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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/13/2008
ASIA (Asiainfo Hldgs--$13.48; +0.10; optionable): China security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asia.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Coming back to test the 50 day EMA (13.00) on low, below average volume as ASIA sets up the higher low for a run at a breakout to a new 6-year high. Very nice 10 week base has formed using the 200 day SMA on the July low as support and now making this higher low, ready to follow some strong money flow higher. Very solid set up at important support. Want to see that volume jump on the break higher given there was a high volume downside session last week.
Volume: 291.55K Avg Volume: 484.149K
BUY POINT: $14.28 Volume=725K Target=$17.89 Stop=$13.44
POSITION: EUJ JV - Oct. $12.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asia.html
Play Date: 08/13/2008
ATHR (Atheros Communications--$33.70; -0.31; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/athr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice low volume test of the 10 day EMA (32.62) on the intraday low, then snapping back. Forming the handle to its 10 week base nicely set up with a pair of bottoms on the 200 day SMA down at 28.50. May come back another day or two toward the 10 day EMA and snug up and then deliver the breakout to a new all-time high. This is part of a larger 10 month pattern, and looking for a big break higher here to give us the entry point. Very nice and a solid leader in earnings growth rates.
Volume: 922.846K Avg Volume: 1.764M
BUY POINT: $34.38 Volume=2.5M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.54
POSITION: QRA LF - Dec. $30c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/athr.html
Play Date: 08/13/2008
GTXI (GTX--$19.05; +0.66; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtxi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume moved up to average Wednesday as GTXI started to break higher, clearing the raft of closing highs from mid-July to early August. This is taking it out of a 14 week nicely formed base that is part of a much larger 17 month cup with a big reverse head and shoulders at the bottom. Excellent set up for a run toward that April 2007 high up near 24.
Volume: 230.403K Avg Volume: 293.375K
BUY POINT: $19.31 Volume=400K Target=$22.95 Stop=$17.96
POSITION: GQH KW - Nov. $17.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gtxi.html
Play Date: 08/13/2008
NTES (Netease.com--$24.05; +1.36; optionable): Chinese internet gaming, soft porn
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
EARNINGS: 8-13-08 after the close
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume Monday on a reach lower and reversal, and then again strong volume Wednesday as it moved off the 50 day EMA (22.28). Solid 12 week base just below the all time high, setting up for the next breakout move. Made a good start Wednesday with the price and volume move. Earnings were after hours and NTES was up though not exploding. That is what we are looking for to give us an entry point.
Volume: 3.168M Avg Volume: 1.414M
BUY POINT: $24.49 Volume=1.6M Target=$29.48 Stop=$22.69
POSITION: NQG LX - Dec. $22.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ctjq/ntes.html
Play Date: 08/13/2008
QLD (ProShares Ultra QQQ ETF--$80.63; -0.39; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qld.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Mirroring the overall NASDAQ, QLD is forming the handle to its 10 week base. It may take another day or two of work, and then we look for QLD to clear the 200 day SMA (82.36) on volume and give us the buy for a run up to the June high (92.55) as our initial target.
Volume: 14.971M Avg Volume: 15.593M
BUY POINT: $82.45 Volume=20M Target=$92.95 Stop=$79.48
POSITION: QLD JB - Oct. $80c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qld.html
Play Date: 08/13/2008
TRLG (True Religion Apparel--$28.27; -0.77; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trlg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-08
STATUS: Test breakout. TRLG was a new issue in mid-2005. It rallied in early 2006 to 24 and then fell into a 2.5 year trading range. It made the breakout in late May, then worked laterally in a range through early August. Then it blasted higher this month on strong volume, surging again Monday. It is now testing on lower trade, tapping the 18 day EMA on the Wednesday low and then rebounding for a gain to hold the 10 day EMA. Excellent position to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 1.696M Avg Volume: 822.662K
BUY POINT: $29.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.32
POSITION: ZJQ JF - Oct. $30c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/trlg.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/12/2008
ONNN (On Semiconductor--$10.34; +0.15; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/onnn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-08
STATUS: Cup. Still in the pattern, picking up some upside Wednesday on very low volume, still working in its pattern and indeed forming a handle on it. Very solid, looking for the breakout. To recap: This nice little 11 week base is actually the handle to a much larger 10 month cup with handle pattern. Gapped higher on its earnings report and has moved laterally and slightly upward since. May come back some to test the 10 day EMA (9.80) before resuming the move, but it is showing excellent strength and may not give much back before it turns up once more. A strong move on rising volume is what is needed to break it free from the mid-May peak that started this last phase of the base. Very solid.
