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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/16/2008
ANSS (Ansys--$46.68; -0.53; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARINGS: Announced 8-7-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ANSS rallied to a new high in June, then fell into the current 10 week pattern. It used the 90 day SMA at 44 as support for the 'head' and rallied off that level before gapping higher early this month on earnings. Rallied back to the June high and then tested this past week, on low, below average volume, coming back to near support at the 10 day EMA on the close. Very nice set up for a new break higher off of this support. When it does that is when we move in.
Volume: 1.069M Avg Volume: 1.204M
BUY POINT: $48.57 Volume=1.8M Target=$55.95 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: QUS JI - Oct. $45c (63 delta, 175 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anss.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
VFC (VF Corp.--$77.97; +0.97; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-15-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. VFC peaked June/July 2007 and started the current 14 month downtrend. From February to early August it rode down the 200 day SMA (75), unable to crack the code to get back through. Two Fridays back it blasted higher through the 200 day SMA and the down trendline from February. Came back to test midweek last week, then bounced Friday though no volume yet. Strong money flow is leading sharply higher, and after the reversal and test of the trendline we are looking for VFC to turn and resume the move higher.
Volume: 682.477K Avg Volume: 955.34K
BUY POINT: $78.88 Volume=1.4M Target=$90.95 Stop=$76.11
POSITION: VFC KM - Nov. $75c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vfc.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/16/2008
CRR (Carbo Ceramics--$56.00; -1.86; optionable): Oil and gas services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Not all oil and gas is on the ropes or in the toilet. This service company is solid, forming a 7 week base over support at 50. Interesting as this base is the handle consolidation to a larger, 3 year double bottom with handle pattern. Very solid, setting up for the next breakout. Volume spiked Thursday as CRR jumped higher. After Friday it looks as if it is going to test and form more of a handle As it makes the next break higher on volume it is a buy.
Volume: 548.687K Avg Volume: 412.78K
BUY POINT: $57.95 Volume=625K Target=$66.95 Stop=$54.45
POSITION: CRR LK - Dec. $55c (63 delta, 174 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crr.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 08/16/2008
ENER (Energy Conversion Devices--$70.07; +2.62; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ener.html
EARNINGS: 8-28-08
STATUS: CUP. Super breakout in May and then rallying to a new high at 82 in late June. After that run it needed a break and fell into the current 8 week base. Nice fade to the 50 day EMA (64.25), holding that key level the past 6 weeks, using it as support. Started higher Wednesday and gapped further Friday, up to the mid-July and late July interim peaks within the base. Very strong money flow is leading higher. Good set up and with some volume on the next break higher it is a buy.
Volume: 1.885M Avg Volume: 2.89M
BUY POINT: $71.32 Volume=4M Target=$81.95 Stop=$68.11
POSITION: EQI LN - Dec. $70c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ener.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/16/2008
ACOR (Acorda Therapeutics--$27.99; -0.83; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acor.html
EARNINGS: 11-4-08
STATUS: Put. ACOR gapped higher in early June, jumping out of a 4 month base. Rallied on up to 34, but in July there was no volume. Hitting a new high on now volume is trouble. It rolled over and started to sell off hard in early August, hitting the 90 day SMA (27). It bounced off that level through Wednesday, but stalled at the 10 day EMA (29.17) and started back down on rising trade. Looking for ACOR to fill that gap toward 22. Our initial target is not that aggressive but if it is selling hard at that point we will let some positions continue lower. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 826.983K Avg Volume: 1.202M
BUY POINT: $27.68 Volume=1.2M Target=$24.10 Stop=$29.28
POSITION: QOR VF - Oct. $30p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/acor.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
APD (Air Products & Chemicals--$90.55; +0.25; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08
STATUS: Put. Looking to APD for another downside play. It formed a head and shoulders spanning May to July, breaking down below support at 95 to start August. Sold hard then rebounded last week, but stalled at the 10 day EMA (90.75) Thursday and Friday, showing a pair of candlestick dojis below that near resistance. Looking for APD to fail here and continue its downside move. This is just its first test of the break lower from the topping pattern, so there is still plenty of downside. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 1.312M Avg Volume: 1.729M
BUY POINT: $89.56 Volume=1.9M Target=$85.31 Stop=$92.22
POSITION: APD VR - Oct. $90p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apd.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
CEDC (Central European District--$65.00; -1.59; optionable): Polish alcoholic beverage importer/distributor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-4-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. CEDC formed a head and shoulders top spanning June to early August. It broke sharply lower on earnings, tumbling down to the 200 day SMA (60.62) on strong volume. It bounced at that level Tuesday, moving up to the 10 day EMA (66.45) Wednesday, but it bumped against that level through Friday and could not get through. It started to turn back over Friday. Looking for it to continue lower from here, moving down toward the 200 day. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 831.849K Avg Volume: 869.823K
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=1M Target=$61.00 Stop=$66.57
POSITION: CUV UM - Sept. $65p (-45 delta) or CUV VM - Oct. $65p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cedc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
ACL: And still consolidating just over the 10 day EMA, moving laterally after the break higher on earnings announced 7-23-08
BAX: Researching next date
BDX: Researching date.
