stock split, stock research

Begin Part 3 of 3

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: TOL is still solid.
Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) AMAT - Nice move!
2) ADSK - Trending up
3) DCOM - Bouncing again

AMAT (Applied Materials--$54.27; +2.30; optionable): Splits 2:1 on or about 4-17-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amat.html
STATUS: Big gapping move up! Since breaking out of its December-February range, AMAT has formed a pennant, which is something of a handle to a cup dating back to the April 2001 high of 59.10. AMAT has been holding nicely over the 18 day MVA (50.96), and today gapped up and continued to run, tapping just over the March high at the intraday high of 54.40. Looking for a continued pre-split run. Strong money flow and relative strength broke out; target is 58.50.
PLAY: Over 54.60, with stock and/or May $50 calls to buy (ANQ EJ). Stop (7%): 50.87

ADSK (Autodesk--$46.69; +0.62; optionable): Software. Splits 2:1 effective 4-19-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adsk.html
STATUS: ADSK is making its steady way up along the short-term MVA's (18 day at 45.31), bouncing up a bit from that support the last two sessions. It is climbing toward the early March high (47.37; made on a strong rebound from 38). ADSK had formed a pennant, but could not make its way out last week, so we will see how this try fares. Looking good, and displayed good price/volume action on the February run and the formation of the subsequent pattern. Target: 53.
PLAY: Over 47.37 on volume of 1 million, with stock and/or July $45 calls to buy (ADQ GI). Stop: 44.05.

DCOM (Dime Community Bancshare--$30.80; +0.61): Splits 3:2 effective 4-25-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcom.html
STATUS: Stopped short of the 50 day MVA (29.57) on its retreat, showing a high volume doji Wednesday and then bouncing back up today (volume down but strong at 86,000; average 66,000). DCOM has been trending up nicely along its 50 day, and on a continued move we can catch it here for an unspectacular but steady ride to 34.
PLAY: Over 31, with stock.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS: TGIC could be trying something, and we are still looking at ETH downside, and PII is holding support.
1) GOSHA - Surges back to the verge of a new high
2) BBY - Looking good in its consolidation

GOSHA (Oshkosh--$42.86; +1.42; no options): Textile - apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gosha.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 on 8-10-98 at a stock price of $20. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: GOSHA fell out of a large ascending wedge in February, but has rebounded over the last few weeks from a low near 35. After vaulting over the 50 day MVA (40.14), it consolidated a bit but today blasted up, tapping the all-time high of 43. Volume was up and strong at 59,800 (average 41,800), so we will look for GOSHA to continue the move and finally get that new high. Target: 49.
BUY POINT: 43.20 on increased volume. Stop: 40.18 (7%).
POSITION: Stock only.

BBY (Best Buy--$79.20; +0.52; optionable): Electronics retailer.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Recently broke over its December-February range, and although volume was rather low on that series of moves, BBY is holding up nicely in a consolidation over the former highs and the 10 day MVA (78.20). BBY was settling nicely over that support, tapping it again at its low today as volume remained light (down to 2 million; average 2.87 million). Still holding the existing positions, and looking for new ones on a breakout. Target: 88 (all-time high at 88.88).
BUY POINT: 80.72 on volume of 3.85 million. Stop: 75.07 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or June $75 calls to buy (BBY FO).

POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) MGAM - Bouncing but needs volume

MGAM (Multimedia Games--$35.35; +1.41; optionable): Split 3:2 on February 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgam.html
STATUS: Took the bounce, but volume was still timid at 158,300 (average 260,000). Still looking good as this test held firm at the 18 day MVA (33.27) and former highs, and we are looking for a move up on better volume to take positions on a continued trend run. Target: 40 on this trend run.
PLAY: Over 35.70 on volume of 300,000 or better, with July $30 calls to buy (QMG GF - low open interest). Stop: 33.20 (7%). We can also add to stock positions.

