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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Looking for some more upside with some good bases and others ready to reverse the selling.
Upside:
Play Date: 10/11/2008
FCN (FTI Consulting--$66.37; +2.07; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcn.html
EARNINGS: First week November
STATUS: Rolling. FCN sold back to its up January 2007/June 2008 up trendline this week, where it held and bounced up and down on some big volume to end the week. All the while it held the trendline, indicating in all of the market selling that it is going to find support here again and bounce to the upside in its uptrending channel. Ready to play it off the trendline up toward the upper channel line at 77.50ish. Very nice hold in an established uptrend.
Volume: 2.053M Avg Volume: 765.35K
BUY POINT: $67.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$77.45 Stop=$62.65
POSITION: FCN AM - Jan. $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcn.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
GXDX (Genoptix--$32.00; +0.50; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gxdx.html
EARNINGS: Last week of October
STATUS: Double bottom over the 200 day SMA. A new issue in November 2007. GXDX formed its first base from February to July 2008, breaking out to start August after a strong earnings report. Rallied to a new high near 40 and then started the test as the market sold off in August. It came back to the 200 day SMA (30.28) in mid-September, bounced, then tested that key level again last week, holding it on the closes. Big test Friday and big recovery on big volume. Nice double bottom to test the prior breakout with money flow still very strong. Great base on base pattern for this new issue that also sports strong fundamentals growth rates. Looking to jump on it as it breaks higher over the 50 day EMA (32.66).
Volume: 329.733K Avg Volume: 231.873K
BUY POINT: $32.87 Volume=350K Target=$39.95 Stop=$30.57
POSITION: QGR BF - Feb. $30c (62 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gxdx.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
POT (Potash--$91.08; -1.77; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
EARNINGS: Third week of October
STATUS: Trend reversal. Another one of the agriculture stocks that led the market up through June then rolled over as it was liquidated out of hedge fund portfolios. Ripped lower from the 200 day SMA (174) to end September and start October, but in last week's selling it showed relative strength, rising off the low. Sold back Friday but still working in the lateral move and putting in a higher low. Looking for some good volume to continue as POT breaks higher again. Looking for it to fill that early October gap lower from just over 125. Four gaps lower in this selling leg lower, and that usually means a leg is exhausted whether it was to the upside or downside.
Volume: 24.249M Avg Volume: 14.424M
BUY POINT: $93.04 Volume=2.5M Target=$118.00 Stop=$88.94
POSITION: PYP LR - Dec. $90c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pot.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
QSII (Quality Systems--$38.29; +2.29; optionable): Healthcare information services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qsii.html
EARNINGS: First week November
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. QSII spent the past 3 years moving in a big W base just off a new all-time high. The past year it has formed a big cup base, broke out in August on some strong earnings, rallying up over 48. Then the market selling caught it and it came back to test, filling that gap from August just this past week. It filled the gap as it sold back, but it also held above the key 200 day SMA (33.71) level where the big institutions either buy or sell a stock they own. Volume jumped as it tapped at the 200 day SMA on the intraday lows and bounced up; that shows the big buyers were coming back in. Big move Friday on big volume off an early test of the 200 day reiterates that. Looking for a move over the close at hand 50 day EMA (39.52) to give us the buy on this stock as it recovers off this test and moves toward that all-time high.
Volume: 878.472K Avg Volume: 359.038K
BUY POINT: $39.64 Volume=600K Target=$45.95 Stop=$37.65
POSITION: QCR LH - Dec. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qsii.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
SF (Stifel Financial--$40.45; +2.01; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sf.html
EARNINGS: Second week November
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Another strong stock that got shoved back in the selling to the key 200 day SMA (35.14). It held that level Friday and bounced on very strong, above average volume. SF formed a nice 12 month cup with handle base and broke out in September, making us some great money. It has dumped back to test in the market selling in some of the 'out with the bathwater' selling last week. Like the high volume as it tapped the 200 day and bounced. Looking to move in as it continues higher as this stock can fly when it gets its legs. Option spreads on this one are as wide as wide as Aunt Edna's butt. If the don't narrow when trade starts next week we will have to look at stock positions only on this one.
Volume: 643.537K Avg Volume: 386.724K
BUY POINT: $42.84 Volume=550K Target=$51.95 Stop=$40.11
POSITION: SF AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta, wide spread) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sf.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
THOR (Thoratec--$24.21; +2.47; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thor.html
EARNINGS: Last week of October
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. THOR gapped out of a 10 month cup with handle to start August, breaking out on good earnings. Surged to over 30 on the move then the market selling tore it down along with just about every other stock. Turns out that is just fine for us. Friday it reached all the way down to the 200 day SMA (18.56) on the low and then surged back up for an impressive gain in strong volume. Filled the gap, bounced right back, holding the breakout intact. Stalled at the 50 day EMA (24.58) on the high, so we are looking for a move over that level to start this week to give us the buy point. This is an exciting one as it actually has a very good base behind it.
Volume: 1.732M Avg Volume: 1.001M
BUY POINT: $24.72 Volume=1.2M Target=$29.91 Stop=$22.99
POSITION: TQU AX - Jan. $22.50c (67 delta, wide spread) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/thor.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
XLF (Financial Sector ETF--$15.10; +1.41; optionable)
STATUS: Trend reversal. If the G7 offers a solution this weekend the financials should breath a lot easier so why not try the financial ETF that was clubbed lower again last week to a new 2008 low? It looked pretty much sold out before that cascade lower but Friday it bounced on very strong volume. The combination of those two suggest that it is going to try a very fast rebound as it was already pelted with rocks and garbage (from 'The David Letterman Show' back in the mid-1980's).
Volume: 526.856M Avg Volume: 256.451M
BUY POINT: $15.31 Volume=275M Target=$18.11 Stop=$14.24
POSITION: XJZ LO - Dec. $15c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xlf.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 10/11/2008
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 Trust--$31.32; -0.20; optionable)
STATUS: Techs showed the relative strength last week so we are looking at additional positions in the Q's this week if the bounce continues.
Volume: 471.465M Avg Volume: 200.702M
BUY POINT: $31.55 Volume=300M Target=$39.31 Stop=$30.48
POSITION: QAV LF - Dec. $32c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qqqq.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Good Investing!
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