BCR: Nice volume spike. Getting ready to move.
BMI: No announcement on 7-21-08. So much for the nice, orderly test.
CALM: Great week as it moves to a new high.
FCN: Early August. Making that test back to the 10 day EMA last week and bouncing
GPRO: Great set up for the breakout
IBM: Held the 90 day SMA and bounced.
MCD: Researching date and enjoying the run.
PNRA: Researching date but tentatively set for October
SNA: Didn't announce with its earnings, but solid and ready to make the break
TJX: Tentatively set for 8-12-08. Nothing on 8-12-08 as TJX comes back to test near support at the 10 day EMA last week.
TMX: Broke higher though not a ton of trade
WSO: Researching date
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/12/2008
BCR (C.R. Bard--$93.94; +1.47; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Great volume Friday as BCR bounced off the 18 day EMA. This is what we wanted to see and now just the breakout move on more solid trade gives us the entry point. To recap: After posting a new high starting the year, BCR butted against 100 for three months before giving up and falling into the current 19 week base. Nice surge with earnings in late July, then testing the past three weeks, coming back to near support at the 18 day EMA (92.56) and holding nicely. Now we are looking for a strong move higher up off of this higher low and lateral consolidation.
Volume: 784.363K Avg Volume: 684.849K
BUY POINT: $94.38 Volume=1.1M Target=$104.95 Stop=$92.22
POSITION: BCR JS - Oct. $95c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 08/12/2008
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$87.55; +0.92; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Good week for BDX, working laterally over the 10 day EMA, setting the continuation of the rebound move. A little bit of volume along the way would be nice. To recap: BDX tried to break its February/March down trendline in late July but failed. It tested, coming back to the 50 day EMA to start August, and then rebounding back through the trendline (85.75) last Friday. Came back to test that break Monday and Tuesday, tapping the trendline and the coincident 10 day EMA on the low (85.86) and bounced. Looking to move in as BDX holds the near support and then starts back up on volume.
Volume: 1.079M Avg Volume: 1.656M
BUY POINT: New: ON some volume as BDX continues higher (orig. $87.12) Volume=2.5M Target=$98.00 Stop=$85.68
POSITION: BDX LQ - Dec. $85c (60 delta, 172 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bdx.html
Play Date: 08/12/2008
GPRO (Gen Probe--$60.15; -0.14; optionable): Nucleic acid probe-based products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally in that tight range. The 10 day EMA (59.54) is finally catching up with it, and when it does that should help prompt GPRO along to the next breakout. Very solid. To recap: Exploded higher to start August on a strong earnings report, breaking through its May peak that is the hump in the big 11 month double bottom with handle base. After that surge GPRO is testing, easing back slightly but holding most all of its breakout gains. Nice low volume on the lateral move is setting up the next run higher. Very solid performer ready to make a good run.
Volume: 273.725K Avg Volume: 550.552K
BUY POINT: $61.77 Volume=832K Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.84
POSITION: PSU KL - Nov. $60c (57 delta, 270 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gpro.html
Play Date: 07/29/2008
WSO (Watsco--$50.85; +0.57; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wso.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Surged Friday but could not hold the move as volume, while up, remained well below average. Just waiting for a break that sticks and then we move in. To recap: Raced higher on strong earnings, clearing an 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (40.33) as support. Spent the past week testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA Monday, holding, then breaking higher Tuesday. Tuesday volume was nothing to get all excited about, but really like the pattern and the position for a rapid gain higher. Strong money flow leading the way higher. Ready to move in as WSO continues its move higher.
Volume: 193.789K Avg Volume: 300.562K
BUY POINT: New: $51.31 (orig. $50.77) Volume=450K Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: WSO KJ - Nov. $50c (54 delta, 104 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wso.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/14/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$56.26; -0.43; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Testing back a bit more to end the week, tapping below the 10 day EMA (55.95) and rebounding to close over that level. After this test it looks ready to go and continue the break higher. To recap: Gapped lower on its earnings and sold down close to the 50 day EMA now at 49.50. It stormed back and moved to a new high, then came back to test the 10 day EMA Thursday and bounce. This is the kind of base it puts in and then races higher once more. After this pullback we are looking for GILD to finish the test and start back up. Want a bit more volume as it does.
