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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/16/2008
ANSS (Ansys--$46.68; -0.53; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARINGS: Announced 8-7-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ANSS rallied to a new high in June, then fell into the current 10 week pattern. It used the 90 day SMA at 44 as support for the 'head' and rallied off that level before gapping higher early this month on earnings. Rallied back to the June high and then tested this past week, on low, below average volume, coming back to near support at the 10 day EMA on the close. Very nice set up for a new break higher off of this support. When it does that is when we move in.
Volume: 1.069M Avg Volume: 1.204M
BUY POINT: $48.57 Volume=1.8M Target=$55.95 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: QUS JI - Oct. $45c (63 delta, 175 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anss.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
ENER (Energy Conversion Devices--$70.07; +2.62; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ener.html
EARNINGS: 8-28-08
STATUS: CUP. Super breakout in May and then rallying to a new high at 82 in late June. After that run it needed a break and fell into the current 8 week base. Nice fade to the 50 day EMA (64.25), holding that key level the past 6 weeks, using it as support. Started higher Wednesday and gapped further Friday, up to the mid-July and late July interim peaks within the base. Very strong money flow is leading higher. Good set up and with some volume on the next break higher it is a buy.
Volume: 1.885M Avg Volume: 2.89M
BUY POINT: $71.32 Volume=4M Target=$81.95 Stop=$68.11
POSITION: EQI LN - Dec. $70c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ener.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
NETL (Netlogic Microsystems--$35.55; -0.19; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/netl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice tight flat move Tuesday through Friday as NETL forms the handle consolidation to its 10 week base, the final shakeout before it makes the break higher. Nice pattern, using the 200 day SMA (29.55) as support for the two bottoms, bouncing crisply off that level the first week of August. This pattern is acting as the handle to a large 2.5 year double bottom with handle base. Nice set up for the break higher, and we just wait for NETL to continue its handle formation; we buy when it breaks higher on a jump in volume.
Volume: 566.767K Avg Volume: 972.003K
BUY POINT: $36.75 Volume=1.5M Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.77
POSITION: LKT AG - Jan. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/netl.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
VFC (VF Corp.--$77.97; +0.97; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vfc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-15-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. VFC peaked June/July 2007 and started the current 14 month downtrend. From February to early August it rode down the 200 day SMA (75), unable to crack the code to get back through. Two Fridays back it blasted higher through the 200 day SMA and the down trendline from February. Came back to test midweek last week, then bounced Friday though no volume yet. Strong money flow is leading sharply higher, and after the reversal and test of the trendline we are looking for VFC to turn and resume the move higher.
Volume: 682.477K Avg Volume: 955.34K
BUY POINT: $78.88 Volume=1.4M Target=$90.95 Stop=$76.11
POSITION: VFC KM - Nov. $75c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vfc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/16/2008
ACOR (Acorda Therapeutics--$27.99; -0.83; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acor.html
EARNINGS: 11-4-08
STATUS: Put. ACOR gapped higher in early June, jumping out of a 4 month base. Rallied on up to 34, but in July there was no volume. Hitting a new high on now volume is trouble. It rolled over and started to sell off hard in early August, hitting the 90 day SMA (27). It bounced off that level through Wednesday, but stalled at the 10 day EMA (29.17) and started back down on rising trade. Looking for ACOR to fill that gap toward 22. Our initial target is not that aggressive but if it is selling hard at that point we will let some positions continue lower. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 826.983K Avg Volume: 1.202M
BUY POINT: $27.68 Volume=1.2M Target=$24.10 Stop=$29.28
POSITION: QOR VF - Oct. $30p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/acor.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
APD (Air Products & Chemicals--$90.55; +0.25; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08
STATUS: Put. Looking to APD for another downside play. It formed a head and shoulders spanning May to July, breaking down below support at 95 to start August. Sold hard then rebounded last week, but stalled at the 10 day EMA (90.75) Thursday and Friday, showing a pair of candlestick dojis below that near resistance. Looking for APD to fail here and continue its downside move. This is just its first test of the break lower from the topping pattern, so there is still plenty of downside. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 1.312M Avg Volume: 1.729M
BUY POINT: $89.56 Volume=1.9M Target=$85.31 Stop=$92.22
POSITION: APD VR - Oct. $90p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apd.html
Play Date: 08/16/2008
CEDC (Central European District--$65.00; -1.59; optionable): Polish alcoholic beverage importer/distributor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-4-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. CEDC formed a head and shoulders top spanning June to early August. It broke sharply lower on earnings, tumbling down to the 200 day SMA (60.62) on strong volume. It bounced at that level Tuesday, moving up to the 10 day EMA (66.45) Wednesday, but it bumped against that level through Friday and could not get through. It started to turn back over Friday. Looking for it to continue lower from here, moving down toward the 200 day. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 831.849K Avg Volume: 869.823K
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=1M Target=$61.00 Stop=$66.57
POSITION: CUV UM - Sept. $65p (-45 delta) or CUV VM - Oct. $65p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cedc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/13/2008
ASIA (Asiainfo Hldgs--$13.85; -0.15; optionable): China security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asia.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Bounced off the 50 day EMA last week, making a higher low. Friday ASIA gapped up to the Thursday high and stalled. Still in excellent position to make the breakout move for us. To recap: Coming back to test the 50 day EMA (13.00) on low, below average volume as ASIA sets up the higher low for a run at a breakout to a new 6-year high. Very nice 10 week base has formed using the 200 day SMA on the July low as support and now making this higher low, ready to follow some strong money flow higher. Very solid set up at important support. Want to see that volume jump on the break higher given there was a high volume downside session last week.
