and Wednesday on lower trade, then rolled back over Thursday on another strong volume surge, falling back through the 200 day SMA it broke on the Wednesday bounce higher (71.85). It came back up for air, but it now nose down, tail up, heading for the ocean floor with money flow dragging it down toward Davey Jones' locker. A move to the bottom lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 923.531K Avg Volume: 782.877K
BUY POINT: $67.78 Volume=1M Target=$62.65 Stop=$70.11
POSITION: OSG UN - Sept. $70p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/osg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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