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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Many plays have pulled back and are set up for good moves higher or have already started them.
BONUS PLAYS: OI made the breakout move! TBCC tried but pulled back. C, CMX. BLC and CD are all holding support.
CECO (Career Education--$38.95; +0.88; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: One that we have had on the report as a pre-announcement and pre-split in the past, and now is again looking good. CECO has trended up nicely the last couple of years, and the last two months has made a couple of sharp bounces from its 50 day MVA (currently 36.19). It settled back a bit the last week after a mid-March bounce, but held the 18 day MVA (37.65) and today bounced back up on strong volume (572,800; average 380,000), making a new closing high. Looking for a move over the all-time high, targeting 45.
BUY POINT: 39.61 on increased volume. Stop: 37.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (CUY GG - 43 open interest).
CTSH (Cognizant Tech--$41.14; +0.24; no options): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
STATUS: CTSH lost a battle with former trading range highs at 45 in December, and since has formed a nice cup with handle pattern. The handle has formed over the last several sessions as volume has been nice and light (56,800 today on the doji; average 96,000), holding support over the 10 day MVA (40.35). The handle could develop a bit more, but we are looking for a continued hold of support and a breakout. Target: Watching 45 for resistance toward a target of 48.
BUY POINT: 41.67 on volume 145,000. Stop: 39.
POSITION: Stock only.
MEH (Midwest Express--$18.90; +1.01; optionable): Regional airline
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/meh.html
STATUS: Has steadily battled back since September, moving up along the short-term MVA's and challenging the left side high of its cup (21.28). It reached 19.99 before pulling back, and as it paused momentarily at the 18 day MVA (18.94) with a huge-volume doji it looked like it would bounce. However, it continued down on low volume, but after gapping below the 50 day (18) today it surged back up on a bounce, with big volume behind it (61,300; average 35,600). Looking for more strength and a move over the high. Target: Looking carefully at the high, but targeting 23.
BUY POINT: Over 19.20 on continued strong volume. Stop: 17.95 (7%).
POSITION: Stock only.
Quick updates prior bonus plays:
BAX - Another new high!
JDEC - Testing the move
MDR - Also testing but needs to put on the brakes
MER - Could bounce
PTV, IR, CSC, UVN - All holding the 50 day
OO - Nice test
FNM - Put. Trying to hold onto the 50 day, but not showing strength
CSL - Looking good
LECO - Put. Dropping back as expected
EAT - Put. Still looks ready to drop some more
DD - Strong 50 day bounce
CUM -Held the 18 day again, but still will sell if it gives it up to close
APA - Testing the 18 day as it trends up toward the target
MARKET FAVORITES: Nice move by ZRAN! MCHP is trying to hold on, as is KLAC.
1) MANU - Ready to move
MANU (Manugistics--$18.23; +0.63; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/manu.html
STATUS: After its strong surge back up to start the month, breaking its downtrend, MANU has recently pulled back again, finding support at the 50 day MVA (17.33). Today volume surged (6.74 million; average 3.49 million) as MANU reached up intraday to 19.12 before pulling back to close, but after hours was looking good after announcing a strong increase in sales. Looking for MANU to start up from support and attack the recent high at 22.75, but with some help in the market it can take that out. Target: 25.
BUY POINT: Could see a gap up in the morning, and a favorite time to take positions is on a pullback to test the open. On a move over 19 with continued strong volume. Stop: 17.76 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $17.50 calls to buy (ZUG GM).
Updates on recent Market Favorites:
BOBJ - Still testing recent highs
MERQ - Still hanging around the 50 day with tightening pattern and low volume
MSFT - Put. Big volume doji so we will watch for a bounce
PRGS - Holding in the handle
FLEX - Put. Still holding over the short-term MVA's
NTAP - Struggling to hold the 50 day now
LRCX - Held the 18 day with strong volume
BRKS - We will see it can recover off of the high volume doji
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: No announcements forecast for this week.
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS: Lots of plays looking good and just waiting to make moves, like EASI, AHC, STI, KRB, EXPD, BER and MUR.
1) IFIN - Looking for the move
2) FITB - High volume doji over support
3) PDCO - Breakout!
