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A weekend report is on a wait and see basis given IKE coming to call. For now we offer these thoughts on Friday and what to look for Monday. A low volume day with little relative change in the indices. NASD +3.05, 0.14%; DJ30 -11.72, -0.10%; SP500 +2.65, 0.21%; SP600+0.17%; SP600 +0.17%. A/D +1.2:1 NYSE, -1.2:1 NASD. Volume was significantly lower. Thus even though we saw some positive action in some recent leaders such as homebuilders, medical/healthcare, the lack of change in the indices and the blase trade kept us from moving into any new positions. Retail struggled after the retail sales figures. A big issue were the financials once more even though there were some good moves from leaders such as WFC. Preliminary Michigan sentiment showed a sharp jump (73.1 vs 64 exp, 63.0 prior) & helped the indices recovery from early downside. The indices stalled twice, however, at near resistance, thus not changing their positions heading into the weekend other than avoiding a full test of the July lows on NYSE, NASD. Oil rose modestly to 101.18, +0.31. Gold rose as well (764.50, +19) as commodities rebounded a bit more but it was tough to move in given the light volume and the failure to take out near resistance after bumping up against it. Kind of a retrenching to end the week and we saw no reason to get in too much of a hurry to move into new positions particularly with the rumor going around that something was up this weekend with either a Fed rate cut (bad) or another bailout (good short term, bad longer term). Hey, since everyone is in the giveaway move, why not a '2-fer'? Bond yields flat (2.2% 2 yr, 3.72% 10 yr). We are in a whirlwind of activity tonight getting everything ready for Ike so we are just going to have to see how it goes with reports this weekend. As it stands we are still looking at the likes of CELG, HCBK, TOL, JAS for new buys upside and a rebound in retailers to give us an opportunity to buy some more (ARO, JNY, URBN). Looking at SP500, some new SDS may be in order to the downside. While the large caps look top heavy just a bit, SP600 small caps tested on the week, held nicely, and is in great position to move higher. Wish us luck and good wishes tonight and tomorrow as we take on IKE. Will definitely try to get the continuing play tables out tonight.vUpside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABI 09/03 Test BO 35.84 -0.12 36.38 42.95 610K 3M 35.48
Buy Not Issued. Resting at the 50 day EMA some more as its testing low on light volume and can't give us the buy until trade picks up and takes it higher from this pullback from mid August.
AMTD 09/06 Asc Tri 20.39 -0.13 21.35 24.95 3.3M 4.1M 19.86
Current. Hit resistance from the 10 day EMA hard Friday to close with a short step lower. On below average volume and needs to break the moving average soon.
ARO 08/09 Cup 34.87 -0.59 36.11 42.95 3.5M 4M 34.55
Current. Stuck under the 18 day EMA as resistance after a gap lower here at the end of the week. On rising above average volume now and looking to continue a bit lower towards 34 at support from the 50 day EMA before resuming higher in its Cup hdl base.
BBY 09/08 Rev HS 44.49 -1.51 47.38 53.95 10M 9.5M 44.64
Buy Not Hit. Doji step lower to the 200 day SMA. Riding the key moving average here and has to hold the line next week.
BIG 09/10 Asc Bse 32.39 -0.81 33.32 39.95 1.9M 4.6M 31.11
Buy Not Issued. Short step lower for BIG with a doji to the 10 day EMA. On fading below average volume and in decent shape here at support after this weeks quick pullback, just needs to resume higher soon once trade picks up and we're in.
BRKR 09/08 Test BO 15.27 -0.72 16.98 20.42 882K 750K 15.85
Buy Not Hit. Not great but not bad for the Friday as BRKR sold through the session past the 18 day EMA as support with ease. On above average trade here as it continues its test from the early September high and needs to find support near 14.5 at the 50 day EMA and late August low.
BRKR 08/27 DB hdl 15.27 -0.72 15.74 18.95 882K 825K 15.88
Current.
