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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 08/16/2008
ANSS (Ansys--$46.68; -0.53; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARINGS: Announced 8-7-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ANSS rallied to a new high in June, then fell into the current 10 week pattern. It used the 90 day SMA at 44 as support for the 'head' and rallied off that level before gapping higher early this month on earnings. Rallied back to the June high and then tested this past week, on low, below average volume, coming back to near support at the 10 day EMA on the close. Very nice set up for a new break higher off of this support. When it does that is when we move in.
Volume: 1.069M Avg Volume: 1.204M
BUY POINT: $48.57 Volume=1.8M Target=$55.95 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: QUS JI - Oct. $45c (63 delta, 175 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anss.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
ENER (Energy Conversion Devices--$70.07; +2.62; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ener.html
EARNINGS: 8-28-08
STATUS: CUP. Super breakout in May and then rallying to a new high at 82 in late June. After that run it needed a break and fell into the current 8 week base. Nice fade to the 50 day EMA (64.25), holding that key level the past 6 weeks, using it as support. Started higher Wednesday and gapped further Friday, up to the mid-July and late July interim peaks within the base. Very strong money flow is leading higher. Good set up and with some volume on the next break higher it is a buy.
Volume: 1.885M Avg Volume: 2.89M
BUY POINT: $71.32 Volume=4M Target=$81.95 Stop=$68.11
POSITION: EQI LN - Dec. $70c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ener.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
NETL (Netlogic Microsystems--$35.55; -0.19; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/netl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice tight flat move Tuesday through Friday as NETL forms the handle consolidation to its 10 week base, the final shakeout before it makes the break higher. Nice pattern, using the 200 day SMA (29.55) as support for the two bottoms, bouncing crisply off that level the first week of August. This pattern is acting as the handle to a large 2.5 year double bottom with handle base. Nice set up for the break higher, and we just wait for NETL to continue its handle formation; we buy when it breaks higher on a jump in volume.
Volume: 566.767K Avg Volume: 972.003K
BUY POINT: $36.75 Volume=1.5M Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.77
POSITION: LKT AG - Jan. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/netl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/16/2008
ACOR (Acorda Therapeutics--$27.99; -0.83; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acor.html
EARNINGS: 11-4-08
STATUS: Put. ACOR gapped higher in early June, jumping out of a 4 month base. Rallied on up to 34, but in July there was no volume. Hitting a new high on now volume is trouble. It rolled over and started to sell off hard in early August, hitting the 90 day SMA (27). It bounced off that level through Wednesday, but stalled at the 10 day EMA (29.17) and started back down on rising trade. Looking for ACOR to fill that gap toward 22. Our initial target is not that aggressive but if it is selling hard at that point we will let some positions continue lower. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 826.983K Avg Volume: 1.202M
BUY POINT: $27.68 Volume=1.2M Target=$24.10 Stop=$29.28
POSITION: QOR VF - Oct. $30p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/acor.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
APD (Air Products & Chemicals--$90.55; +0.25; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08
STATUS: Put. Looking to APD for another downside play. It formed a head and shoulders spanning May to July, breaking down below support at 95 to start August. Sold hard then rebounded last week, but stalled at the 10 day EMA (90.75) Thursday and Friday, showing a pair of candlestick dojis below that near resistance. Looking for APD to fail here and continue its downside move. This is just its first test of the break lower from the topping pattern, so there is still plenty of downside. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 1.312M Avg Volume: 1.729M
BUY POINT: $89.56 Volume=1.9M Target=$85.31 Stop=$92.22
POSITION: APD VR - Oct. $90p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apd.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
CEDC (Central European District--$65.00; -1.59; optionable): Polish alcoholic beverage importer/distributor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-4-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. CEDC formed a head and shoulders top spanning June to early August. It broke sharply lower on earnings, tumbling down to the 200 day SMA (60.62) on strong volume. It bounced at that level Tuesday, moving up to the 10 day EMA (66.45) Wednesday, but it bumped against that level through Friday and could not get through. It started to turn back over Friday. Looking for it to continue lower from here, moving down toward the 200 day. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 831.849K Avg Volume: 869.823K
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=1M Target=$61.00 Stop=$66.57
POSITION: CUV UM - Sept. $65p (-45 delta) or CUV VM - Oct. $65p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cedc.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Upside:
AMT
ASIA
ATHR
CYBS
NSM
ONNN
STST
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
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