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stock trading site, stock trading information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
After being so massively oversold we will wait for a break higher to play a rebound.
Upside:
Play Date: 10/07/2008
CHD (Church & Dwight--$61.30; -1.53; optionable): Cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chd.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Test breakout. CHD surged out of an 8 month base to start August as the company announced some very solid earnings results. It rallied to 63 and then fell into the current 9 week base, bouncing between 60 and 64.
The stock is making a higher low over the 50 day EMA (61.16), holding at that level on the Tuesday close. Needs to hold here and then break back higher with some strength to get us into the play. Very solid, holding its gains in a selling market.
Volume: 797.944K Avg Volume: 583.239K
BUY POINT: $63.48 Volume=870K Target=$71.45 Stop=$60.91
POSITION: CHD AL - Jan. $60c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chd.html
Play Date: 10/07/2008
CPB (Campbell Soup--$38.67; -0.27; optionable): Processed foods.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpb.html
EARNINGS: 11-24-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. CPB broke higher from a 15 month cup-like base in September, and then came back to test the 50 day EMA (37.57) quickly to end September. It then surged higher on very strong volume before testing back this week on lower though still above average volume. Holding over the 18 day EMA (38.51) on the pullback to test. Looking for this level to hold and for CPB to bounce back up from here and continue its run. Gotta' eat. Hope it is M'mm good.
Volume: 3.711M Avg Volume: 2.251M
BUY POINT: $39.42 Volume=3.5M Target=$44.89 Stop=$38.44
POSITION: CPB AU - Jan. $37.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cpb.html
Play Date: 10/07/2008
HGR (Hanger Orthopedic--$17.02; +0.06; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hgr.html
EARNINGS: 10-27-08
STATUS: Test 90 day SMA. HGR gapped higher in late April, breaking out from a 14 month tight trading range. Nice, strong rally up the near term support at the 10 and 18 day EMA. After four bounces up the trendline in the breakout it started to struggle, gapping lower in late September as it needed to test the strong upside run. It sold to the 90 day SMA (16.52) and then moved laterally along that support for a week on mostly lower volume. Volume started back up above average the past three sessions as HGR showed some positive action right over support. Looking for HGR to continue the run higher and if it makes the break on more good volume it is a buy. Very solid leadership characteristics.
Volume: 726.271K Avg Volume: 352.689K
BUY POINT: $17.69 Volume=535K Target=$21.31 Stop=$16.45
POSITION: HGR LW - Dec. $17.50c (40 delta, 83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hgr.html
Play Date: 10/08/2008
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 Trust--$32.65; -2.21; optionable)
STATUS: Massively oversold. NASDAQ has lost 700 points on this leg and the last week has been murder with 375 points or so given up. The rubber band is stretching big time on this decline and it will either snap and NASDAQ will fall into the depths, or it will snap back and bounce NASDAQ in a nice relief move. It will likely be more the latter. We are looking to move in as NASDAQ shows a reversal on some solid trade.
Volume: 329.54M Avg Volume: 194.378M
BUY POINT: $33.04 Volume=300M Target=$39.31 Stop=$32.08
POSITION: QAV LF - Dec. $32c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qqqq.html
Play Date: 10/08/2008
TFSL (TFS Financial--$12.98; -0.09; optionable): Midwest regional banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tfsl.html
EARNINGS: No data
STATUS: Test breakout. A new issue in April 2007, this is TFSL's second base. It is a bit12 month double bottom. TFSL broke out from this pattern in mid-September on strong volume. Nice gain then a test back to end September. Held and bounced off the 200 day SMA near 12 and rallied back up near the September breakout highs on this move (touched 13.50 intraday). Nice action, making higher lows at the 18 day EMA on this test. Looking for another break higher to step into some positions on TFSL.
Volume: 602.198K Avg Volume: 690.974K
BUY POINT: $13.48 Volume=1M Target=$16.31 Stop=$12.54
POSITION: UJJ AV - Jan. $12.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tfsl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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