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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/14/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$56.69; -0.12; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped lower on its earnings and sold down close to the 50 day EMA now at 49.50. It stormed back and moved to a new high, then came back to test the 10 day EMA Thursday and bounce. This is the kind of base it puts in and then races higher once more. After this pullback we are looking for GILD to finish the test and start back up. Want a bit more volume as it does.
Volume: 6.314M Avg Volume: 8.178M
BUY POINT: $57.21 Volume=12M Target=$66.85 Stop=$55.69
POSITION: GDQ KK - Nov. $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gild.html
Play Date: 08/14/2008
NSM (National Semiconductor--$23.28; +0.14; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
EARNINGS: 9-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After bottoming in March 2008, this is NSM's first real base, and it is a nice set up to spring it to the next level and on up toward the 2007 high near 30. A very good pattern to set the foundation for a run up to those highs.
Volume: 3.656M Avg Volume: 7.328M
BUY POINT: $23.89 Volume=11M Target=$28.85 Stop=$22.45
POSITION: NSM KX - Nov. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nsm.html
Play Date: 08/14/2008
XRAY (Dentsply--$41.57; +0.85; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-29-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong volume Thursday as XRAY jumped off the 200 day SMA (40.55), moving toward the breakout from its 8 month base. Tried to make the move in last July on the earnings, but it faded back, continuing the work on its base. Now it is back up knocking at the breakout and ready to follow some scorching money flow higher. Nice foundation has been put in and now it is ready to make the move.
Volume: 1.597M Avg Volume: 1.233M
BUY POINT: $42.11 Volume=1.8M Target=$47.85 Stop=$40.32
POSITION: XEQ JH - Oct. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 08/14/2008
RL (Ralph Lauren--$73.05; +3.30; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-08
STATUS: Test breakout. After an ugly decline July 2007 to January 2008, RL has been rebuilding. It based and then broke out in late May. Then it gave it up and fell into this base, a 10 week double bottom. Strong volume on the break higher, then a nice low volume test Tuesday and Wednesday, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low and rebounding. Then Thursday it was up sharply on a nice jump in above average volume. RL is ready to ride again, clearing some very important resistance on this move from May, and then Q4 2007. Very solid turnaround in progress.
Volume: 2.782M Avg Volume: 1.988M
BUY POINT: $73.77 Volume=2.2M Target=$84.95 Stop=$68.61
POSITION: RL JN - Oct. $70c (66 delta) &/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rl.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ACL: And still consolidating just over the 10 day EMA, moving laterally after the break higher on earnings announced 7-23-08
BAX: Researching next date
BDX: Researching date.
BCR: Still testing, still ready to make the move
BMI: No announcement on 7-21-08. Nice test of the breakout
CALM: Continuing higher
FCN: Early August. Making that test back to the 10 day EMA.
GPRO: Great set up for the breakout
IBM: Held the 90 day SMA and bounced.
MCD: Researching date and enjoying the run.
SNA: Didn't announce with its earnings, but solid and ready to make the break
TJX: Tentatively set for 8-12-08
TMX: Broke higher though not a ton of trade
WSO: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/14/2008
PNRA (Panera Bread--$54.51; +1.26; optionable): Great tasting bread
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnra.html
EARNINGS: 10-21-08
STATUS: Test breakout. PNRA is working its way out of a big base, coming off its low in January. Rallied into May then fell into this base, setting the stage for a new rally higher. Broke higher last week on strong, above average volume, then tested briefly Wednesday and again early Thursday, tapping at the 10 day EMA (52.31). Strong money flow is leading the way and after this little test it is ready to continue the run and the recovery.
Volume: 683.787K Avg Volume: 952.928K
BUY POINT: $55.04 Volume=1.4M Target=$65.95 Stop=$52.12
POSITION: UPA KK - Nov. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pnra.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/12/2008
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$86.63; -0.55; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Nice tight lateral move on low volume continues as BDX crouches over the 10 day EMA, ready to spring higher and follow the strong money flow. To recap: BDX tried to break its February/March down trendline in late July but failed. It tested, coming back to the 50 day EMA to start August, and then rebounding back through the trendline (85.75) last Friday. Came back to test that break Monday and Tuesday, tapping the trendline and the coincident 10 day EMA on the low (85.86) and bounced. Looking to move in as BDX holds the near support and then starts back up on volume.
Volume: 948.554K Avg Volume: 1.667M
BUY POINT: $87.12 Volume=2.5M Target=$98.00 Stop=$85.68
POSITION: BDX LQ - Dec. $85c (60 delta, 172 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bdx.html
Play Date: 08/12/2008
GPRO (Gen Probe--$60.29; -0.01; optionable): Nucleic acid probe-based products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Very tight lateral range as the 10 day EMA rises to meet it. Volume picked up to average Thursday and it looks ready to make the strong break higher and continue the breakout move. To recap: Exploded higher to start August on a strong earnings report, breaking through its May peak that is the hump in the big 11 month double bottom with handle base. After that surge GPRO is testing, easing back slightly but holding most all of its breakout gains. Nice low volume on the lateral move is setting up the next run higher. Very solid performer ready to make a good run.