CELG 09/11 Test 20 71.15 +0.48 70.91 80.95 4.4M 5.5M 67.94
Buy Not Issued. Short step higher off the 50 day EMA for CELG Friday. On average volume here and nearing resistance from the 50 day EMA so will need stronger trade to push through it and give us the buy.
CNMD 09/09 PreAnn 31.70 -0.58 32.38 37.32 169K 365K 30.97
Buy Not Issued. CNMD selling a bit through Friday back to the 18 day EMA on low volume. Resting here at support some more through September until stronger trade can take it uphill again. Watching for the buy at that point.
CNQR 09/09 Test 50 45.96 +0.95 45.00 53.95 1.2M 1.2M 43.77
Current. Modest upside movement again Friday. Decent trade as well just above the average line and CNQR slowly but surely continuing a nice recovery move through September from its late August testing low at the 50 day EMA just under 42.
DGX 08/20 Test 18 54.57 -0.20 54.88 63.32 571K 1.8M 53.45
Buy Not Issued. Held price support from 54 at the August consolidated lows as well and DGX just continuing to consolidate into early September here for now. Not much volume and as long as it continues to hold the line here near the mid 50s as it has done since early August it is still in pretty solid shape.
FAST 08/26 Rev HS 53.57 -0.42 52.46 60.45 18M 2.8M 51.54
Current. Doji step lower in some light selling Friday. High volume in the session with FAST just making a quick test of its September peak before pushing uphill again in the Rev HS base.
GPRO 08/12 DB hdl 57.28 -0.09 58.49 69.95 194K 832K 55.78
Buy Not Hit. Holds the 50 day EMA as support after a move laterally Friday on low trade. Resting here at its testing low from the late August pullback and needs to continue to hold the line here.
HCBK 09/11 Cup hdl 19.21 +0.22 19.22 21.45 11M 14M 17.91
Buy Not Issued. Solid move higher again Friday on above average volume. It is ready this coming week. Didn't see much reason to get into new positions ahead of the weekend with the so-so patterns in the larger indices though, and will jump in next week as it continues higher.
HLEX 08/18 FlyPlat 31.77 -1.58 33.63 40.95 506K 500K 32.48
Current. Solid move higher again Friday on above average volume. It is ready this coming week. Didn't see much reason to get into new positions ahead of the weekend with the so-so patterns in the larger indices though, and will jump in next week as it continues higher.
HLF 08/25 Cup hdl 42.67 -0.90 46.11 54.95 827K 1.4M 43.77
Buy Not Issued. Dropped this one Friday as it pushed lower again past the 50 day SMA where it needed to hold as its key support in the doji gap lower from Thursday.
JAS 09/04 Asc Bse 25.62 -0.76 26.31 31.45 452K 1M 24.11
Buy Not Issued. Modest selling for JAS Friday on average trade back to the 10 day EMA. Quick test here into the close of the week off its September high in the Asc bse and if it can resume higher soon on some stronger volume we're in.
JNJ 08/04 Asc Tri 70.59 -0.57 69.60 78.00 15M 17M 70.29
Current. Stuck under resistance from the 10 day EMA here on above average volume Friday. Needs to push past the light resistance here next week or is in serious trouble.
JNY 08/21 Trnd Rv 19.68 -0.67 19.53 23.44 2.9M 2.5M 20.18
Current. Light selling through Friday again as JNY continues to test its Tuesday high and is now at support from the early September low and late August high. Retailers struggled some after the retail sales results but looking for them to rebound again next week.
MT 09/11 Trnd Rv 65.46 +2.06 63.76 74.85 4.9M 3.2M 59.77
Buy Not Issued. Jumped higher as expected, but continually found resistance at the 10 day EMA throughout the session and given the mediocre market action decided not to enter, see if it fades some to start next week and starts the move anew.
