|
|
trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/11/2008
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$25.58; +0.33; optionable): China telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
EARNINGS: Date not yet released. Last announced 4-29-08
STATUS: Cup. Nice volume Friday as CHT recovered from the Thursday selling that most stocks suffered. Great recovery in its 18 week base, making a higher low on that move. Not much trade Monday, but set up well to make the break over the down trendline. It closed right at that level on Monday. Looking for volume to surge as CHT clears the trendline.
Volume: 1.017M Avg Volume: 1.177M
BUY POINT: $26.08 Volume=1.5M Target=$30.95 Stop=$24.77
POSITION: CHT LE - Dec. $25c (56 delta, 135 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cht.html
Play Date: 08/11/2008
CSH (Cash America Intl.--$43.79; +0.40; optionable): Pawn shots
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csh.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume Monday as CSH probed the breakout level and then came back to stay in the handle to its 15 week base. This is the kind of economy for CSH, one where consumers are stressed and trying to find ways to stretch the dollars. Looking for a breakout that will send CSH to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.149M Avg Volume: 690.3K
BUY POINT: $45.11 Volume=1M Target=$51.95 Stop=$42.11
POSITION: CSH LI - Dec. $45c (57 delta, 160 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/csh.html
Play Date: 08/11/2008
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$308.25; -0.01; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-22-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped lower in April, gapped higher in July, both moves on earnings. That is an island reversal pattern and a bullish one. It has faded the past three weeks to test that gap, holding at the 18 day EMA (301.94), a sign of strength. Nice low volume test of the move and now looking for volume to jump back up as ISRG makes the break higher off this support. Nice set up.
Volume: 432.962K Avg Volume: 861.845K
BUY POINT: $310.44 Volume=1.2M Target=$349.95 Stop=$301.68
POSITION: AXV JA - Oct. $310c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/isrg.html
Play Date: 08/11/2008
RKT (Rock-Tenn--$37.66; +1.08; optionable): Packaging products, merchandising displays
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rkt.html
EARNINGS: 7-28-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Broke out after its earnings and rallied higher, but in last Thursdays selling RKT faded. Turned out to be just a test as it tapped the 18 day EMA and bounced back, rallying on strong Friday volume and again Monday on lower though still above average trade. Nice action as RKT looks for a new all-time high. Transports (truckers, rails) formed up and broke out earlier. Now paperboard companies are as well. There is something behind the small caps' break higher.
Volume: 578.26K Avg Volume: 452.6K
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=475K Target=$44.95 Stop=$35.23
POSITION: RKT JG - Oct. $35c (67 delta, 142 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rkt.html
Play Date: 08/11/2008
TKLC (Tekelec--$16.76; +0.09; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tklc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-08
STATUS: Test breakout. TKLC gapped higher on 8-6-08 on its earnings results. After the gap it has come back to test, tapping toward the 10 day EMA (16.24) on the Friday and Monday low then rebounding. It tapped lower in early June, based, then gapped higher last week; that pattern is an island reversal, a bullish pattern. May come back to test the 10 day EMA fully. We will let it finish the test and then as TKLC breaks higher again on some solid trade that is our buy point.
Volume: 1.108M Avg Volume: 642.12K
BUY POINT: $17.21 Volume=850K Target=$20.95 Stop=$16.14
POSITION: KQ KC - Nov. $15c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tklc.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 08/11/2008
SYNA (Synaptics--$53.60; -0.38; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Excellent surge for us to start August, moving out of its 7 week cup with handle base, part of a much larger 8 month cup with handle base. Great surge, great volume, then moving in a tight lateral range on low volume. Love a stock that refuses to give up its gains and looking for SYNA to make another nice break higher and make us some more money. Love buying into leaders ready to make the next great move.
Volume: 764.2K Avg Volume: 1.068M
BUY POINT: $54.69 Volume=1.4M Target=$64.95 Stop=$51.22
POSITION: QYG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/syna.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/07/2008
ACN (Accenture--$41.67; -0.07; optionable): Management consulting services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-26-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Tight range continues right below the breakout as volume jumped up to average Monday. Just waiting for the breakout. To recap: Surging volume Thursday as ACN makes a higher low over near support at the 18 day EMA (40.84), ready to make the breakout from its 9 week base. Solid action using the 50 day EMA (39.94) as support in the higher lows with a top at 42. Part of a larger 14 month cup with handle base, a great foundation for a breakout and strong run higher, making a new high along the way.