4) MGA - Shakeout could be over
5) BMS - Still a possible put
6) RUS - Trying to muster the strength
IFIN (Investor's Financial Service--$76.08; +0.40; optionable): Looking at an announcement on 4-16 with earnings or with the 4-23 shareholder meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ifin.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-15-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $82. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-17-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: IFIN has been in a nice consolidation, and the has steadily and slowly drifted back to test the former highs in its double bottom, which are with the 18 day MVA (74.88). today it pushed back up slightly from the 18 day, with volume increasing to 194,200 (average 195,500). It pulled back from 77 to close, but IFIN looks ready and we are watching for a move. Target: 87.
BUY POINT: 77.61 on volume of 240,000. Stop: 72.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $70 calls to buy (FLQ GN - low open interest).
FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$67.42; -0.02; optionable): Regional bank. Forecast to announce a split on 4-16-02 before the market in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 6-20-00 at a stock price of $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-19-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FITB made a nice run from 61 in recent weeks, and after having some trouble with 68 the stock broke through that level last week. However, after reaching 69.69 it dropped back, and although it failed to hold the 68 level, it is looking strong at the 18 day MVA (67.19), today showing a 'shooting star' doji as volume picked up to 2.15 million (average 1.57 million). Looks poised for a good bounce. Targeting 76.
BUY POINT: Over 68.15 on continued strong volume. Stop: 64.25
POSITION: Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (FTQ HM).
PDCO (Patterson Dent--$42.49; +1.53; optionable): Medical equipment wholesale. Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
BACKGROUND: Announced a 2:1 split on 6-14-00 at a price of $53, and announced a 3:2 split on 1-12-98 at $45.
STATUS: PDCO has moved in a flat base since the beginning of the year, using the 50 day MVA (40.22) as support. The stock has been snuggled up to the 50 day in recent weeks, and started a move up in recent sessions but it did not stir much interest as it was on weak volume and encountered trouble at some consolidation highs around 41.50. Today it picked up steam and broke out, moving over the December high (41.05) on increased volume (241,300; average 229,600), pulling back from an intraday high of 42.85. Looking for more, but would like to see more volume behind it. Target: 48.
BUY POINT: Could see a test of 42. From here, still a buy up to 44 on volume of 300,000 or better. Stop: 39.75-40.92. On a test that holds 42, a move back over 42.50 on volume of 300,000. Stop: 39.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (DOU GH - low open interest).
MGA (Magna--$71.40; -0.05; optionable): Auto Parts. Forecast to announce a split 5-2-02 with earnings or on 5-9-02 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting (time to be determined this week).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mga.html
STATUS: MGA finally made a move out of its tight consolidation of dojis, but it was in the wrong direction. However, the dip was on low volume, and after hitting 70.50 at its low today, MGA recovered a bit on increased volume (342,300; average 297,000). Not bad, as the fall from the tightening pennant could be the 'shakeout' that can often precede a strong move back up and breakout. On a breakout, targeting: 83. Good relative strength.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 73.50 on increased volume. Stop: 70. Breakout: 74.18 on volume of 390,000. Stop: 70.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $70 calls to buy (MGA HN).
BMS (Bemis--$53.40; +0.55; optionable): Packaging & containers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bms.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that BMS has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-3-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After dropping hard the last several sessions and taking out its 50 day MVA (53.59) Monday, BMS rebounded a bit on very strong, increased volume (406,600; average 230,500). It could not make it back to the 50 day, closing just under that support-turned-resistance. This is the test we were anticipating and if the test fails, and on a drop back we can look at the put play. Target 48.
BUY POINT: A drop through 52.50 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: July $60 puts to buy (BMS SL).
RUS (Russ Berrie--$32.45; +0.47; no options): Toys and games. Looking at a date in mid-April, and we are working to narrow that down.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rus.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in 1993 at a stock price of $35. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After the breakout from its lateral consolidation, RUS could not continue the move with gusto, but neither has it given the move back. It has held strong at the former highs and 10 day MVA (32.02), today moving back up on increased volume of 20,700 (average 22,400). We want a lot more volume, but it looks ready to break to a new high. Target: 35.50
BUY POINT: 32.65 on volume of 30,000. Stop: 31.