Volume: 592.565K Avg Volume: 552.606K
BUY POINT: $61.77 Volume=832K Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.84
POSITION: PSU KL - Nov. $60c (57 delta, 270 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gpro.html
Play Date: 08/07/2008
SNA (Snap-On Inc.--$59.29; +1.56; optionable): Small tools
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Up and down again this time back up and near the breakout point. Still needs some volume but looks super still. To recap: Don't get the wrong impression from our description of SNA's business; despite its small tools it is quite a manly stock with a great pattern. Bounced back up off the 10 day EMA test on Friday. Volume was pretty good and likely it was good enough to enter. If it continues we will look to move in. To recap: SNA surged higher Tuesday on strong volume, breaking over the handle high in its 11 week base. Made a new high in the run up to May and June then formed this base to consolidate that move and set up for the next. The selling the past two sessions pushed it back down in the handle, but SNA remains in a good pattern and in good position and just looking for it to follow the surging money flow and continue the move higher.
Volume: 346.51K Avg Volume: 566.825K
BUY POINT: Looks like it needs to clear 59.80 (orig. $58.08) Volume=850K Target=$66.95 Stop=$55.97
POSITION: SNA LK - Dec. $55c (63 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sna.html
Play Date: 07/29/2008
WSO (Watsco--$50.28; +0.12; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Another strong stock moving in a very tight lateral range at the 10 day EMA, ready to follow that money flow higher. To recap: Raced higher on strong earnings, clearing an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.33) as support. Spent the past week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA Monday, holding, then breaking higher Tuesday. Tuesday volume was nothing to get all excited about, but really like the pattern and the position for a rapid gain higher. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Ready to move in as WSO continues its move higher.
Volume: 111.513K Avg Volume: 301.938K
BUY POINT: $50.77 Volume=450K Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: WSO KJ - Nov. $50c (54 delta, 104 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wso.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/12/2008
AMT (American Tower--$42.54; +0.16; optionable): Cell towers, communication relays
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-30-08
STATUS: Cup. Excellent set up for the next break higher, tapping the 10 day EMA on the low and holding over the 90 day SMA on the close. Nice low, low volume test and again, in excellent position to break higher. To recap: Nice bounce up off the 200 day SMA Friday and Monday, then pausing Tuesday on very low trade as AMT makes a higher low in its 12 week base. Making another run at it as AMT sets up once more for a break higher. Saw some strong trade at the end of July on its earnings, and want to see that again as it resumes the break higher.
Volume: 1.616M Avg Volume: 4.012M
BUY POINT: $43.48 Volume=6M Target=$49.95 Stop=$42.08
POSITION: AMT JZ - Oct. $42.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amt.html
Play Date: 08/13/2008
ATHR (Atheros Communications--$33.98; +0.28; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/athr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Broke higher Monday on solid volume and then moving laterally and testing the rest of the week on lower volume. Very solid, very much ready to make the break higher. To recap: Nice low volume test of the 10 day EMA (32.62) on the intraday low, then snapping back. Forming the handle to its 10 week base nicely set up with a pair of bottoms on the 200 day SMA down at 28.50. May come back another day or two toward the 10 day EMA and snug up and then deliver the breakout to a new all-time high. This is part of a larger 10 month pattern, and looking for a big break higher here to give us the entry point. Very nice and a solid leader in earnings growth rates.
Volume: 613.293K Avg Volume: 1.764M
BUY POINT: $34.38 Volume=2.5M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.54
POSITION: QRA LF - Dec. $30c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/athr.html
Play Date: 08/11/2008
SYNA (Synaptics--$53.20; +0.75; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice tap at the 10 day EMA and then a bounce Thursday. NO volume yet, but a great set up to make the next run higher. Sweet. To recap: Excellent surge for us to start August, moving out of its 7 week cup with handle base, part of a much larger 8 month cup with handle base. Great surge, great volume, then moving in a tight lateral range on low volume. Love a stock that refuses to give up its gains and looking for SYNA to make another nice break higher and make us some more money. Love buying into leaders ready to make the next great move.
Volume: 641.781K Avg Volume: 1.065M
BUY POINT: $54.32 Volume=1.4M Target=$64.95 Stop=$51.22
POSITION: QYG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/syna.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/07/2008
OSG (Overseas Shipholding--$71.13; -0.40; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-29-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Still ready to head lower, butting up against the 200 day SMA (71.87), showing a tight doji on low volume. It has made a gallant effort, now it is time to go down with the ship. To recap: Set up a 12 week head and shoulders then collapsed hard to start August, tumbling on strong volume. Bounced Tuesday and Wednesday on lower trade, then rolled back over Thursday on another strong volume surge, falling back through the 200 day SMA it broke on the Wednesday bounce higher (71.85). It came back up for air, but it now nose down, tail up, heading for the ocean floor with money flow dragging it down toward Davey Jones' locker. A move to the bottom lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 389.039K Avg Volume: 768.735K
BUY POINT: $68.44 Volume=1M Target=$62.65 Stop=$71.85
POSITION: OSG VN - Oct. $70p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/osg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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