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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Looking at both directions as we see how the Treasury fix plays out.
Play Date: 09/20/2008
BIG (Big Lots--$31.59; -0.38; optionable): Discount retail stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/big.html
EARNINGS: Third week of October
STATUS: Ascending base. Looking at BIG again as it recovered nicely in its 13 week base, making a higher low last week and bumping at the breakout point Friday. This is part of a larger 18 month reverse head and shoulders base setting up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Nice recovery to continue its base and patiently waiting to see if it will show us the breakout move this week as retail recovers from its recent pullback.
Volume: 3.598M Avg Volume: 3.272M
BUY POINT: $33.31 Volume=4.6M Target=$39.95 Stop=$24.55
POSITION: BIG AZ - Jan. $32.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/big.html
Play Date: 09/20/2008
CNMD (Conmed--$32.99; +2.00; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnmd.html
EARNINGS: Third week of October
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Friday CNMD showed a big volume surge (though it was expiration Friday and you have to discount the volume some) as it made the breakout move from its 17 month base. Not a stock that is subject to the short selling seen in financials and other sectors so this is real buying. Strong money flow and a strong stock technically and fundamentally. Ready to move into some positions as it continues higher and then again on the first test.
Volume: 699.51K Avg Volume: 267.937K
BUY POINT: $33.21 Volume=400K Target=$39.45 Stop=$31.44
POSITION: KQD KF - Nov. $30c (80 delta) or KQD BG - Feb. $35c (45 delta) &or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cnmd.html
Play Date: 09/20/2008
IIVI (Ii-Vi, Inc.--$43.84; +2.02; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iivi.html
EARNINGS: 10-21-08
STATUS: Breakout test. IIVI blasted out of a 14 week double bottom with handle base in early August, exploding higher on strong volume. It has tested during the market selling, fading but on very low volume. Held the 50 day SMA and 90 day SMA this month with a short double bottom, then gapping higher Friday on strong volume. Looking to pick it up here as it continues the resumption of the breakout move. Very strong.
Volume: 556.676K Avg Volume: 226.943K
BUY POINT: $44.32 Volume=325K Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.77
POSITION: JIU AI - Jan. $45c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/iivi.html
Play Date: 09/20/2008
MOS (Mosaic Company--$95.33; +10.60; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mos.html
EARNINGS: 10-1-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Looking for a bounce from MOS this week as it rebounds from some hard selling that started in June. Formed a small double bottom the past two weeks, breaking to the upside Friday. Looking to ride it up to near the 50 day SMA (108) on this bounce.
Volume: 9.365M Avg Volume: 7.677M
BUY POINT: $95.88 Volume=10M Target=$107.85 Stop=$91.91
POSITION: MOS LS - Dec. $95c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mos.html
Play Date: 09/20/2008
MVL (Marvel Enterprises--$36.65; +0.65; optionable): Movie productions, comics, entertainment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvl.html
EARNINGS: First week of November
STATUS: Ascending base. Excellent upside volume last week as MVL bumped at the breakout from its 14 week base, finally making the move Friday. It closed well off its high Friday, but looking very strong and ready to clear to a new all-time high, quietly showing outstanding strength in this market.
Volume: 1.815M Avg Volume: 1.047M
BUY POINT: $36.91 Volume=1.4M Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.45
POSITION: MVL AG - Jan. $35c (63 delta) &/or tock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mvl.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 09/20/2008
AAPL (Apple Computer--$140.91; +6.82; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: Third week of October
STATUS: Put. Reversed off of 120 on Thursday and rallied to the 10 day EMA (144.29) on the Friday high before fading off of that level on the close. Harsh selloff and a rebound to near resistance; if this is the start of a more pernicious downtrend or even if AAPL just tests that prior low to set up a new upside move, we are watching to see if it fails at this level to make that next test. That will give us a 40%ish gain to the initial target that is very conservative at roughly 11 clicks above the low. If it is falling hard we let it fall toward that September low at 121 for a really big gain.
Volume: 51.134M Avg Volume: 29.409M
BUY POINT: $139.94 Volume=45M Target=$132.35 Stop=$143.22
POSITION: APV VH - Oct. $140p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html
Play Date: 09/20/2008
BRCM (Broadcom--$21.39; +0.80; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
EARNINGS: Third week October
STATUS: Put. After a selloff starting mid-August and running through the Thursday low (18.55) BRCM bounced Thursday afternoon and Friday. It rallied up to the 18 day EMA (22.30) Friday and stalled, falling back to close at the 10 day EMA. This made it fail at the July low and is a nice set up for a new test lower back down to the prior low. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 19.387M Avg Volume: 14.974M
BUY POINT: $21.22 Volume=20M Target=$18.75 Stop=$22.41
POSITION: RCQ WX - Nov. $22.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/brcm.html
Play Date: 09/20/2008
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$24.24; +0.13; optionable): Chinese telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
EARNINGS: Last week November
STATUS: Put. Collapsed from a 5 month flat base last week and rebounded at the end of the week. It made it to the 50 day EMA (24.40), showing a doji at that level. Watching to see if it breaks lower again on solid trade. If it does we will play a serious breakdown below the Friday low (23.60), looking for CHT to fill that gap higher down at 21. A move to that level lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.838M Avg Volume: 1.22M
BUY POINT: $23.58 Volume=1.8M Target=$21.00 Stop=$24.69
POSITION: CHT VE - Oct. $25p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cht.html
Play Date: 09/20/2008
QID (QQQ Proshares UltraShort ETF--$46.14; -1.92; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qid.html
STATUS: Downside. After QQQQ rallied back from new 2008 lows Thursday and Friday it ran into the 18 day EMA with a gap higher and then reversed from that high on the close. It is likely to test once more whether it does so early next week or takes a bit more time before making that move. Will let it show us a break over the 10 day EMA (48.98) and we will use that as our entry point.
Volume: 36.4M Avg Volume: 45.8M
BUY POINT: $49.11 Volume=60M Target=$54.00 Stop=$47.32
POSITION: QID KV - Nov. $48c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qid.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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