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Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS:

Some upside some downside.

Upside:

Play Date: 10/14/2008
AAPL (Apple Computer--$104.08; -6.18; optionable): iPods, computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 10-21-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Gapped higher Monday over the 10 day EMA (102.82) and gapped again on Tuesday. Couldn't hold the move Tuesday as the techs were sold off. AAPL sold on strong volume, but it held the 10 day EMA (102.82) on the low. Going to watch and see if AAPL holds here and starts the move back up. Looking to ride a move up to the gap down point from late September.
Volume: 70.8M Avg Volume: 37.232M
BUY POINT: $107.21 Volume=60M Target=$122.94 Stop=$102.48
POSITION: QAA AA - Jan. $105c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html

Play Date: 10/14/2008
BRKL (Brookline Bancorp--$11.42; +0.62; no options): Savings and loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brkl.html
EARNINGS: 10-16-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Taking another look at BRKL now that the federal fix is in. BRKL formed a 13 month double bottom base, tried to form a handle to start October, but the market selling sent it lower and through the 200 day SMA (10.36). Bounced right back through that key level Monday, tested it Tuesday, and then rallied Tuesday as the market sold. Looking for another strong move to show us the buyers are still coming after it and give us the entry point.
Volume: 825.328K Avg Volume: 722.748K
BUY POINT: $11.68 Volume=1M Target=$14.95 Stop=$10.86
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/brkl.html

Downside:

Play Date: 10/14/2008
BIG (Big Lots--$23.11; -2.47; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/big.html
EARNINGS: Third week November
STATUS: Put. A pair of peaks in June and August followed by a lower high in September. That sent BIG lower and through the 200 day SMA (25.56) last week. It has bounced up to the 200 day SMA this week, gapped through it Tuesday and then rolled over on very strong, above average volume. Money flow is diving lower ahead of the price and BIG looks ready to follow it. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 4.258M Avg Volume: 3.268M
BUY POINT: $22.94 Volume=3.5M Target=$20.34 Stop=$24.08
POSITION: BIG WE - Nov. $25p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/big.htm

Play Date: 10/14/2008
DUG (Oil & Gas Ultrashort ETF--$47.55; +0.35; optionable)
STATUS: After breaking support at 85, oil rebounded back up to test that support but then rolled over Tuesday on rising volume. DUG moves inversely to oil and that move sent DUG to the 50 day EMA and rebounded as oil started to sell again. Looking for oil to fade again and move to a new low again.
Volume: 22.328M Avg Volume: 21.95M
BUY POINT: $48.57 Volume=25M Target=$59.00 Stop=$45.17
POSITION: DUG KV - Nov. $48c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dug.html

Play Date: 10/14/2008
OSG (Overseas Shipholding--$47.93; -0.27; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osg.html
EARNINGS: Late October
STATUS: Put. Broad top May to July then a break below the 200 day SMA (now at 70) to start August. Moved laterally and tried to consolidate August to mid-September and then sank in the October selling, riding down below the 10 day EMA (48.14). Bounced this week off the Friday market reversal. Tuesday it gapped over the 10 day EMA. As with most stocks, it could not hold the move and closed just below that level. The dive lower took OSG below a 7 month flat consolidation in late 2005/early 2006. This rebound took it back up to test that level on low volume. Looking for OSG to fail at that resistance and roll back down. A move to the initial target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 747.185K Avg Volume: 753.633K
BUY POINT: $47.45 Volume=1M Target=$40.05 Stop=$48.44
POSITION: OSG WJ - Nov. $50p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/osg.html

Play Date: 10/14/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$33.82; +0.64; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 11-5-08
STATUS: Put. Peaked in June, sold back into early August, moved laterally into last September, rising back to the 200 day SMA (now at 57). Failed there and dove lower into the October selling. Reversed Friday with the rest of the market after a big gap lower, rising this week on lower and lower volume, tapping at the 10 day EMA (36.66) on the high and then fading. Looking for XTO to turn over and sell once more. A move to the initial target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 17.619M Avg Volume: 15.784M
BUY POINT: $33.48 Volume=20M Target=$28.42 Stop=$34.32
POSITION: XTO WG - Nov. $35p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Good Investing!

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