WATCHLISTS:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: AHC (4/24), AROW, BMS, BRL, CTAS, DRYR, ESI (4/18), GTK, LE, MMM, MRBK, PHM, RNR, SLM, STU, SUI and XL.

ATK ($101.99; -0.01): Forecast to announce a split on 5-9-02 before the open with earnings. Nice breakout move on Wednesday, but the continued move stopped at 103.65, closing with a 'tombstone' doji today as volume was down only slightly. Still solid, and we could see a dip back to test 100 before running back up and continuing toward the target of 110. If it holds 100 on a lower volume pullback, we will look for a move back over 102 on continued strong volume (562,500 today; average 300,000). Stock and/or May or August $95 calls to buy (ATK ES or ATK HS).

CPS ($57.60; -0.16): Forecast to announce a split on 4-18-02 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm the date for the release, but based upon our research this is the date for the release. After the strong breakout CPS showed topping signs, pulling well back off of its intraday highs and then creeping gradually up on low volume. However, so far the pullback has been mild, and CPS has shown consecutive dojis comfortably over its 10 day MVA (56.94). Looking for it to hold this consolidation and make another move, where we can add to stock positions, and for new positions look at July $55 calls to buy (CPS GK). Targeting 64.

PDCO ($43.73; -0.02): Researching a date. A great breakout run, but we could see a test back after PDCO pulled back off of its intraday high of 44.67 to close with a doji. Looking for a hold of 42.50-43 to set up again and continue toward the target of 48.

RUS ($32.20; -0.48): Forecast for its annual shareholder meeting on 4-24-02 at
2:00 ET. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split. Trending up along the short-term MVA's, today dropping back off of the good move Wednesday, closing at the 10 day on higher volume. If it can hold (18 day at 32), we can look at positions on a strong move back up from support.

BER ($57.48; +0.18): Researching a new announcement date. Trending up along the 18 day MVA (56.43), building the right side of its cup base. Coming up to the left side high of the cup at 58.40, and we will see if it starts to form a handle here. Would set up very nicely for a breakout.

EASI ($46.25; +1.78): Forecast to announce a split 5-21-02 at earnings. Edging up along its 10 day MVA (44.67) in the handle to its cup pattern. Not the best action for a handle, but on a dip back that holds support it could set up for a strong breakout move. The buy point is 47 on volume of 300,000, with stock and/or August $40 calls to buy (UFE HH).

STI ($66.73; -0.66): Forecast to announce a split on 4-15-02 in conjunction with earnings or on 4-16-02 in conjunction with annual shareholder meeting to be held at 9:30 a.m. ET. STI is in the handle to a large double bottom dating back to August 2001 (high 72.35). It has held the 18 day MVA (66.30), and is trying to move but volume is light. The breakout is 68.57 on volume of 1.1 million. Stock and/or July $65 calls to buy (STI GM - July $65).

MUR ($96.00; +0.28): Working on a new date. Has been on a nice trend up. After a high volume, loose doji today, it could again test the 10 day MVA at 92.50 on the trend up toward the target of 100. We can look at positions on a bounce up after a test.

KRI ($68.69; +0.84): Forecast to announce a split on 4-24-02 before the open. Trying to move again, reaching up to 69.40 (all-time is 69.69), but holiday volume was low and the stock pulled back to close. Holding current positions and we will see if it can make a move over 69.50 on volume of 500,000 or better, with stock and/or July $65 (KRI GM - 45 open interest).

LSTR ($92.80; -1.04): Researching a new date. Holding up over the 10 day MVA (92.59) on low volume. After failing at the recent high, holding on without a drop is encouraging. Still looking for a new high (over 95.13) with volume of 90,000 or better, with stock.

PRE SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching DHI, THQI, TOL and MKC (the latter looking like a pullback).