MTH 09/10 Test BO 26.07 -1.07 26.95 31.85 890K 1.5M 25.06
Current. Doji gap lower in some light losses Friday on a pullback in trade to below the average line. Not too concerned given the drop in volume after four straight sessions of great volume and MTH just making a quick pullback late this week before resuming higher in its Asc bse.
NNI 09/10 DB hdl 15.85 -0.01 16.11 19.45 341K 400K 14.98
Buy Not Hit. Doji step laterally along the Thursday high as it takes a breather here. On just above average volume and has a nice DB hdl base, just needs to push past the early September high at 16ish to give us the buy.
PETS 08/04 Test BO 15.86 +0.11 15.12 18.22 227K 450K 15.12
Current. Looks great to move higher once more after another tap at support from the 10 day EMA before bouncing to post a short step higher. On fading below average volume and set to head uphill once volume picks up.
PG 09/04 DB hdl 73.15 +0.07 72.30 80.95 11M 16M 71.42
Current. Sold back to 72ish intraday to test the 10 day EMA before bouncing off the moving average as support to close with a short step uphill. On below average volume and looking to continue steadily higher into next week in its DB hdl base along its trend line at the 10 day EMA.
PRXL 08/25 Test BO 31.63 -0.08 31.11 38.95 812K 750K 29.42
Buy Not Issued. Doji step laterally along the 18 day EMA for PRXL after the Thursday surge higher. On just above average trade and resting here for now. Will see if it can resume solid move uphill from Thursday soon once trade picks up to give us the buy.
RL 08/14 Test BO 73.28 -1.11 75.03 84.95 2.2M 2.2M 73.57
Current. Doji step lower to close just under the 18 day EMA as support. On just above average volume here and resting at the late August and September lows for now so needs to hold the line.
RMD 09/02 DB hdl 47.98 +0.99 47.02 54.95 805K 1.2M 45.91
Current. RMD in great shape Friday on average volume as it surged off the 10 day EMA for some solid gains in its DB hdl base that looks to take it even higher next week.
SGEN 09/06 Test 50 12.16 +0.12 11.67 13.88 251K 700K 11.32
Current. Sold back to the 18 day EMA on fading below average volume before bouncing off the moving average very nicely to close with a short step higher. Continuing a solid recovery move off the 50 day EMA from early September so SGEN still in good shape at the close of the week.
STST 08/14 Test BO 24.53 -0.43 25.78 32.75 65K 250K 24.31
Buy Not Issued. Sold through Friday back to the 90 day SMA as it continues to sell from the early August peak so needs to hold here at key support.
SUNH 08/26 Cup hdl 17.78 +0.06 17.89 21.48 453K 550K 16.64
Buy Not Issued. Holds at the 10 day EMA as support. On just above average volume and stuck here at resistance from the prior September high and early August peak as well so needs to push through.
TOL 09/11 Cup hdl 25.43 +0.39 25.72 30.85 5.3M 6M 23.92
Buy Not Issued. Nice move higher through Friday off the 10 day EMA on just above average volume. Solid Cup hdl base taking it higher again here and if trade can pick up and TOL can continue the upside movement we're in.
TSCO 08/26 DB hdl 43.64 -0.94 44.10 51.45 572K 1.3M 42.64
Current. Short step lower on fading below average volume. Resting here at the 18 day EMA as support in this easy pullback through September so far and in good shape to just hang out here for now until stronger trade can take it higher again in the DB hdl base.
TSO 09/08 Trnd Rv 19.06 +1.08 19.68 23.95 20M 9.6M 18.31
Buy Not Hit. Gapped higher and climbed off the 50 day EMA for some solid gains. Its next big mark to clear and give us the buy is at the 90 day SMA at 20.0ish so watching it closely as it heads higher. On high trade though and looking good to break through.
TWM 09/09 Trnd Rv 68.37 -0.92 71.11 76.00 6.9M 8M 69.45
Buy Not Issued. Sold through Friday back below the 18 day EMA on just below average volume. Will watch this one closely to see it hit the brakes soon after breaking key support from the 18 day EMA and 50 day EMA Friday.
