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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Leader/Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 10/14/2008
AAPL (Apple Computer--$104.08; -6.18; optionable): iPods, computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 10-21-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Gapped higher Monday over the 10 day EMA (102.82) and gapped again on Tuesday. Couldn't hold the move Tuesday as the techs were sold off. AAPL sold on strong volume, but it held the 10 day EMA (102.82) on the low. Going to watch and see if AAPL holds here and starts the move back up. Looking to ride a move up to the gap down point from late September.
Volume: 70.8M Avg Volume: 37.232M
BUY POINT: $107.21 Volume=60M Target=$122.94 Stop=$102.48
POSITION: QAA AA - Jan. $105c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/14/2008
TKC (Turkcell--$15.14; +0.40; optionable): Turkish wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkc.html
EARNINGS: 11-5-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Peaked in December and trended lower since. Made a couple of attempts to break it, once in February, once in late July. Since then it has continued lower, but TKC made a pair of lows in short order, one in September, the other last week. That bounced TKC right back up to the trendline, tapping at it on the Tuesday high (16.08) and fading back. Strong upside volume shows accumulation underway. TKC is massing for a trend change and when it makes the move we can move in.
Volume: 3.085M Avg Volume: 1.796M
BUY POINT: $16.21 Volume=2.5M Target=$19.22 Stop=$15.08
POSITION: TKC AC - Jan. $15c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tkc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/14/2008
BIG (Big Lots--$23.11; -2.47; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/big.html
EARNINGS: Third week November
STATUS: Put. A pair of peaks in June and August followed by a lower high in September. That sent BIG lower and through the 200 day SMA (25.56) last week. It has bounced up to the 200 day SMA this week, gapped through it Tuesday and then rolled over on very strong, above average volume. Money flow is diving lower ahead of the price and BIG looks ready to follow it. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 4.258M Avg Volume: 3.268M
BUY POINT: $22.94 Volume=3.5M Target=$20.34 Stop=$24.08
POSITION: BIG WE - Nov. $25p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/big.htm
Play Date: 10/14/2008
DUG (Oil & Gas Ultrashort ETF--$47.55; +0.35; optionable)
STATUS: After breaking support at 85, oil rebounded back up to test that support but then rolled over Tuesday on rising volume. DUG moves inversely to oil and that move sent DUG to the 50 day EMA and rebounded as oil started to sell again. Looking for oil to fade again and move to a new low again.
Volume: 22.328M Avg Volume: 21.95M
BUY POINT: $48.57 Volume=25M Target=$59.00 Stop=$45.17
POSITION: DUG KV - Nov. $48c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dug.html
Play Date: 10/14/2008
OSG (Overseas Shipholding--$47.93; -0.27; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osg.html
EARNINGS: Late October
STATUS: Put. Broad top May to July then a break below the 200 day SMA (now at 70) to start August. Moved laterally and tried to consolidate August to mid-September and then sank in the October selling, riding down below the 10 day EMA (48.14). Bounced this week off the Friday market reversal. Tuesday it gapped over the 10 day EMA. As with most stocks, it could not hold the move and closed just below that level. The dive lower took OSG below a 7 month flat consolidation in late 2005/early 2006. This rebound took it back up to test that level on low volume. Looking for OSG to fail at that resistance and roll back down. A move to the initial target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 747.185K Avg Volume: 753.633K
BUY POINT: $47.45 Volume=1M Target=$40.05 Stop=$48.44
POSITION: OSG WJ - Nov. $50p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/osg.html
Play Date: 10/14/2008
XTO (XTO Energy--$33.82; +0.64; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
EARNINGS: 11-5-08
STATUS: Put. Peaked in June, sold back into early August, moved laterally into last September, rising back to the 200 day SMA (now at 57). Failed there and dove lower into the October selling. Reversed Friday with the rest of the market after a big gap lower, rising this week on lower and lower volume, tapping at the 10 day EMA (36.66) on the high and then fading. Looking for XTO to turn over and sell once more. A move to the initial target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 17.619M Avg Volume: 15.784M
BUY POINT: $33.48 Volume=20M Target=$28.42 Stop=$34.32
POSITION: XTO WG - Nov. $35p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AFAM: Researching date.
CELG: Forecast January 2009. Rebounded to the 200 day SMA but turned back Tuesday on rising volume. Key point for CELG.