Volume: 9.576M Avg Volume: 11.689M
BUY POINT: $10.51 Volume=15M Target=$12.89 Stop=$9.77
POSITION: OKU AB - Jan. $10c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/onnn.html
Play Date: 08/06/2008
QLGC (Qlogic--$19.37; +0.35; optionable): Storage networking solutions and infrastructure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-21-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Solid volume Wednesday as QLGC posted a nice gain and is ready to breakout the top of its 4 week lateral consolidation. Very nice and logically looks ready. To recap: QLGC is in a long, long base, the most recent part of it a 1.5 year effort that saw an ugly earnings announcement in July 2007 that crushed it. Since then it has recovered, and this July the earnings were well-received and QLGC broke sharply higher out of a 20 week flat base. Strong surge up to 19, then a two week lateral move, holding the gains as it waited for the 10 day EMA (18.56) to catch up with it. Strong volume Wednesday as QLGC broke higher out of the plateau. Looking to move in as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 5.008M Avg Volume: 4.16M
BUY POINT: $19.52 Volume=5M Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.45
POSITION: QLC JW - Oct. $17.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qlgc.html
Play Date: 08/11/2008
RKT (Rock-Tenn--$37.20; -0.14; optionable): Packaging products, merchandising displays
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rkt.html
EARNINGS: 7-28-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Testing back from the solid Monday move, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low (36.36) and rebounding to close flat. Good shakeout and it is ready to make the move. To recap: Broke out after its earnings and rallied higher, but in last Thursdays selling RKT faded. Turned out to be just a test as it tapped the 18 day EMA and bounced back, rallying on strong Friday volume and again Monday on lower though still above average trade. Nice action as RKT looks for a new all-time high. Transports (truckers, rails) formed up and broke out earlier. Now paperboard companies are as well. There is something behind the small caps' break higher.
Volume: 324.37K Avg Volume: 448.629K
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=475K Target=$44.95 Stop=$35.23
POSITION: RKT JG - Oct. $35c (67 delta, 142 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rkt.html
Play Date: 08/11/2008
SYNA (Synaptics--$52.45; -0.71; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still in the nice, nice low volume test of the prior surge, coming back toward the 10 day EMA (51.77) Wednesday. May make it all the way back. This is a leader that is testing, setting up our next buy point. To recap: Excellent surge for us to start August, moving out of its 7 week cup with handle base, part of a much larger 8 month cup with handle base. Great surge, great volume, then moving in a tight lateral range on low volume. Love a stock that refuses to give up its gains and looking for SYNA to make another nice break higher and make us some more money. Love buying into leaders ready to make the next great move.
Volume: 743.721K Avg Volume: 1.073M
BUY POINT: $54.32 Volume=1.4M Target=$64.95 Stop=$51.22
POSITION: QYG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/syna.html
Play Date: 08/11/2008
TKLC (Tekelec--$16.60; -0.07; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tklc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still a great test, tapping the 10 day EMA (16.37) on the Wednesday low and rebounding to close flat. Very nice orderly test and now it is ready to resume the breakout move. Very solid. To recap: TKLC gapped higher on 8-6-08 on its earnings results. After the gap it has come back to test, tapping toward the 10 day EMA (16.24) on the Friday and Monday low then rebounding. It tapped lower in early June, based, then gapped higher last week; that pattern is an island reversal, a bullish pattern. May come back to test the 10 day EMA fully. We will let it finish the test and then as TKLC breaks higher again on some solid trade that is our buy point.
Volume: 545.43K Avg Volume: 647.922K
BUY POINT: $17.21 Volume=850K Target=$20.95 Stop=$16.14
POSITION: KQ KC - Nov. $15c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tklc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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