JEC ($71.29; -0.75): Splits 2:1 on April 2. Coming into the split, but one that is in a cup with handle pattern. The handle is showing more volatility than we would like, but the aggressive can look at a move over 73 on volume of 295,000, with stock and/or July $70 calls to buy (JEC GN). Stop: 68.

NDN ($38.34; +0.49): Splits 4:3 effective 4-4-02. Broke over the center of the double bottom (38), but the low volume move does not inspire confidence. Still holding existing positions carefully as we go toward the split.

WTNY ($49.86; -1.89): Splits 3:2 effective 4-10-02. Made a nice move to a new high, but abruptly turned back today, and on strong selling (57,600; average 28,000). The 18 day MVA is key support at 49.39, and continued strong selling through that level will signal an exit.

DF ($75.72; -0.13): Splits 2:1 effective 4-24-02. Making a nice pre-split run, slowing Thursday with a tight doji. Holding positions, and if we do get a pullback to test support, we can look at new or additional positions on a move back up.

DRI ($40.59; +0.89): Splits 3:2 effective 5-2-02. Gapped way up today on an upgrade, testing back toward the 50 day (39.22) intraday. For any remaining put positions, we could get a test back that could give a better exit point.

PMI ($75.76; +0.56): Splits 2:1 on a date TBA (shareholder approval sought at 5-16-02 meeting). PMI made a nice bounce up after testing its 50 day MVA (71.36), moving with a good, sharp run back up on strong volume. Might need a rest here as it is back up at the high, so protecting short-term positions taken on the bounce.

WRI ($51.40; -0.25): Splits 3:2 effective 4-16-02. Still erratic, but made a nice move from its 50 day MVA (50.17). It hit a new high at 51.68 today, but closed with a doji on increased volume. The erratic behavior is not the best, and a move to a new high is an aggressive play, with stock only.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include APPB, AZO, BBBY, DHR, DIAN, EDS, ETH, GNSS, GOSHA, IGT, JCI, LLL, MI, PII, RARE, STJ, TGH, TGIC, THC and YUM.

HB ($61.63; -0.36): A pretty good breakout move, but a higher volume reversal today could spell a test back. It is currently holding prior highs, but it is likely we will get a further drop, and we are looking for it to hold the 10 day MVA, at 60.43.

DIAN ($64.88; +0.14): A good run but losing steam, as the moves have gotten smaller and today it showed a doji on higher, above average volume. Looking for 62.50 to hold on a pullback.

JCI ($88.31; +0.22): Hit the buy point on the bounce and looked like today it would continue, hitting 90.15 but reversing to close. Not much volume on the action, so JCI could still hold here and continue the run, although we will be prepared for a test back to the 50 day, at 86.

INVN ($40.20; +1.18): Is holding the 50 day MVA (39.37), a good sign after the news of the issuance of an additional public offering. With strong stocks we often see a dip on the news, but if they can hold on, they can make a strong recovery.

RYL ($93.95; +5.45): Made a strong bounce (that took out put position) and has drawn back a bit, holding the short-term MVA's. We will see if it holds and sets up again. in a good day for homebuilders. Riding positions taken on a flip to the upside, with the

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching ACS, CHS, GILD and SONC (dropped hard).

BSG ($35.25; -0.35): A slight dip today after the strong move through the buy point, and we are looking for BSG to hold 35 and continue the strength.

CHBS ($32.85; -0.53): Made a nice breakout move Wednesday, and still looks good after a lower volume pullback today. If it holds here, still a buy up to 33.75 on a strong continued move toward the target of 38.

ICUI ($36.40; +0.39): Split 3:2 effective 3-18-02. Moved up again on even stronger volume as the nice run continues. Target is 40, but we are keeping an eye on the high ahead at 37.30 as intervening resistance, seeing how it will handle that.

WLP ($63.67; +0.60): Split 2:1 effective 3-18-02. Gapped over the buy point and then tested back to 62.90 intraday, finally rebounding a bit to close. Volume was light, so it could signal a test back, that we will look to hold recent highs at 63.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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