URBN 09/04 Test BO 36.49 -0.12 36.49 42.75 2.8M 3.9M 35.36
Current. Doji step laterally along the 10 day EMA for URBN Friday. On just below average volume and just continuing some solid upside movement through September so far along its key 10 and 18 day EMAs as its trend line.
URBN 08/05 Dbl btm 36.49 -0.12 34.42 39.95 2.8M 5.7M 35.88
Current.
UTHR 08/09 Test BO 113.32 +0.07 112.07 124.95 3.1M 800K 108.55
Current. Consolidating some more along this September high. On high trade here as well and just watching it here to see if it comes back to test a bit from this nice recovery move started back in late August.
VVUS 09/03 Rev HS 8.24 -0.01 9.18 11.00 297K 1M 8.54
Buy Not Hit. Moved laterally along the 50 day EMA after the quick pullback to the moving average as support through this week. Now resting here as its testing low and if it can really get a solid recovery move going from here once some stronger trade returns it will be in good shape for the buy.
WFC 09/06 Rev HS 34.29 +0.44 33.44 37.95 64M 55M 32.14
Current. Short step higher on just above average volume. Nice Rev HS base looking to take it uphill some more into next week.
WHR 09/11 Rev HS 87.56 -0.44 88.54 99.95 1.3M 2.2M 83.77
Buy Not Issued. Ready for a rise this week after a hanging man doji Friday at the Thursday high. On light trade and watching for a move higher off this doji on some stronger volume to give us the buy.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BRCD 09/04 Put 7.49 -0.09 6.77 5.85 4.4M 9M 7.12
Current. Doji step laterally along the 200 day SMA for BRCD Friday on fading below average volume. Holds at resistance from the August peaks for now and given the fading trade levels BRCD looks good to head lower again soon out of this test through early September.
CEDC 09/09 Put 55.40 -0.10 53.77 49.75 744K 1.2M 55.48
Buy Not Issued. Moved laterally along resistance from the 10 day EMA on average trade Friday. Stalling here some more and looking good to turn lower soon as it lacks the strength to even make it past the 10 day EMA. Ready to jump in soon once it shows some solid downsides.
DXD 09/08 Put 61.26 -0.34 62.48 66.44 7.7M 9M 61.91
Current. DXD with a bit of selling Friday as it just cleared the 50 day EMA. On average trade here as the DOW30 pushes a big higher late this week so will keep an eye on it as it approaches key support from the 90 day SMA at 60.0.
EEV 08/30 Test 18 109.57 -7.18 95.44 99.85 1.4M 950K 113.77
Current. Emerging Markets pushing higher with some pace Friday so EEV sold back to the 10 day EMA as support on this above average trade. Will see how it does here next week as it starts to test this early September high.
GDI 09/10 Put 41.34 +0.24 40.83 37.00 541K 900K 41.91
Buy Not Issued. What a set up for a downside move. GDI slowly losing upside momentum as it approaches resistance from the 18 day EMA and 200 day SMA at 42.0. Doji step higher to the 10 day EMA Friday and held resistance very well so looking to jump in soon once it turns lower on stronger trade.
QID 09/02 Trnd Rv 47.09 +0.17 44.28 47.92 46M 50M 46.91
Current. Bounced a bit for some light gains Friday. QQQQ really just resting here at the close of the week and will see how things go next week for QID at support here from the 10 day EMA.
SDS 09/08 Trnd Rv 67.41 -0.62 67.98 72.24 24M 30M 68.54
Current. Sold some more through Friday after moving lower as SP500 posted some solid upside movement through the Thursday session. Now holding the 18 day EMA and late August highs as support and will see how it does here next week.
SDS 08/25 Trnd Rv 67.41 -0.62 67.29 72.00 24M 25M 69.21
Current.
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