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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Looking for some more upside with some good bases and others ready to reverse the selling.
New Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 10/11/2008
AFAM (Almost Family, Inc.--$35.08; +1.97; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afam.html
EARNINGS: No information yet
STATUS: Test breakout. AFAM broke out from a textbook 17 month cup with handle base in July, rallying straight up to over 45 on the run. Then the market selling hit, and after such a good move it was a prime target. It sold quickly to the 50 day EMA (37.33) in September, then broke lower last week in the continued market selling. Friday it tested lower and reversed to hold the 90 day SMA (34.28) on the close. It needed a test and this is it. Looking for it to show some more volume on the upside as that was somewhat lacking Friday. Looking also for a move over the 50 day EMA to fill that gap lower to start last week. Very strong, just needs to show us the buyers are back in it.
Volume: 302.093K Avg Volume: 315.591K
BUY POINT: $37.48 Volume=450K Target=$44.95 Stop=$34.11
POSITION: KQA BG - Feb. $35c (57 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/afam.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
FCN (FTI Consulting--$66.37; +2.07; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcn.html
EARNINGS: First week November
STATUS: Rolling. FCN sold back to its up January 2007/June 2008 up trendline this week, where it held and bounced up and down on some big volume to end the week. All the while it held the trendline, indicating in all of the market selling that it is going to find support here again and bounce to the upside in its uptrending channel. Ready to play it off the trendline up toward the upper channel line at 77.50ish. Very nice hold in an established uptrend.
Volume: 2.053M Avg Volume: 765.35K
BUY POINT: $67.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$77.45 Stop=$62.65
POSITION: FCN AM - Jan. $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcn.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/11/2008
POT (Potash--$91.08; -1.77; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
EARNINGS: Third week of October
STATUS: Trend reversal. Another one of the agriculture stocks that led the market up through June then rolled over as it was liquidated out of hedge fund portfolios. Ripped lower from the 200 day SMA (174) to end September and start October, but in last week's selling it showed relative strength, rising off the low. Sold back Friday but still working in the lateral move and putting in a higher low. Looking for some good volume to continue as POT breaks higher again. Looking for it to fill that early October gap lower from just over 125. Four gaps lower in this selling leg lower, and that usually means a leg is exhausted whether it was to the upside or downside.
Volume: 24.249M Avg Volume: 14.424M
BUY POINT: $93.04 Volume=2.5M Target=$118.00 Stop=$88.94
POSITION: PYP LR - Dec. $90c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pot.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
QSII (Quality Systems--$38.29; +2.29; optionable): Healthcare information services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qsii.html
EARNINGS: First week November
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. QSII spent the past 3 years moving in a big W base just off a new all-time high. The past year it has formed a big cup base, broke out in August on some strong earnings, rallying up over 48. Then the market selling caught it and it came back to test, filling that gap from August just this past week. It filled the gap as it sold back, but it also held above the key 200 day SMA (33.71) level where the big institutions either buy or sell a stock they own. Volume jumped as it tapped at the 200 day SMA on the intraday lows and bounced up; that shows the big buyers were coming back in. Big move Friday on big volume off an early test of the 200 day reiterates that. Looking for a move over the close at hand 50 day EMA (39.52) to give us the buy on this stock as it recovers off this test and moves toward that all-time high.
Volume: 878.472K Avg Volume: 359.038K
BUY POINT: $39.64 Volume=600K Target=$45.95 Stop=$37.65
POSITION: QCR LH - Dec. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qsii.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
SF (Stifel Financial--$40.45; +2.01; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sf.html
EARNINGS: Second week November
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Another strong stock that got shoved back in the selling to the key 200 day SMA (35.14). It held that level Friday and bounced on very strong, above average volume. SF formed a nice 12 month cup with handle base and broke out in September, making us some great money. It has dumped back to test in the market selling in some of the 'out with the bathwater' selling last week. Like the high volume as it tapped the 200 day and bounced. Looking to move in as it continues higher as this stock can fly when it gets its legs. Option spreads on this one are as wide as wide as Aunt Edna's butt. If the don't narrow when trade starts next week we will have to look at stock positions only on this one.