POSITION: Stock only.
PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: TOL is still solid.
Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) JEC - Nice move!
2) NDN - Forming a good pattern
3) ADSK - Looking to bounce back
4) AMAT - Holding up well
5) DHI - Good bounce
6) WTNY - To a new high
7) DF - Set up to bounce again
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$72.40; +2.78; optionable): Splits 2:1 on April 2.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
STATUS: JEC dipped back to its 18 day MVA (69.95) Monday, but it held on for a solid bounce back up today. JEC has formed an erratic handle to a cup going back to November (high 75.70), and closed today near the handle high at 73. Going into the split we are looking for this move to take out the handle high and make a nice run at the high. On the move we are watching the November high; JEC also hit that level in May-June before retreating, so that will be a key level of resistance.
PLAY: 73.10, with stock and/or July $70 calls to buy (JEC GN). Stop: 68.
NDN ($37.32; +0.51; optionable): Splits 4:3 effective 4-4-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: NDN looks like it is moving into a handle to its double bottom. The pattern has formed after NDN retreated from 38 in mid-February, and after tapping over that level Friday, NDN has settled back on much lower volume (today down to 109,700; average 301,500). That is good action in the pattern, and we will continue to look for NDN to set up and make a breakout as we get close to the split. Target on that move: 41.
PLAY: After holding here, 38.21 with stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (NDN FG - no open interest on the May calls). Stop: 36.
ADSK (Autodesk--$45.42; -0.05; optionable): Software. Splits 2:1 effective 4-19-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adsk.html
STATUS: ADSK is making its way up along the 10 day MVA (45.55), easing back up toward the early March high (47.37; made on a strong rebound from 38). ADSK had formed a pennant, but could not make its way out last week, and has again visited the 10 day, but showed a 'hammer' doji at that level today as volume shot up to 813,100 (average 785,300). Looking for a bounce up from here. Target: 53.
PLAY: Over 47.37 on volume of 1 million, with stock and/or July $45 calls to buy (ADQ GI). Stop: 44.05. Aggressive: Over 46, with stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (ADQ GH).
AMAT (Applied Materials--$52.35; +1.07; optionable): Splits 2:1 on or about 4-17-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amat.html
STATUS: Holding up well after AMAT's surprise stock split announcement last week, maintaining support in the weak Nasdaq. Today AMAT tapped recent support at the 18 day MVA (50.41), bouncing up from there to close. Still in a pennant pattern formed since the breakout from its recent range, and if it can continue to hold up we will look for strength with a better market. Strong money flow; target is 58.50.
PLAY: Over 53 in a rallying Nasdaq, with stock and/or July $47.50 calls to buy (ANQ GW). Stop (7%): 49.38
DHI (D.R.Horton--$39.76; +2.36; optionable): Splits 3:2 effective 4-10-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhi.html
STATUS: Caught support at the 50 day MVA (37.47) and is trying to bounce. Friday's move turned back around to visit the 50 day, but today DHI took advantage of strength in homebuilders and moved over its short-term MVA's (18 day at 39.47). A solid move and we will look for more with an aggressive pre-split play. Target: 45, watching the high at 43.75.
PLAY: 40.15, with stock and/or May $35 calls to buy (DHI EG). Stop: 37.50.
WTNY (Whitney Holding--$50.79; +1.16; no options): Splits 3:2 effective 4-10-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wtny.html
STATUS: WTNY has been making steady progress with a couple of stair-step moves, running and then consolidating laterally. WTNY recently pulled laterally and intersected its 10 day MVA (49.73), and today again blasted up from that level on great volume (45,700; average 28,100). A new high, and we are targeting 55.
PLAY: Over 51, with stock. With the close target, looking not to chase it and be ready to take some profits on the run.
DF (Dean Foods--$73.72; +0.62; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective 4-24-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/df.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout of its cup with handle, holding on its pullback at the recent pattern highs and the 10 day MVA (73.08). Today it made a little bounce, taking out the buy point but pulling back from its high of 74.39. Still looking good, and we are targeting 80.
