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yahoo stock, top stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: ACAT, ISSX, SSRI (on report 3-04 in an ascending wedge that failed; tested to the 50 day MVA and blasted off from there in a strong gap up Monday
Targets hit Monday: GLG (5.25; +28%)
Stocks from the weekend report:
FAX: Moved sideways on lower volume in the newly-forming handle to its 7-month cup base.
SNIC: Tried to hold a high at 8.21 as volume kept rising after Friday's move up in the pennant, but the stock pulled back and closed in a tombstone doji. A hold for aggressive buys at 7.75 as we see if it holds here or pulls back to test the 7.22 range.
LQI: Lower volume pullback in the 7-week cup base.
DGX: Hit the buy point for the 18 day MVA bounce play on rising volume.
FRX: Were looking for a bounce from the 18 day MVA, but FRX closed just under that support with volume rising, still well below average so the stock may pull back over the broken support quickly should volume remain low. If not, there is likely good support at the 50 day MVA (80.48) in addition to thick prices since late December right in that range.
Continued Plays: We mistakenly omitted targets for IMH (11.20) and ASL (7.00). Still like CMX, GAP, NSC.
GE: Put play with current target at 36. Has been holding above 36.83 (the February low) the last 2 days on decreasing volume, but volume is still at strong, average levels. It can still make the move to 36, but that still may be all it can offer for now. Has held up well through the negative Pimco comments, and if volume keeps falling may be able to hold here. Will watch it closely for a bounce.
PDX: In a tightening ascending wedge pattern. Already hit the buy point at 40.03 for the cup with handle (remains a hold), but now has formed the wedge.
PSSI: Buy point is 10.58 in the flat base; has formed an ascending wedge since mid-February in that base, tightening up on ever-decreasing volume.
SNS: Looks ready to try its bounce from the 18 day MVA. Buy point is 14.80 for stock.
Best Plays:
1) UCI: Breaking out!
2) OLGC: Ready for a continued bounce.
3) VVUS: A tight pennant.
4) CSTR: Getting ready for another 'step' up.
New plays:
UCI (Uici--$17.24; +0.52; optionable): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uci.html
STATUS: UCI almost cleared its 7-month flat base three days ago when it made a huge gapping move (no news available to explain the action) on equally huge volume. After a Friday breather on lower volume, the stock plowed up again today, just breaking through resistance (Thursday's high and 17.05 and the August high at the start of the base, 17). Volume surged back up to 439,600; average is 92,000. We are looking for a continued breakout, and with the huge money flow, great buying and high relative strength, UCI looks ready to deliver. Target: 20.40. UCI formed the flat base after it crossed back over the 200 day MVA mid-2001.
BUY POINT: 17.30 on continued strong volume. A buy up to 18 on the breakout. Stop Advisory (7%): 16.09
POSITION: Stock and/or August $15 calls to buy (UCI HC).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/uci.html
OLGC (Orthologic--$5.30; +0.08; no options): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/olgc.html
STATUS: We looked at OLGC on the 22nd of December when the stock looked ready to make a bounce from the 18 day MVA. It did not, and fell instead to a test of the 50 day MVA from where it broke out to the January high at 5.90. That started the stock off in the current 11-week base, lows at the 4.25 range on a test of the 200 day MVA in the bottom (now back over the 50 day and short term MVAs). Monday the stock fell to the 50 day MVA (low was just under that level at 4.90) but on a strong volume surge moved back up and cleared a good bit of overhead supply (February closing high is 5.28, in part). Now looks ready to head higher on this bounce (volume was strong at 197,000; avg. 109,454). Looking at partial positions from here; the stock is likely to pull back into a handle, and a breakout will offer another entry point for additional or new buys. Super money flow with buying surging. Target: 6.75
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 5.40 on continued strong volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 5.02
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/olgc.html
Revisited:
VVUS (Vivus--$9.17; +0.02; no options): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vvus.html
STATUS: We covered VVUS' breakout from the cup with handle, and now the stock is testing the move, forming a pennant pattern (flying plateau) on steadily decreasing volume after the strong breakout. After showing 2 consecutive dojis in the tightening tail of the pennant, volume, which had been lower, suddenly shot above average to 562,600 (avg. 417,000). We are looking for this surge to blast the stock to a breakout. Huge money flow and strong buying! Target is 11.70.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 9.74 on volume of 563,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 9.06