Volume: 643.537K Avg Volume: 386.724K
BUY POINT: $42.84 Volume=550K Target=$51.95 Stop=$40.11
POSITION: SF AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta, wide spread) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sf.html
New Index Plays:
Play Date: 10/11/2008
XLF (Financial Sector ETF--$15.10; +1.41; optionable)
STATUS: Trend reversal. If the G7 offers a solution this weekend the financials should breath a lot easier so why not try the financial ETF that was clubbed lower again last week to a new 2008 low? It looked pretty much sold out before that cascade lower but Friday it bounced on very strong volume. The combination of those two suggest that it is going to try a very fast rebound as it was already pelted with rocks and garbage (from 'The David Letterman Show' back in the mid-1980's).
Volume: 526.856M Avg Volume: 256.451M
BUY POINT: $15.31 Volume=275M Target=$18.11 Stop=$14.24
POSITION: XJZ LO - Dec. $15c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xlf.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 10/11/2008
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 Trust--$31.32; -0.20; optionable)
STATUS: Techs showed the relative strength last week so we are looking at additional positions in the Q's this week if the bounce continues.
Volume: 471.465M Avg Volume: 200.702M
BUY POINT: $31.55 Volume=300M Target=$39.31 Stop=$30.48
POSITION: QAV LF - Dec. $32c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qqqq.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AFAM: Researching date.
CELG: Forecast January 2009. Big ready lower to support at 50 and reversed. Still struggling below the 200 day SMA at 62.50, a long way to go to bat over that level and a pattern that needs some more basing.
CNMD: Possible late October but looking more toward early 2009. Trying to recover the 200 day SMA Friday on big volume. Will see what it can do with resistance just over 28.
FCN: Tentatively set for November if the market can hold and recover heading into that time.
PNRA: Still seeing if this stock can recover from the selling that upset a nice pattern.
USNA: Could give us an announcement this week but given the market it may wait until after the first of the year.
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/10/2008
USNA (Usana Health Science--$41.89; +1.39; optionable): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usna.html
EARNINGS: 10-14-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid price move Friday, but volume did not move with USNA. Very solid move off the 50 day EMA but would like to see a little volume. Perhaps some caution ahead of earnings, but like the pattern a lot and if it moves well early this week we will venture some shares ahead of the results. To recap: Earnings are next week and USNA is set up pretty well going into the number with this 10 month cup with handle base. USNA has come back to end September and thus far in October, but it found and held the 50 day EMA (37.34) this week, holding that level as support on the lows and bouncing off of that level intraday. Was flat Thursday on low trade as USNA ignored the market selling. In excellent shape to break higher, and ready to move in as it does.
Volume: 124.984K Avg Volume: 259.159K
BUY POINT: $42.11 Volume=400K Target=$48.48 Stop=$39.16
POSITION: UNX AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta, 141 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/usna.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/08/2008
SNDK (Sandisk--$15.92; -1.11; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
EARNINGS: Third week of October but unconfirmed
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped lower Friday; SNDK finally had to fill that bap from mid-September. It did that and now that deed is done. It tested that level on the low and then rebounded to cut losses Friday as volume jumped above average. Looking to move in now as it fills the Friday gap lower and shows it is going to hold the move. See new buy point. To recap: SNDK formed a double bottom in July and September then gapped higher in mid-September as Samsung made an offer to buy it. It has come back to test that gap over the past three weeks, closing at the August and early September peaks. Strong money flow is leading the way higher as SNDK hangs in and sets up one of the better patterns to rally off of. Looking for some solid volume as SNDK breaks higher off of this test.
Volume: 11.63M Avg Volume: 11.884M
BUY POINT: New: $17.21 (orig. $18.88) Volume=18M Target=$22.95 Stop=$17.56
POSITION: SWQ AS - Jan. $19c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sndk.html
Former leader ready to reverse the selling:
Play Date: 10/10/2008
AGU (Agrium--$35.70; -1.92; optionable): Agriculture chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: 11-5-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Lost some ground Friday but recovered off the lows and continued in its week long lateral move. Showing that same relative strength and looking for that strong volume here in this narrow lateral range to blast it higher. To recap: Working laterally this week after the bit late September to early October drop that took AGU out of a decent 13 week base. Good upside volume and lower on the downside as it works laterally. In great position to make a bounce higher on a market bounce. Rather modest initial target, but with these market conditions that would be a great start.
Volume: 11.914M Avg Volume: 5.876M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $37.88 (orig. $40.21) Volume=10M Target=$49.75 Stop=$37.40
POSITION: AGU AH - Jan. $40c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agu.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trade stock
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