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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/23/2008
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$17.94; +0.42; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
EARNINGS: 11-4-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. AMMD is ready to make its next run after coming off the bottom of a selloff in the last half of 2007. Based for 8 months then broke sharply higher in August. During the market selling AMMD tested back to the 50 day EMA (16.97) in a very orderly, low volume manner. Found support and some volume at the 50 day the past week and then jumped higher this week, rising when the market was weak. Stronger volume Tuesday as it continued the bounce. Very solid with money flow out leading the way higher. Looking to move in as AMMD continues the break higher. Very solid.
Volume: 1.553M Avg Volume: 936.957K
BUY POINT: $18.14 Volume=1.2M Target=$21.65 Stop=$16.87
POSITION: FGU AW - Jan. $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ammd.html
Play Date: 09/08/2008
TSO (Tesoro Petroleum--$18.20; +0.81; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tso.html
EARNINGS: Late October
STATUS: Trend reversal. Looking at TSO again as it continues to base laterally. It broke higher on strong volume in late August, breaking a long November 2007 to July downtrend. It wasn't able to do anything with that break right off the bat so we ended up dropping it. Strong volume Friday gapped TSO over the 50 day EMA (18.09). It tested Monday, found support Tuesday and bounced. Holding up very well, setting up for a break higher. Just needs to show the next break higher to let us know it is ready for the next let. That is when we move in.
Volume: 6.614M Avg Volume: 9.645M
BUY POINT: $19.44 Volume=9.6M Target=$23.95 Stop=$18.08
POSITION: TSO AW - Jan. $17.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tso.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 09/23/2008
WFC (Wells Fargo--$34.17; -1.01; optionable): Big banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfc.html
EARNINGS: Mid-October
STATUS: Breakout test. WFC made us some good money on that bailout plan surge. The move broke it out from a year long double bottom with handle base. It has come back this week to test, coming back on very low volume. Looking for the Buffett news to firm up the financials, and WFC will be there as well. It was trading near 35.40 after hours, just over our buy point. Looking to pick up some more positions as WFC resumes the break higher.
Volume: 32.667M Avg Volume: 62.536M
BUY POINT: $35.21 Volume=70M Target=$40.65 Stop=$33.31
POSITION: WFC AO - Jan. $34c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/23/2008
CEDC (Central European District--$44.90; +1.02; optionable): Polish beverage distributor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Put. Looking for another downside run from CEDC as it tests back up near the 10 day EMA (47.96) after that harsh selloff last week. Money flow is in the tank still, and looking for CEDC to fail at this near resistance and give us the next move lower. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 1.026M Avg Volume: 1.07M
BUY POINT: $44.54 Volume=1.4M Target=$38.22 Stop=$46.84
POSITION: CUV WI - Nov. $45p (-41 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cedc.html
Play Date: 09/23/2008
NEM (Newmont Mining--$42.77; -1.66; optionable): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nem.html
EARNINGS: 10-29-08
STATUS: Put. Gold surged on inflation worries, and while NEM did rally last week and gapped higher Monday, it is struggling at the 50 day SMA (44.04), threatening a lower high. Money flow is in the tank and while the metal is higher we suspect NEM is overdone and is heading back down. As it continues lower we are looking to move in. A run to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 9.824M Avg Volume: 8.802M
BUY POINT: $42.48 Volume=12M Target=$39.44 Stop=$43.65
POSITION: NEM WV - Nov. $42.50p (-43 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nem.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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