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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Looking upside after the big dive makes it harder to short here and there are still many early cycle stocks looking great. Their ability to hold up as the market sells is quite impressive.
Play Date: 09/15/2008
AGN (Allergan--$58.54; -1.20; optionable): Drugs and drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-30-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Surged higher last Thursday on huge volume then tested Friday and Monday on much lower trade, holding the 200 day SMA (58.32) on the low. Nice strong breakout from a 7.5 month double bottom with handle base, reversing the trend with that move. Nice base after a strong 1.5 year rally. Ready to pick it up after AGN completes this test.
Volume: 2.972M Avg Volume: 2.487M
BUY POINT: $59.88 Volume=3.5M Target=$68.95 Stop=$57.96
POSITION: AGN AL - Jan. $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agn.html
Play Date: 09/15/2008
FDO (Family Dollar Stores--$26.98; -0.29; optionable): Discount retail stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdo.html
EARNINGS: 10-3-08 before the open
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out just over a week back from a 13 month cup with handle pattern. Strong volume on the move shows the buyers were there. Nice lower volume test the past week, tapping at the 18 day EMA (26.05) on the Monday low, then rebounding to hold the 10 day EMA on the close. Excellent position to make the continued breakout move. very solid.
Volume: 3.372M Avg Volume: 4.073M
BUY POINT: $27.55 Volume=6M Target=$34.35 Stop=$25.91
POSITION: FDO AE - Jan. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fdo.html
Play Date: 09/16/2008
IP (International Paper--$29.89; -0.70; optionable): Paper products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ip.html
EARNINGS: Late October
STATUS: Trend reversal. After peaking in July 2007 IP sold off below the 90 day SMA (now at 26). Broke higher in early August, rallying to the 200 day SMA (28.58) then moving laterally below that key level, testing the 50 day EMA (27.36) to start August. Nice test and then started moving up the past week on strong trade. Tested back Monday & may come on back to the 10 day EMA (29.22) before it is ready to continue the move. Strong break over the 200 day and looks ready to continue the run higher.
Volume: 8.289M Avg Volume: 5.78M
BUY POINT: $30.22 Volume=8.5M Target=$35.95 Stop=$28.45
POSITION: IP AF - Jan. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ip.html
Play Date: 09/16/2008
MCD (McDonalds--$63.72; -0.34; optionable): Burgers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcd.html
EARNINGS: 10-22-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Looking at MCD again as it holds over the 10 day EMA (63.08) after an impressive recovery off of the early August selling. This follows the early August breakout from an 8 month ascending triangle on strong volume. MCD continues producing strong sales growth, and after this lateral move looking to move into the stock as MCD breaks higher once aain.
Volume: 11.333M Avg Volume: 9.156M
BUY POINT: $65.08 Volume=13M Target=$72.95 Stop=$62.55
POSITION: MCD LM - Dec. $65c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mcd.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Good Investing!
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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