Volume: 215.198K Avg Volume: 479.269K
BUY POINT: $14.28 Volume=725K Target=$17.89 Stop=$13.44
POSITION: EUJ JV - Oct. $12.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asia.html
Play Date: 08/13/2008
ATHR (Atheros Communications--$33.81; -0.17; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/athr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving laterally Tuesday through Friday on low volume after a strong Monday move. Forming that nice handle and in great position to make the break higher. Very nice. To recap: Nice low volume test of the 10 day EMA (32.62) on the intraday low, then snapping back. Forming the handle to its 10 week base nicely set up with a pair of bottoms on the 200 day SMA down at 28.50. May come back another day or two toward the 10 day EMA and snug up and then deliver the breakout to a new all-time high. This is part of a larger 10 month pattern, and looking for a big break higher here to give us the entry point. Very nice and a solid leader in earnings growth rates.
Volume: 890.871K Avg Volume: 1.751M
BUY POINT: $34.38 Volume=2.5M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.54
POSITION: QRA LF - Dec. $30c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/athr.html
Play Date: 08/12/2008
ONNN (On Semiconductor--$10.42; -0.14; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/onnn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-6-08
STATUS: Cup. Tapping at the next break higher. Volume moved up to average Friday, so could be getting ready. Just need to see a solid break higher. To recap: This nice little 11 week base is actually the handle to a much larger 10 month cup with handle pattern. Gapped higher on its earnings report and has moved laterally and slightly upward since. May come back some to test the 10 day EMA (9.80) before resuming the move, but it is showing excellent strength and may not give much back before it turns up once more. A strong move on rising volume is what is needed to break it free from the mid-May peak that started this last phase of the base. Very solid.
Volume: 11.81M Avg Volume: 11.73M
BUY POINT: $10.51 Volume=15M Target=$12.89 Stop=$9.77
POSITION: OKU AB - Jan. $10c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/onnn.html
Play Date: 08/14/2008
STST (Sensytech--$27.02; +0.33; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stst.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-7-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher Friday but was all over the map though it closed on the session high. IN excellent shape to continue the breakout move after this test. To recap: STST is in the process of reversing a 3 year decline. It has formed a 17 month double bottom with handle base and broke out this month on earnings and then tested this week, coming back to the 10 day EMA (26.27) this week, tapping it on the Thursday low and bouncing back after gapping lower. Good test and now ready to resume the breakout move and continue its very nice recovery and run toward a new high.
Volume: 134.687K Avg Volume: 153.418K
BUY POINT: $27.21 Volume=250K Target=$32.75 Stop=$25.77
POSITION: TQC LE - Dec. $25c (67 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stst.html
Play Date: 08/11/2008
SYNA (Synaptics--$54.03; +0.83; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syna.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-31-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Bounced off the 10 day EMA (52.40) Friday on rising but still below average volume. Looks ready to make the move this week. Very nice. To recap: Excellent surge for us to start August, moving out of its 7 week cup with handle base, part of a much larger 8 month cup with handle base. Great surge, great volume, then moving in a tight lateral range on low volume. Love a stock that refuses to give up its gains and looking for SYNA to make another nice break higher and make us some more money. Love buying into leaders ready to make the next great move.
Volume: 838.158K Avg Volume: 1.062M
BUY POINT: $54.32 Volume=1.4M Target=$64.95 Stop=$51.22
POSITION: QYG LJ - Dec. $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/syna.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/07/2008
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$84.39; -2.45; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-22-08
STATUS: Put. Turned down Friday though volume remained light. Still plenty of room downside to make some money and if FCX continues lower after expiration Friday then we buy some puts on the downside. To recap: Double topped in May and June then rode the 18 day EMA (94.68) lower before falling off the table hard to start August. Bottomed just over 75 and bounced on good volume, but on Thursday as it tried to move through near resistance at the 10 day EMA (90.29) it turned and slipped back down, running out of volume. It is a bit oversold overall, but this 15 point rebound up to near resistance and the close well off the intraday high suggests FCX is going to head back down again. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 9.824M Avg Volume: 11.044M
BUY POINT: New: 84.08 (orig. $86.77) Volume=16M Target=$76.76 Stop=$89.22
POSITION: FCX UR - Sept. $90p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcx.html
Play Date: 08/07/2008
OSG (Overseas Shipholding--$70.06; -1.07; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-29-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. After a doji below the 200 day SMA (71.86) Thursday, OSG turned lower Friday though volume remained very light. If it can continue lower on Monday, however, we will move in. To recap: Set up a 12 week head and shoulders then collapsed hard to start August, tumbling on strong volume. Bounced Tuesday and Wednesday on lower trade, then rolled back over Thursday on another strong volume surge, falling back through the 200 day SMA it broke on the Wednesday bounce higher (71.85). It came back up for air, but it now nose down, tail up, heading for the ocean floor with money flow dragging it down toward Davey Jones' locker. A move to the bottom lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 366.877K Avg Volume: 764.203K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move lower (orig. $70.88) Volume=1M Target=$64.91 Stop=$71.98
POSITION: OSG UN - Sept. $70p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/osg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
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