|
|
yahoo stock, top stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1826.75.
Resistance: 1850. Then 1875, the bottom of the November consolidation that stopped the prior attempt. The simple 50 day MVA (1856.83) and then the 200 day MVA (1882.79) is what stopped the recent rally attempt. The top of the November consolidation at 1934 to 1941. After that is 1980 (the December gap up point) and some minor resistance at 2000. Then the January top at 2098.88.
Support: 1800 was waved at once again Wednesday (second straight session), and it represents some support. Clearer support is 1775, the October high. Then the early November gap up at 1768 and 1745, where it launched from on that gap.
S&P 500: Closed at 1144.58.
Resistance: Cleared the 200 day MVA (1142.20) today, but it was not a clean break. After that is 1150 (represents prior tops and bottoms). The December high (1173.62) and the January high (1176.97) will be the real key. That point also marks roughly the lows of summer 2001 consolidation that runs up to 1240. Before that point there is some resistance at 1183 from March 2000.
Support: Maybe the 200 day MVA (1142.20), but it is still right in that range. The simple 50 day MVA (1127.44) and then 1125 (former price consolidations and the 'hump' in the brief November double bottom). 1100 has acted as support as well.
Dow: Closed at 10,426.91
Resistance: 10,400 was taken out today on the close, but it has not really cleared this level. The top of the June, July, and August 2001 trading range at 10,600 (10,679 intraday high), is still holding it back. 10,800 represents some resistance. That is followed by resistance at 11,000 on its way to the May 2001 high at 11,345.72.
Support: 10,400 is possible, but it was recently broken and may not hold intraday if it does in fact hold on the close. The January intraday high at 10,300 and the closing high at 10,259.74. Then 10,000 followed up by the 200 day MVA (9984.36).
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
3-25-02
Existing Home Sales, February (10:00): 5.88M (+2.8%) actual versus 5.50M expected and 6.04M prior.
3-26-02
Durable Orders, February (8:30): +1.5% actual versus 1.0% expected and 2.6% prior.
Consumer Confidence, March (10:00): 110.2 actual versus 98.0 expected and 94.1 prior.
3-27-02
New Home Sales, February (10:00): +5.3% to 875K units versus 880K expected and 831K prior (revised from 823K).
3-28-02
Initial Claims, 3/23 (8:30): 375K versus 371K prior.
GDP-Final, Q4 (8:30): 1.4% versus 1.4% prior.
Chain Deflator-Final, Q4 (8:30): -0.3% versus -0.2% prior.
Mich Sentiment-Rev., March (9:45): 95.0 versus 95.0 prior.
Chicago PMI, March (10:00): 54.0 versus 53.1 prior.
Help-Wanted Index, February (10:00): 47 versus 47 prior.
Personal Income, February (8:30): 0.2% versus 0.4% prior.
Personal Spending, February (8:30): 0.5% versus 0.4% prior.
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: You have been referring to the small and mid-cap indexes frequently lately. What are the ticker symbols for them?
A: Predominantly we look at the S&P 600 (small cap) and S&P 400 (mid-cap) to get a look at what these stocks are doing. The S&P 600 ticker is $SML. The S&P 400 is $MID.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: TMBR and APA in the energy sector. DGX continued to fly, breaking through resistance on stronger volume (clearing the earlier March high). HB was up again, almost a point, but volume was lower; it cleared the February high on the third day of a bounce from the 10 day MVA. Others: LQI, VWKS, PDX, OLGC
Target hit Wednesday: PETM (13.50; +20%)
Stocks from Tuesday's report:
VWKS: Broke out of the cup/flat base (a buy to 6.37 on the breakout)!
SFCC: Lower volume and a half-point gain after the stock blasted up in the test of the breakout Tuesday. Closed at our buy point, 26.10.
PCX: Held at the 18 day MVA on lower volume; looking for a bounce.
EXLN: 1.53 posing resistance in the test of the breakout.
SRCL: Looking for an 18 day MVA bounce but the stock fell back below that support Wednesday. Volume was lower; it needs further consolidation at the 50 day MVA (61.97) before it gives a good bounce.
Continued Plays: Still like SBUX, PEGS, CACOA, CSTR, HARB, ODP, SGI.
ASL: Tested the ascending wedge breakout and on strong volume Wednesday bounced from the 10 day MVA!
CBUK: Holding the 18 day MVA on very low volume as it tests the breakout from the recent consolidation.
CNB: Nice move today; strong volume and a move off of the 18 day MVA in the ascending wedge pattern! Buy point is 15.25.
FAX: Still looks good in the handle to its 7-month cup.
HKF: Strong volume and a move off of the 18 day MVA, clearing the recent ascending wedge pattern (the stock sold back to the 50 day MVA before it could break out, but caught up today!).
VVUS: Sold back to the 18 day MVA on some heavy profit-taking. The company announced today that it had begun clinical trials of a sexual dysfunction drug; good news as far as sector analysts are concerned. Massive volume is not good at all. Needs to hold above 8.12 to preserve breakout.
