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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 2
On Monday and Wednesday we provide the best looking plays from the report as of the end of trading.
PLAYS TO LOOK AT:
BONUS PLAYS: CMX held up well, and CD dropped a bit but held up on low volume.
OI (Owens Illinois--$15.52; +0.02; optionable): Packaging & Containers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oi.html
STATUS: Not sexy, but. OI has made a good run up along its short-term MVA's, moving with the strong sector. The run forms the right side of a large cup dating back to July 2000, a level at 14 that it just cleared on a move out of a lateral consolidation formed in February. OI is in another such consolidation, having hit up to 15.88 early this month, and since having moved laterally over the 18 day MVA (14.93). A good looking pattern that has featured light volume, and OI shows excellent relative strength and good buying. Target: 18.50
BUY POINT: 15.98 on volume of 800,000; today up to 579,300). Stop: 14.86 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $12.50 calls to buy (OI HV).
TBCC (Tbc Corp--$14.98; +0.09; optionable): Auto parts wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tbcc.html
STATUS: After failing on a breakout move to a new high in December, TBCC consolidated at its 50 day MVA and then made a move in that has taken it up strong over the last month, leaving its former high behind at 13.50. It moved as high as 16.20 when it gapped up and reversed last week, and has come back to test its 18 day MVA (14.47). It has looked good in the process, running back up from that level on strong volume last Thursday, and again dipping back to test it at its low today, but pushing back up with strong volume (148,600; average 98,400). A nice test, and we will look for a bounce and a continuation of the run. Target: 18.
BUY POINT: Over 15.25 on continued strong volume. Stop: 14.28.
POSITION: Stock only.
MARKET FAVORITES: FISV is holding on a test of the prior high and 18 day and could give us a move if the market plays along.
ZRAN (Zoran--$40.55; +0.94; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zran.html
STATUS: We looked at ZRAN recently as it was testing its breakout from a cup pattern (actually the right side of a 'flying w' double bottom going back to August). It made the initial move over the buy point but proceeded to consolidate tightly over the 10 day MVA (39.36). After several dojis, today ZRAN ran up to 41.94 (prior breakout high was 42.52), but pulled back to close; however, the interesting thing is the volume, which had been very low on the consolidation, but was massive today at 2.4 million (average 712,000). We could see the stock test the 10 day again, but are looking for a solid move up that could be excellent in a better market. Initial target 46.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Back over 41 on continued strong volume. Stop: 38.22 (7% and just below the 18 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (ZUO FG).
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS: IFIN and FITB are still interesting.
EASI ($45.18; +0.36): Forecast to announce a split 5-21-02 at earnings. EASI has now corrected and formed a cup, pulling back into a pennant-shaped handle over the last couple of weeks. Today it moved up slightly on increased volume (149,900; average 201,300), and we are looking for a breakout move with a buy point of 47 on volume of 300,000. The aggressive play is over 45.72 on volume of 250,000, with stock and/or August $40 calls to buy (UFE HH).
EXPD ($58.87; -1.02): Working on a date. EXPD is in the right shoulder of a reverse head and shoulders, pulling back again today but holding its 18 day MVA (58.69). Volume was low on the dip today (124,100; average 364,200), and we are looking for the stock to hold and make a move to 61.31 on volume of 550,000, with stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (URP HK - 10 open interest).
BMS ($52.85; -1.22): Has dropped hard off of its consolidation over the 18 day MVA (55.27), today tanking through the 50 day MVA (53.59) as volume spiked up (352,000; average 229,500). Very weak on giving up support, and although we could see a test back up, we are looking for a drop through 52.50 on continued strong volume, May $55 puts to buy (BMS QK - very low open interest).
AHC ($78.22; +0.93): Forecast to announce a split with earnings on April 24 (tentative date). AHC has formed a cup, reaching up to its August-September 2001 consolidation range. It is forming a handle now, today making a move up on increased volume (717,200; average 587,300), pulling back from its intraday high of 78.85. We will see if it can continue this surge or if it will need to visit its 10 day MVA (76.41). A test back on low volume to form a better handle would set it up nicely. 78.95 on increased volume, with August $75 calls to buy (AHC HO). Target: 90. Stop: 74.
PRE-SPLITS: Still watching NDN and ADSK.
AMAT ($51.28; -0.25): Splits 2:1 on or about 4-17-02. Not giving up much ground, again holding the 10 day MVA (51.10) today in the weak market. Volume was down at 17.9 million (average 17 million), and we will see if it can continue to hold support in the pennant, formed after the breakout from its recent range. Over 53 in a rallying Nasdaq, with stock and/or July $47.50 calls to buy (ANQ GW).
MKC ($50.49; -0.01): Rested today after its breakout move Friday. Volume was sharply down at 200,700 (average) as MKC showed a doji. It could test the 50 level, but on a strong move up we can look at a continued buy up to 51, as we target 56. Stock and/or June $45 calls to buy (MKC FI - no open interest for the May calls).
DF ($73.10; -0.22): Splits 2:1 effective 4-24-02. Holding on its pullback at the recent pattern highs and the 10 day MVA (72.93). Looking good on the hold, and we will see if it can give us a move over 74, with stock and/or June $70 calls to buy (DF FN - very low open interest for May).
CONTINUING CANDIDATES: LLL could be shaping up for a 50 day MVA bounce but we have to watch that double top that could cut it short. BBY continues to hold on near the recent new high, but it was not made with much volume. That is a caution flag.
HB ($60.45; +0.41): HB made a big bounce back up last Thursday, and is now holding up very well. It is holding the prices at the tip of its former pennant, comfortably over its 10 day MVA (59.48) before it moved back up today on increased volume (152,100; average 148,800). Looking for continued strength, with a buy point of 61.05 on volume of 200,000 or better. Stock and/or June $55 calls to buy (HB FK - under 100 open interest).
POST-SPLITS:
BSG ($33.97; +0.12): Trending nicely up the short-term MVA's, having come from 29 and through its prior high at 33. It tapped up to 35.02 and has dipped back on lighter volume, gapping below recent support of the 10 day (33.87) to open but managing to move back over to close. We could see a test of the 18 day (33.45), but on a bounce we could get a good entry point for the continued move. Over 34.30 on above average volume (505,000; up to 486,500 today), with June $32.50 calls to buy (BSG FZ).
CHS ($32.60; +0.20): CHS made a nice trend run up its short-term MVA's, and last week pulled back, with Friday's strong drop taking it back to the 50 day MVA (32.15). It dipped back to 31.50 today, but volume picked up to a massive 1.4 million (average 591,600) as the stock showed a doji. Looking for the 50 day to hold as support, and a bounce can be a great opportunity for new or additional positions. On a move over 33.50 on continued strong volume, stock and/or August $30 calls to buy. Target: Initially looking at the recent high at 37. Stop: 31.25.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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