Volume: 3.56M Avg Volume: 3.248M
BUY POINT: $42.11 Volume=4M Target=$48.45 Stop=$40.69
POSITION: ACN KH - Nov. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/acn.html
Play Date: 08/09/2008
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$72.77; -1.49; optionable): Chinese training services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Faded some Monday on very low volume but held the 10 day EMA. Still in solid shape, still just waiting for the break higher. To recap: Something of a ragged cup but a definite pattern as EDU works on a four week handle to its 12 week base. Got a bit wild to start the month, but held the 50 and 200 day SMA that are basically coincident, then jumped higher the last half of the week. EDU is well-positioned to move higher, and when it does it can run like the wind. Low volume of late, and looking for stronger volume as it makes the break through resistance and clears this base. A top stock in terms of earnings growth rate.
Volume: 208.829K Avg Volume: 644.253K
BUY POINT: $76.88 Volume=975K Target=$88.75 Stop=$72.11
POSITION: EDU JO - Oct. $75c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/edu.html
Play Date: 08/06/2008
MTD (Mettler Toledo--$108.00; -1.00; optionable): Laboratory and industrial instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A tight doji at the 10 day EMA Monday even though MTD faded some. Very low trade so no selling. Tight lateral move. Just waiting for the break higher. To recap: Surged on earnings then slid laterally the past two weeks, working on the handle to an 8 month base, waiting for the 10 day EMA (106.33) to catch up with it. It did that on the Tuesday low and then surged back up. Continued higher Wednesday on strong above average volume. Strong money flow is surging ahead of price, and we anticipate MTD make the breakout move and rally toward the December high up at 120. It can go further, but that is a good initial target and with the options it lands a 75%ish gain.
Volume: 198.666K Avg Volume: 336.312K
BUY POINT: $109.75 Volume=501K Target=$119.00 Stop=$106.00
POSITION: MTD JB - Oct. $110c (53 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtd.html
Play Date: 08/06/2008
QLGC (Qlogic--$19.20; +0.38; optionable): Storage networking solutions and infrastructure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-21-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Bounced off the 10 day EMA Monday after testing a solid jump last Wednesday faded to near support. Sure looks good. Waiting for the break to come, however, no matter how good it looks. To recap: QLGC is in a long, long base, the most recent part of it a 1.5 year effort that saw an ugly earnings announcement in July 2007 that crushed it. Since then it has recovered, and this July the earnings were well-received and QLGC broke sharply higher out of a 20 week flat base. Strong surge up to 19, then a two week lateral move, holding the gains as it waited for the 10 day EMA (18.56) to catch up with it. Strong volume Wednesday as QLGC broke higher out of the plateau. Looking to move in as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 4.703M Avg Volume: 4.156M
BUY POINT: $19.52 Volume=5M Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.45
POSITION: QLC JW - Oct. $17.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qlgc.html
Play Date: 07/29/2008
WSO (Watsco--$50.90; +0.90; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Bounced higher Monday on rising volume, but it was still below average. Nice tight lateral move and showing some life, but want to see a bit more strength. If it does it is a buy. To recap: Raced higher on strong earnings, clearing an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.33) as support. Spent the past week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA Monday, holding, then breaking higher Tuesday. Tuesday volume was nothing to get all excited about, but really like the pattern and the position for a rapid gain higher. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Ready to move in as WSO continues its move higher.
Volume: 299.007K Avg Volume: 309.316K
BUY POINT: New: A continued move from the Monday close on some more improving volume (orig. $50.77) Volume=450K Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: WSO KJ - Nov. $50c (54 delta, 104 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wso.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/07/2008
OSG (Overseas Shipholding--$70.25; +1.74; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-29-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. After the sharp Thursday drop, OSG is making a low volume bounce to test, rising again Monday on very low, below average volume. Letting it make this test; may make it back up to the 200 day SMA (71.84). Moved the buy point up to account for this move and watching for the turn back down to move in. To recap: Set up a 12 week head and shoulders then collapsed hard to start August, tumbling on strong volume. Bounced Tuesday and Wednesday on lower trade, then rolled back over Thursday on another strong volume surge, falling back through the 200 day SMA it broke on the Wednesday bounce higher (71.85). It came back up for air, but it now nose down, tail up, heading for the ocean floor with money flow dragging it down toward Davey Jones' locker. A move to the bottom lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 611.837K Avg Volume: 772.052K
BUY POINT: $68.44 Volume=1M Target=$62.65 Stop=$71.85
POSITION: OSG UN - Sept. $70p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/osg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trade stock
stock recommendation
|