PLAY: Can still look at new or additional positions on a strong move over 74.40, with stock and/or June $70 calls to buy (DF FN).
CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS: TGIC could be trying something, and we are still looking at ETH downside, and PII is holding support.
1) BBY - Nice consolidation
2) HB - Moving
3) DIAN - Strong move
4) JCI - Good bounce at 50 day MVA on strong volume
BBY (Best Buy--$78.86; +1.30; optionable): Electronics retailer.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Recently broke over its December-February range, and although volume was rather low on that series of moves, BBY is holding up nicely in a consolidation over the former highs and the 10 day MVA (77.82). BBY was settling nicely over that support, and today pushed back up from there on higher, but still below average volume (2.7 million; average 2.85 million). Still holding the existing positions, and looking for new ones on a breakout. Target: 90.
BUY POINT: 80.72 on volume of 3.85 million. Stop: 75.07 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or June $75 calls to buy (BBY FO).
HB (Hillenbrand--$61.05; +0.60; optionable): Personal services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hb.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that HB has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: HB made a big bounce back up last Thursday, and after a lower volume break that saw it test the prices at the tip of its former pennant (short of its 10 day MVA, at 59.76), HB has moved back up the last two sessions on increasing volume. Today it moved back over last week's high as volume climbed to 180,000 (average 149,000). Not quite the volume we were looking for, but will see how it handles the high (from February in the pennant) at 61.75. Target: 68.
BUY POINT: 61.85 on volume of 200,000 or better. Stop: 58.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $55 calls to buy (HB FK - under 100 open interest).
DIAN (Dianon Systems--$64.00; +1.66; optionable): Medical labs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dian.html
STATUS: DIAN fell back from a breakout of a small cup with handle in February, but after dipping back through its 50 day MVA (59.48) and testing the highs in its former trading range (July-November), DIAN has bounced. The moves the previous two sessions were not that impressive, but today DIAN broke over the December high and early March consolidation range, and got an infusion of volume in the process (428,000; average 249,400). A solid move, and an aggressive momentum play up toward the high of 68.01. Target on a new high: 75.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: Over 65 on continued strong volume. Stop: 61.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (UID HL).
JCI (Johnson Controls--$87.55; +2.89; optionable): Auto parts.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
STATUS: After a breakout from a reverse head & shoulders took JCI on a nice ride up to a new high at 92.94, JCI has spent the last few weeks steadily pulling back. The stock gave up its 50 day MVA (85.93) Tuesday, but volume, like on the recent selling back, was below average. Today we saw a rebound, and volume kicked in at a heavy 693,800 (average 418,700). The move took JCI back up to the level of its short-term MVA's (18 day at 87.98), so we will see if it can continue up over that resistance. Targeting 96 (could get a run to 100), watching the former high as resistance.
BUY POINT: Over 88.10 on continued strong volume. Stop: 84.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $85 calls to buy (JCI GQ).
POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) MGAM - Looking good on a pullback to support
2) CHBS - Nice bounce back up
MGAM (Multimedia Games--$34.20; +0.10; optionable): Split 3:2 on February 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgam.html
STATUS: MGAM has made a nice run up on its short-term MVA's, pulling back the past week on light volume to test its recent highs and the 18 day MVA (at 32.92). Today it gapped back but pushed up slightly to close, moving on continued light volume of 208,200 (average 256,000). A nice test back, and we are looking for a strong bounce back up to give us another entry point as it continues its trend. Target: 40.
PLAY: Over 35 on volume of 300,000 or better, with stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (QMG GF - low open interest). Stop: 32.75.
CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$31.85; +1.14; optionable): Split 3:2 on 12-13-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
STATUS: Broke out of a cup with handle in December but after a steady downtrend of two months has moved back over its 50 day MVA (29.94) and has pulled into a handle type consolidation. It dipped back on low volume to test its 18 day MVA (30.56), but powered back up today with a nice bounce, as volume checked in much higher at 537,200 (average 487,400). CHBS closed just under the recent highs in the handle, and we are looking for a strong move over those levels. Target: 38.
PLAY: 32.25 on volume of 650,000, with stock and/or June $26.63 calls to buy (ULF FW). Stop: 30.
End Part 2 of 3
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