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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/12/2008
ILMN (Illumina--$90.37; +1.53; optionable): Biotechnology. Splits 2:1 on 9-23-08
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ilmn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-22-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. ILMN has been on a 45 degree incline trend line for a long time. Announced a split and gapped higher in mid-July, rallying to 95. It fell back to start August, holding above the 50 day EMA (86.17) as it works laterally the past week, showing a strong volume spike last Thursday. Looking for ILMN to kick higher and start the next move upside to give us the entry point.
Volume: 1.073M Avg Volume: 1.081M
BUY POINT: $90.88 Volume=1.5M Target=$99.95 Stop=$88.44
POSITION: IQA LR - Dec. $90c (54 delta) or IQA IQ - Sept. $85c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ilmn.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 08/12/2008
AMT (American Tower--$42.76; -0.26; optionable): Cell towers, communication relays
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-30-08
STATUS: Cup. Nice bounce up off the 200 day SMA Friday and Monday, then pausing Tuesday on very low trade as AMT makes a higher low in its 12 week base. Making another run at it as AMT sets up once more for a break higher. Saw some strong trade at the end of July on its earnings, and want to see that again as it resumes the break higher.
Volume: 2.278M Avg Volume: 4.035M
BUY POINT: $43.48 Volume=6M Target=$49.95 Stop=$42.08
POSITION: AMT JZ - Oct. $42.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amt.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ACL: Still consolidating just over the 10 day EMA, moving laterally after the break higher on earnings announced 7-23-08
BAX: Researching next date
BMI: No announcement on 7-21-08. Still moving very well, pulling back some Tuesday.
CALM: Holding its gains after a great break higher
FCN: Early August. FCN bolted higher Monday to a new high. Great. Want to see a test and if we can get an entry point out of that.
IBM: Struggling.
MCD: Researching date and enjoying the run.
SNA: Didn't announce with its earnings, but still solid for a new breakout move.
TJX: Tentatively set for 8-12-08
TMX: Broke higher though not a ton of trade
WSO: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/12/2008
BCR (C.R. Bard--$93.89; +1.13; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After posting a new high starting the year, BCR butted against 100 for three months before giving up and falling into the current 19 week base. Nice surge with earnings in late July, then testing the past three weeks, coming back to near support at the 18 day EMA (92.56) and holding nicely. Now we are looking for a strong move higher up off of this higher low and lateral consolidation.
Volume: 581.285K Avg Volume: 685.829K
BUY POINT: $94.38 Volume=1.1M Target=$104.95 Stop=$92.22
POSITION: BCR JS - Oct. $95c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 08/12/2008
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$86.35; -0.81; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. BDX tried to break its February/March down trendline in late July but failed. It tested, coming back to the 50 day EMA to start August, and then rebounding back through the trendline (85.75) last Friday. Came back to test that break Monday and Tuesday, tapping the trendline and the coincident 10 day EMA on the low (85.86) and bounced. Looking to move in as BDX holds the near support and then starts back up on volume.
Volume: 1.419M Avg Volume: 1.668M
BUY POINT: $87.12 Volume=2.5M Target=$98.00 Stop=$85.68
POSITION: BDX LQ - Dec. $85c (60 delta, 172 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bdx.html
Play Date: 08/12/2008
GPRO (Gen Probe--$60.20; -0.55; optionable): Nucleic acid probe-based products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Exploded higher to start August on a strong earnings report, breaking through its May peak that is the hump in the big 11 month double bottom with handle base. After that surge GPRO is testing, easing back slightly but holding most all of its breakout gains. Nice low volume on the lateral move is setting up the next run higher. Very solid performer ready to make a good run.
Volume: 447.962K Avg Volume: 554.926K
BUY POINT: $61.77 Volume=832K Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.84
POSITION: PSU KL - Nov. $60c (57 delta, 270 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gpro.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/07/2008
SNA (Snap-On Inc.--$58.30; -1.43; optionable): Small tools
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Up and down the past week but holding up and forming a new handle above the 10 day EMA at 57.60. Nice action and waiting for this up and down to enter and for SNA showing us it is ready for our money. To recap: Don't get the wrong impression from our description of SNA's business; despite its small tools it is quite a manly stock with a great pattern. Bounced back up off the 10 day EMA test on Friday. Volume was pretty good and likely it was good enough to enter. If it continues we will look to move in. To recap: SNA surged higher Tuesday on strong volume, breaking over the handle high in its 11 week base. Made a new high in the run up to May and June then formed this base to consolidate that move and set up for the next. The selling the past two sessions pushed it back down in the handle, but SNA remains in a good pattern and in good position and just looking for it to follow the surging money flow and continue the move higher.