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vvus.html
CSTR (Coinstar--$32.10; +0.37; optionable): Diversified Services: Personal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cstr.html
STATUS: CSTR is forming its third ascending wedge pattern since December; since then each pattern is another 'step' up from the previous (the second wedge was in February/early March). Volume has been falling off in the current pattern (a look at the chart will show volume falling off as well in the previous pattern from February), but was up on Monday to 208,800 (avg. 252,300). The stock showed a doji above its 10 day MVA (31.57), the low stretching down in another test of lower support, the 18 day MVA (at 31.04; CSTR tested that level last week). We are looking for another breakout; in the previous wedge, the stock tested the 50 day MVA thoroughly (it was support for the pattern), so we will be looking for a few more potential bounces from the 18 day MVA after a breakout. Huge money flow and high relative strength. Target: 40
BUY POINT: Breakout: 33.05 on volume of 341,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 30.74
POSITION: Stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (QLR GF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cstr.html
SGI (Silicon Graphics--$4.21; -0.31; no options): Computer Hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgi.html
STATUS: SGI is forming a handle now to a 14-month base (prior highs near 5.00). We have covered the stock on its bounces from the 50 day MVA ever since it crossed back over the 200 day MVA in late November. The most recent bounce from that support came in February and took the stock to its handle closing high at 4.61. Volume is falling off nicely, down Monday to 573,800 (avg. 1.6 million). Closing just under the 10 day MVA (4.25), SGI can continue lower for a test of the 18 day MVA at 4.07; there is some price support at that level from early March that can add to support. From there we will look for a move up to a breakout. Huge money flow and buying. Target: 5.85
BUY POINT: Breakout: 4.80 on volume of 2.4 million or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 4.46
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sgi.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK.
LLL ($107.49; -2.14): LLL tapped just above the target buy back point for the covered call play, the 50 day MVA (low was 106.60; moving average is at 105.98). It bounced back up on stronger volume, and if still holding the covered calls, now is a good time to buy them back. We expect the stock will continue to bounce, and may make it back through the 18 day MVA (111.127), but the recent double top is of some concern. The second March top was achieved on lower overall volume, which can be a problem and was very likely the cause of the stock's fall to the 50 day. While LLL can bounce back up, it could have trouble at the 18 day MVA or those March tops, setting it up for a downside reversal.
MIK ($38.12; +0.12): Hit the sell point for the covered call (38.40) Thursday, then showed some selling Friday. Volume fell back again on Monday with the stock showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA (37.74). Can hold here given the pattern; if it gives a bounce over today's high (38.39), we will buy back the calls. Initial target for the play is the 18 day MVA (36.69), but we will take 37.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
BBBY ($31.58; -0.43): Finally fell through the up trendline we've been discussing the last few days; volume jumped up to average levels. The stock is likely to test the 200 day MVA (30.59) unless volume falls back right away; it bounced back up from 31.25 but the trendline can pose resistance. Not ready to jettison just yet, but the 200 day MVA is close.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
WMT ($61.28; -0.77): Making the more extended pullback that was really necessary after two months of holding above the 18 day MVA. The stock on rising volume closed just under the short term up trendline and can make the drop to the 50 day MVA (60.43). We would look for it to hold there.
SEBL ($30.76; -1.91): Ouch. Selling below the 50 day MVA on rising volume, still below the average but not a good move. Can find potential support at the 200 day MVA (29.64).
HB ($60.45; +0.41): Thursday's strong move has been followed by 2 days of below average volume consolidation just above 60. Today's small gain was made on rising volume, so the stock looks ready to hold here and take on the February high (61.40).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
top stock pick
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