Volume: 5.485M Avg Volume: 8.178M
BUY POINT: $57.21 Volume=12M Target=$66.85 Stop=$55.69
POSITION: GDQ KK - Nov. $55c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gild.html
Play Date: 08/14/2008
NSM (National Semiconductor--$23.32; +0.04; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
EARNINGS: 9-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on a nice handle on low volume. Looks as if it will take a couple more sessions, but it is getting primed to make the move. To recap: After bottoming in March 2008, this is NSM's first real base, and it is a nice set up to spring it to the next level and on up toward the 2007 high near 30. A very good pattern to set the foundation for a run up to those highs.
Volume: 3.71M Avg Volume: 7.328M
BUY POINT: $23.89 Volume=11M Target=$28.85 Stop=$22.45
POSITION: NSM KX - Nov. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nsm.html
Play Date: 08/14/2008
XRAY (Dentsply--$41.68; +0.11; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-29-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher Friday but was up and down and could not do anything with the move. Still solid, still looking for that break over 42 on strong volume to give us the entry. To recap: Strong volume Thursday as XRAY jumped off the 200 day SMA (40.55), moving toward the breakout from its 8 month base. Tried to make the move in last July on the earnings, but it faded back, continuing the work on its base. Now it is back up knocking at the breakout and ready to follow some scorching money flow higher. Nice foundation has been put in and now it is ready to make the move.
Volume: 796.981K Avg Volume: 1.233M
BUY POINT: $42.11 Volume=1.8M Target=$47.85 Stop=$40.32
POSITION: XEQ JH - Oct. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/13/2008
ATHR (Atheros Communications--$33.81; -0.17; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/athr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving laterally Tuesday through Friday on low volume after a strong Monday move. Forming that nice handle and in great position to make the break higher. Very nice. To recap: Nice low volume test of the 10 day EMA (32.62) on the intraday low, then snapping back. Forming the handle to its 10 week base nicely set up with a pair of bottoms on the 200 day SMA down at 28.50. May come back another day or two toward the 10 day EMA and snug up and then deliver the breakout to a new all-time high. This is part of a larger 10 month pattern, and looking for a big break higher here to give us the entry point. Very nice and a solid leader in earnings growth rates.
Volume: 890.871K Avg Volume: 1.751M
BUY POINT: $34.38 Volume=2.5M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.54
POSITION: QRA LF - Dec. $30c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/athr.html
SYNA (Synaptics--$54.03; +0.83; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Bounced off the 10 day EMA (52.40) Friday on rising but still below average volume. Looks ready to make the move this week. Very nice. To recap: Excellent surge for us to start August, moving out of its 7 week cup with handle base, part of a much larger 8 month cup with handle base. Great surge, great volume, then moving in a tight lateral range on low volume. Love a stock that refuses to give up its gains and looking for SYNA to make another nice break higher and make us some more money. Love buying into leaders ready to make the next great move.
Volume: 838.158K Avg Volume: 1.062M
BUY POINT: $54.32 Volume=1.4M Target=$64.95 Stop=$51.22
POSITION: QYG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/syna.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/07/2008
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$84.39; -2.45; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-22-08
STATUS: Put. Turned down Friday though volume remained light. Still plenty of room downside to make some money and if FCX continues lower after expiration Friday then we buy some puts on the downside. To recap: Double topped in May and June then rode the 18 day EMA (94.68) lower before falling off the table hard to start August. Bottomed just over 75 and bounced on good volume, but on Thursday as it tried to move through near resistance at the 10 day EMA (90.29) it turned and slipped back down, running out of volume. It is a bit oversold overall, but this 15 point rebound up to near resistance and the close well off the intraday high suggests FCX is going to head back down again. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 9.824M Avg Volume: 11.044M
BUY POINT: New: 84.08 (orig. $86.77) Volume=16M Target=$76.76 Stop=$89.22
POSITION: FCX UR - Sept. $90p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcx.html
Play Date: 08/07/2008
OSG (Overseas Shipholding--$70.06; -1.07; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-29-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. After a doji below the 200 day SMA (71.86) Thursday, OSG turned lower Friday though volume remained very light. If it can continue lower on Monday, however, we will move in. To recap: Set up a 12 week head and shoulders then collapsed hard to start August, tumbling on strong volume. Bounced Tuesday and Wednesday on lower trade, then rolled back over Thursday on another strong volume surge, falling back through the 200 day SMA it broke on the Wednesday bounce higher (71.85). It came back up for air, but it now nose down, tail up, heading for the ocean floor with money flow dragging it down toward Davey Jones' locker. A move to the bottom lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 366.877K Avg Volume: 764.203K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move lower (orig. $70.88) Volume=1M Target=$64.91 Stop=$71.98
POSITION: OSG UN - Sept. $70p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/osg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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