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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
Part 2 will be sent after Part 3.
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Set up for a bounce or better.
Play Date: 09/24/2008
RIG (Transocean--$124.49; +2.62; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
EARNINGS: 11-5-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Nice strong volume as RIG broke its down trendline from the May peak. After that surge RIG is testing back on very low trade, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (122.34). Broke the trend and setting up for a further upside move. Lots of overhead resistance but if it shows solid trade on the break higher we will start some positions. The leader in its sector, and a good trend break after a short double bottom with this short handle as well. A gap higher would be an island reversal and very bullish. Thus on a gap back up it is a buy.
Volume: 5.088M Avg Volume: 6.98M
BUY POINT: $126.33 Volume=9M Target=$137.95 Stop=$122.21
POSITION: RIG AE - Jan. $125c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rig.html
Play Date: 09/24/2008
SF (Stifel Financial--$48.21; +1.71; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sf.html
EARNINGS: Second week of November
STATUS: Test breakout. Made us some great money last week, and after testing back SF looks ready to make us more as a bailout plan gets close to passage. Nice hold at the 10 day EMA (45.66) and a bounce on Wednesday. The gap higher has been filled and now it is ready to make the move higher.
Volume: 288.564K Avg Volume: 380.048K
BUY POINT: $48.88 Volume=500K Target=$58.75 Stop=$45.57
POSITION: SF AI - Jan. $45c (80 delta, 147 OI wide spread) or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sf.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/24/2008
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$47.71; -2.70; optionable): Mining cranes, draglines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-08
STATUS: Put. A couple of lower highs after the June peak and then a crash lower to start September, diving through the 200 day SMA (57.75) as the 'Big 3' sectors were liquidated by the hedge funds. A short double bottom and a bounce last week, but unable to hold the near support at the 10 day EMA (48.92) and sliding lower Wednesday. Low volume so not a nasty rollover. Still money flow held lower during the bounce and has turned back down. Ready to move in as it continues to the downside. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 2.125M Avg Volume: 2.541M
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=2.6M Target=$40.35 Stop=$49.38
POSITION: HBU WJ - Nov. $50p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bucy.html
Play Date: 09/24/2008
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$66.50; -3.01; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: Third week of July
STATUS: Put. Another commodity stock that was sold hard in the hedge fund liquidation in July and then early September. It bounced last week but stalled at near resistance at the 18 day EMA (72.75), turning over and falling through the January low. Looking for it to make a third run lower in this selling. A move to our initial target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 11.026M Avg Volume: 13.69M
BUY POINT: $66.22 Volume=14M Target=$58.08 Stop=$68.41
POSITION: FCX WM - Nov. $65p -39 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock recommendation
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