CNMD: Possible late October but looking more toward early 2009. Really in trouble as it fails at the 200 day SMA.
FCN: Tentatively set for November if the market can hold and recover heading into that time.
PNRA: Not looking good, turning back down at the 200 day SMA
USNA: Announced earnings after the close. It missed by six cents. Not good.
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/11/2008
FCN (FTI Consulting--$68.56; -0.06; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcn.html
EARNINGS: First week November
STATUS: Rolling. Gapped off the bottom of its channel Monday, tried to extend Tuesday but reversed to close flat. Held the 10 day EMA (67.47) and may come back to that again before it continues higher, may not. It has held up well and an upside break on some ore solid volume is a good entry point. To recap: FCN sold back to its up January 2007/June 2008 up trendline this week, where it held and bounced up and down on some big volume to end the week. All the while it held the trendline, indicating in all of the market selling that it is going to find support here again and bounce to the upside in its uptrending channel. Ready to play it off the trendline up toward the upper channel line at 77.50ish. Very nice hold in an established uptrend.
Volume: 887.864K Avg Volume: 770.809K
BUY POINT: New: $69.12 (orig. $67.11) Volume=1.2M Target=$77.45 Stop=$62.65
POSITION: FCN AM - Jan. $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/13/2008
RIMM (Research in Motion--$60.12; -3.75; optionable): Blackberry PDA's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 12-18-08
STATUS: Trend reversal/double bottom. Gapped higher Tuesday, finished lower. Still in the nice little base, still looking for the next break higher that holds the move. To recap: RIMM has put in a very short double bottom as it tries to reverse the downtrend selling that started in August. Gapped sharply lower to end September on earnings as it missed. It was torched and solid down to the early May 2007 point where it broke out from a 6 month consolidation. Jumped higher off a reversal Friday, moving just over the 10 day EMA (63.70) on the close. Looking for a snap back rally to the prior gap down point that is also at the January and February 2008 lows. It could rally much further than that and try to fill that gap down from just over 90. That would be quite a move, and likely won't be accomplished until the market overall makes the test of this last low hit Friday. In the interim we will look at riding RIMM up on this bounce for what it will give and then wait for it to test and then come back in again.
Volume: 37.805M Avg Volume: 24.467M
BUY POINT: $64.32 Volume=30M Target=$76.95 Stop=$61.32
POSITION: RFY AH - Jan. $63.38c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
SF (Stifel Financial--$43.81; -0.09; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sf.html
EARNINGS: Second week November
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Testing the 50 day EMA (42.77) on the Tuesday low and bouncing to flat. Set up well to make its next break higher. To recap: Another strong stock that got shoved back in the selling to the key 200 day SMA (35.14). It held that level Friday and bounced on very strong, above average volume. SF formed a nice 12 month cup with handle base and broke out in September, making us some great money. It has dumped back to test in the market selling in some of the 'out with the bathwater' selling last week. Like the high volume as it tapped the 200 day and bounced. Looking to move in as it continues higher as this stock can fly when it gets its legs. Option spreads on this one are as wide as wide as Aunt Edna's butt. If the don't narrow when trade starts next week we will have to look at stock positions only on this one.
Volume: 335.048K Avg Volume: 386.186K
BUY POINT: New: $44.57 (orig. $42.84) Volume=550K Target=$51.95 Stop=$40.11
POSITION: SF AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta, wide spread) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sf.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAY:
Play Date: 10/13/2008
SPTN (Spartan Stores--$25.46; +0.11; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sptn.html
EARNINGS: 10-15-08 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Familiar story, gapping higher then giving back most of the move. Still in good position, and as SPTN moves higher again it is a buy. To recap: SPTN came right back from the gap lower to the 200 day SMA, and we are looking at it again. Earnings are Wednesday making this a more aggressive play, but like how SPTN continues to set up a very positive upside base, rallying Monday on the strongest volume since June. If it continues higher we are looking at some positions ahead of earnings given its sector and pattern. Strong money flow continues leading higher.
Volume: 454.225K Avg Volume: 196.409K
BUY POINT: $26.31 Volume=275K Target=$30.45 Stop=$24.47
POSITION: QGH AE - Jan. $25c (62 delta, 50 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sptn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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