Volume: 392.083K Avg Volume: 569.202K
BUY POINT: Looks like it needs to clear 59.80 (orig. $58.08) Volume=850K Target=$66.95 Stop=$55.97
POSITION: SNA LK - Dec. $55c (63 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sna.html
Play Date: 07/29/2008
WSO (Watsco--$50.54; -0.36; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still setting up for the move and pausing Tuesday after a higher volume gain Monday. Nice and looking for the break higher to give us the entry point when it clears this near resistance. To recap: Raced higher on strong earnings, clearing an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.33) as support. Spent the past week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA Monday, holding, then breaking higher Tuesday. Tuesday volume was nothing to get all excited about, but really like the pattern and the position for a rapid gain higher. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Ready to move in as WSO continues its move higher.
Volume: 115.49K Avg Volume: 309.316K
BUY POINT: $50.77 Volume=450K Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: WSO KJ - Nov. $50c (54 delta, 104 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wso.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/06/2008
QLGC (Qlogic--$19.02; -0.18; optionable): Storage networking solutions and infrastructure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-21-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still waiting for the next breakout to show us QLGC is ready to run again. Still working laterally, still set up, still need to see the move. It is a nice setup. To recap: QLGC is in a long, long base, the most recent part of it a 1.5 year effort that saw an ugly earnings announcement in July 2007 that crushed it. Since then it has recovered, and this July the earnings were well-received and QLGC broke sharply higher out of a 20 week flat base. Strong surge up to 19, then a two week lateral move, holding the gains as it waited for the 10 day EMA (18.56) to catch up with it. Strong volume Wednesday as QLGC broke higher out of the plateau. Looking to move in as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 4.412M Avg Volume: 4.156M
BUY POINT: $19.52 Volume=5M Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.45
POSITION: QLC JW - Oct. $17.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qlgc.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/07/2008
ACN (Accenture--$41.02; -0.65; optionable): Management consulting services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-26-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Faded to the 18 day EMA on the close but low volume and still in the nice pattern holding near support. In position and just waiting for the move. To recap: Surging volume Thursday as ACN makes a higher low over near support at the 18 day EMA (40.84), ready to make the breakout from its 9 week base. Solid action using the 50 day EMA (39.94) as support in the higher lows with a top at 42. Part of a larger 14 month cup with handle base, a great foundation for a breakout and strong run higher, making a new high along the way.
Volume: 2.296M Avg Volume: 3.248M
BUY POINT: $42.11 Volume=4M Target=$48.45 Stop=$40.69
POSITION: ACN KH - Nov. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/acn.html
Play Date: 08/11/2008
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$305.99; -2.26; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-22-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Faded modestly Tuesday on low trade, holding near the 10 day EMA and still in great position to make the break higher. To recap: Gapped lower in April, gapped higher in July, both moves on earnings. That is an island reversal pattern and a bullish one. It has faded the past three weeks to test that gap, holding at the 18 day EMA (301.94), a sign of strength. Nice low volume test of the move and now looking for volume to jump back up as ISRG makes the break higher off this support. Nice set up.
Volume: 351.77K Avg Volume: 861.845K
BUY POINT: $310.44 Volume=1.2M Target=$349.95 Stop=$301.68
POSITION: AXV JA - Oct. $310c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/isrg.html
Play Date: 08/11/2008
SYNA (Synaptics--$53.16; -0.44; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still moving laterally on no volume as the range tightens even more. Very solid action, refusing to give up its gains. May take another session or two to finish the move; we can be patient. To recap: Excellent surge for us to start August, moving out of its 7 week cup with handle base, part of a much larger 8 month cup with handle base. Great surge, great volume, then moving in a tight lateral range on low volume. Love a stock that refuses to give up its gains and looking for SYNA to make another nice break higher and make us some more money. Love buying into leaders ready to make the next great move.
Volume: 776.621K Avg Volume: 1.068M
BUY POINT: $54.69 Volume=1.4M Target=$64.95 Stop=$51.22
POSITION: QYG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/syna.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/07/2008
OSG (Overseas Shipholding--$69.87; -0.38; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-29-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Doji at resistance at 70. After the modest bounce that indicates OSG may be ready to head lower. Looking for it to do so and give us the downside play. To recap: Set up a 12 week head and shoulders then collapsed hard to start August, tumbling on strong volume. Bounced Tuesday and Wednesday on lower trade, then rolled back over Thursday on another strong volume surge, falling back through the 200 day SMA it broke on the Wednesday bounce higher (71.85). It came back up for air, but it now nose down, tail up, heading for the ocean floor with money flow dragging it down toward Davey Jones' locker. A move to the bottom lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 487.254K Avg Volume: 772.052K
BUY POINT: $68.44 Volume=1M Target=$62.65 Stop=$71.85
POSITION: OSG UN - Sept. $70p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/osg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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