Best Plays:
1) WFMI: A tight test of the breakout.
2) SIB: Making a breakout move.
3) CHK: Strong bounce from the 18 day MVA.
4) HDI: Continues the ascending wedge pattern.
New plays:
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$46.82; -0.18; optionable): Grocery Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Testing the recent breakout from a 13-week double bottom with handle base, moving in a lateral-type pullback and holding above the buy point at 46.49. Volume has been building the last three days, remaining below average but higher Wednesday to 553,000 (avg. 496,000). Looking for a breakout over the March high in this current pattern, 47.50, hit twice in the last few days. WFMI formed the base at the top of a nice uptrend from the September lows at the 29 range. Money flow is outstanding. Target: 56
BUY POINT: Breakout: 47.60 on volume of 570,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 44.27
POSITION: Stock and/or August $40 calls to buy (FMQ HH; low open interests at this point; they will increase).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wfmi.html
SIB (Staten Island Bancorp--$20.07; +0.71; no options): Regional Banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sib.html
STATUS: After last summer's super run, SIB formed a cup with handle, broke out, and now has formed another, smaller cup with handle (9 weeks long). Wednesday, after pulling back for a week in a handle, the stock shot up from the short term MVAs, volume rising to 152,100 (avg. 147,000). Close to the March high (20.20), above which is the pivot for the breakout. SIB has good money flow, and relative strength is breaking higher. Target: 24
BUY POINT: Breakout: 20.30 on volume of 221,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 18.88
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sib.html
Energy stocks were moving well today; checking out another:
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$7.38; +0.39; optionable): Independent Oil & Gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
STATUS: Making a breakout move after testing its recent run that broke the stock above the 200 day MVA (6.38). After hitting the March high at 7.42 on that run, CHK pulled back on decreasing volume into the 18 day MVA from where it gave a solid bounce Wednesday. Volume was high at 1.97 million (avg. 1.14 million), pushing the stock to close within cents of the high. Looking for a continued bounce here, to start another run. Target is 9.10. CHK has huge money flow and strong buying.
BUY POINT: 7.45 on continued strong volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 6.93
POSITION: Stock and/or July $5 or $7.50 calls to buy (CHK GA or GU).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chk.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK.
LLL ($112.29; +3.88): Followed up the previous 2 days' test of the 50 day MVA by giving a strong bounce today; volume shot above average and the stock price above the 18 day MVA. We are still watching the double tops from earlier this month; those can pose resistance, and if LLL has trouble getting over that level, will have a chance to make the downside reversal discussed last night. The good volume off the 50 day MVA is a good start.
MIK ($37.80; +0.07): After closing just under the 10 day MVA Tuesday, was back above that support on lower volume Wednesday. The target for the covered call play, the 18 day MVA, is at 36.91, so not far away, and the stock looks ready to head back up. Time to buy back for the calls on a bounce (sell point was 38.40).
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
BBBY ($33.66; +1.01): If we weren't certain after Tuesday's move up to the 50 day MVA, we were today as the stock broke over that resistance on stronger volume. It remains in the 4-month flat base. Highs are around 36 in the pattern, and the stock has to take out resistance at 34-35. If it does that, we will start looking for a breakout.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
NOC (Northrup Grumman--$111.50; +4.00): Defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/noc.html
STATUS: Defense stocks stronger today, and NOC participated as it cleared the 110 resistance on strong, rising volume (1.97 million; avg. 1.36 million). Has some recent highs up to 112.70 and is below the January closing high (111.61), but on a continued bounce from the 50 day MVA (107.09), a good place to pick up some partial positions or as add-to's for a run to the February high range (117.80). Once there we can assess its chances for a breakout after a pullback. Options can give a better return for shorter term plays,
BUY POINT: 112.80 on continued rising volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 104.90
POSITION: Stock and/or August $105 calls to buy (AUG HA).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/noc.html
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$54.88; +0.28; optionable): Motorcycles
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
STATUS: Continues to move in the more or less flat base that has spanned the year thus far. Volume is below average save two days in early March, well under Wednesday at 863,900 (avg. 1.5 million). The pattern is holding support at the 18 day MVA (54.13), and we continue to look for a breakout from it. HDI entered the current 3-month base at the first of the year; it broke out to a high at 57 at the end of January but then tested the 200 day MVA just prior to forming the wedge. It crossed back over the 50 day MVA before doing so (that support is not far away at 53.36). Target on a breakout: 64
BUY POINT: 55.91 on volume of 2 million or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 52
POSITION: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (HDI HJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hdi.html
WMT ($62.00; -0.17): Stronger volume and a close below the 18 day MVA (62.08), with the stock tapping the up trendline on the intraday low. Broke over the resistance Tuesday but could not hold the position today. Would like to see it give a big cough and get the test of the 50 day MVA over with (60.56).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
yahoo stock
top stock pick
|
