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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 09/09/2008
CNMD (Conmed--$31.58; -0.62; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnmd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CNMD has put together this short 4 week pattern at the end of a long15 month cup base, pausing at the June 2007 high to set up the current pattern ahead of the breakout. This is part of a much larger 3 year ascending triangle that has set the stage for a nice run on a breakout move. Very solid price/volume action the past 2 months showing accumulation ready to launch CNMD. Now we just wait for the launch to take place.
Volume: 212.932K Avg Volume: 242.246K
BUY POINT: $32.38 Volume=365K Target=$37.32 Stop=$30.97
POSITION: KQD KF - Nov. $30c (64 delta, 134 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cnmd.html
Play Date: 09/09/2008
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$44.24; +1.01; optionable): Technical/system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-30-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. An 'IBD 100' stock, and it definitely has the growth credentials to back that rating. CNQR shot out of a 7 month base in late July, gapping higher on earnings. It immediately tested that move, almost filling the entire gap intraday a few sessions later before snapping back up. Rallied to 47 and then tested back to end August and into this month. Friday it reached lower below the 50 day EMA (41.16) but reversed to close positive. It continued higher and Tuesday gapped modestly lower but then reversed to post a gain on very strong volume. Great base, great breakout, great test, and now back in gear to the upside. Strong money flow is leading the way higher and CNQR is falling in behind it.
Volume: 1.233M Avg Volume: 960.708K
BUY POINT: $44.77 Volume=1.2M Target=$53.95 Stop=$41.97
POSITION: JCQ KI - Nov. $45c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cnqr.html
Play Date: 09/09/2008
LPNT (Lifepoint Hospitals--$34.00; -0.02; optionable): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lpnt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-8-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Another strong stock that broke out big on its earnings, clearing an 11 week cup base that was part of a larger base on base pattern where two bases follow one after the other. Big surge and then in the last half of August selling back to near support at the 18 day EMA (33.83). It held and then worked laterally, tightening the range this month over that near support, setting the stage for a new break higher to continue the breakout move. Strong volume Monday (duh). Nice tight range and looking for a break higher on volume to show us it is time to buy.
Volume: 795.203K Avg Volume: 1.073M
BUY POINT: $34.82 Volume=1.6M Target=$41.65 Stop=$33.48
POSITION: PUN AG - Jan. $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lpnt.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/09/2008
CEDC (Central European District--$54.01; +0.69; optionable): Beverage distribution in Poland
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 8-4-08
STATUS: Put. After tumbling lower to end August and begin September, CEDC bounced the past three sessions to near resistance at the 10 day EMA (55.73), tapping that on the Tuesday high and fading back. Money flow continues lower ahead of price. Looking for CEDC to turn back down after this modest rebound and stumble after the money flow down into the gutter. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 1.25M Avg Volume: 952.217K
BUY POINT: $53.77 Volume=1.2M Target=$49.75 Stop=$55.48
POSITION: CUV VK - Oct. $55p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cedc.html
Play Date: 09/09/2008
TWM (ProShares Russell 2000 Ultrashort ETF--$71.37; +4.68; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/twm.html
STATUS: Trend reversal. As the small caps struggle, breaking below and closing below the 50 day SMA for the first time since clearing it in early August, TWM is ready to give us a good downside play. Well, it is an upside play on an ETF that rises as the Russell 2000 sells. Of course it is the one holdout to the upside; if it goes it will go fast as the dam breaks. A move to our initial target lands a 50%ish gain on the option position.
Volume: 8.753M Avg Volume: 7.733M
BUY POINT: $71.11 Volume=8M Target=$76.00 Stop=$69.45
POSITION: TWM JR - Oct. $70c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/twm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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