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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Leaders: A couple of new upside plays in pretty darn decent patterns.
Play Date: 10/16/2008
QCOR (Questcor Pharma--$7.24; +0.53; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcor.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-08 (not confirmed)
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout test. QCOR broke out from a nicely formed 10 month base in early September, rallying to 7.81 on the move. Got a bit wild in the market selling, but after a couple of big reaches intraday low it would recover nicely, holding above the 50 day EMA (6.22) on all of the closes. Bumping up against the top of the trading range formed the past couple of weeks, ready to follow it strong money flow higher and on to a new high. Very solid and some really good buying in it over the past couple of months that looks ready to drive it higher.
Volume: 814.785K Avg Volume: 803.065K
BUY POINT: $7.54 Volume=1.2M Target=$9.12 Stop=$7.01
POSITION: QSC AU - Jan. $7.50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qcor.html
Play Date: 10/16/2008
TCBI (Texas Capital Bancshares--$20.00; +1.74; optionable): Southwest regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tcbi.html
EARNINGS: 10-22-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working on a 5 week, rather ragged handle to an 11 month base. Surged higher on the bailout plan proposal but then was caught in the backwash of all the political and market turmoil that followed. It sold off, rebounded off a big intraday reach lower last Friday, and has set up shop over the 50 day EMA (18.42), working laterally as it prepares to move back up. Volume surged Thursday to the best levels since that selloff and reversal last Friday. Very strong money flow is out in front of the stock and ready to move in as TCBI makes the break higher.
Volume: 490.038K Avg Volume: 334.964K
BUY POINT: $20.28 Volume=500K Target=$24.45 Stop=$18.86
POSITION: TQO LD - Dec. $20c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tcbi.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AFAM: Researching date.
CELG: Forecast January 2009. Second test of 50 on the intraday low and another big reversal. Promising but ha to get over the 200 day SMA (62.62).
CNMD: Possible late October but looking more toward early 2009. Really in trouble as it fails at the 200 day SMA.
FCN: Tentatively set for November. Could not hold the 200 day SMA and now trying to recover.
PNRA: Trying to set up a short double bottom here below the 200 day SMA
USNA: Announced earnings after the close. It missed by six cents but had a good session.
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 10/14/2008
AAPL (Apple Computer--$101.89; +3.94; optionable): iPods, computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 10-21-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Good reach lower Thursday and then a recovery to positive on very strong, rising volume. Making a higher low and we are ready to move in as AAPL continues higher. To recap: Gapped higher Monday over the 10 day EMA (102.82) and gapped again on Tuesday. Couldn't hold the move Tuesday as the techs were sold off. AAPL sold on strong volume, but it held the 10 day EMA (102.82) on the low. Going to watch and see if AAPL holds here and starts the move back up. Looking to ride a move up to the gap down point from late September.
Volume: 69.958M Avg Volume: 37.609M
BUY POINT: $102.32 Volume=60M Target=$119.95 Stop=$97.45
POSITION: QAA AA - Jan. $105c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/04/2008
NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$10.32; +0.66; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
EARNINGS: Early November
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working in the handle to its 13 month base, bouncing off the 50 day EMA (9.46) on the Thursday low on rising, almost average volume. Want to see some more volume as it makes the move. Excellent money flow is leading higher and we are looking for NDN to follow the money and show us the breakout.
Volume: 1.718M Avg Volume: 1.702M
BUY POINT: $10.42 Volume=2.3M Target=$14.75 Stop=$9.69
POSITION: NDN AB - Jan. $10c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ndn.html
Play Date: 10/13/2008
RIMM (Research in Motion--$59.24; +3.49; optionable): Blackberry PDA's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 12-18-08
STATUS: Trend reversal/double bottom. Tight doji Thursday on rising, above average volume as RIMM works in its lateral consolidation. Looking to move in if RIMM can show us a good upside day again on strong volume . . . again. To recap: RIMM has put in a very short double bottom as it tries to reverse the downtrend selling that started in August. Gapped sharply lower to end September on earnings as it missed. It was torched and solid down to the early May 2007 point where it broke out from a 6 month consolidation. Jumped higher off a reversal Friday, moving just over the 10 day EMA (63.70) on the close. Looking for a snap back rally to the prior gap down point that is also at the January and February 2008 lows. It could rally much further than that and try to fill that gap down from just over 90. That would be quite a move, and likely won't be accomplished until the market overall makes the test of this last low hit Friday. In the interim we will look at riding RIMM up on this bounce for what it will give and then wait for it to test and then come back in again.
Volume: 34.745M Avg Volume: 24.83M
BUY POINT: $60.77 Volume=30M Target=$72.00 Stop=$57.55
POSITION: RFY AH - Jan. $63.38c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
SF (Stifel Financial--$44.13; +3.91; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sf.html
EARNINGS: Second week November
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Bounced right back off the 90 day SMA (40.48) where it closed Wednesday, rallying on rising, average volume. Ready to move in as it continues its break, looking for a bit stronger volume. To recap: Another strong stock that got shoved back in the selling to the key 200 day SMA (35.14). It held that level Friday and bounced on very strong, above average volume. SF formed a nice 12 month cup with handle base and broke out in September, making us some great money. It has dumped back to test in the market selling in some of the 'out with the bathwater' selling last week. Like the high volume as it tapped the 200 day and bounced. Looking to move in as it continues higher as this stock can fly when it gets its legs. Option spreads on this one are as wide as wide as Aunt Edna's butt. If the don't narrow when trade starts next week we will have to look at stock positions only on this one.
Volume: 422.961K Avg Volume: 385.121K
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=550K Target=$54.95 Stop=$42.08
POSITION: SF AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta, wide spread) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sf.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAY:
Play Date: 10/15/2008
MA (MasterCard--$156.68; +3.13; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: 11-3-08
STATUS: Lateral box. Reached down below the bottom of its three week range Thursday then reversed to positive on big volume. Looking to move in as MA continues higher on continued strong volume. To recap: Selling back but held support at 150 on Wednesday, the bottom of its three week lateral move. Looking for a solid bounce from around this level to move into to some more positions.
Volume: 5.625M Avg Volume: 4.475M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher (orig. $155.88) Volume=6M Target=$172.45 Stop=$149.72
POSITION: MAL AK - Jan. $155c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ma.html
Play Date: 10/13/2008
SPTN (Spartan Stores--$26.25; +3.21; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sptn.html
EARNINGS: 10-15-08 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Good earnings reversed SPTN from that Wednesday selloff. Strong volume yet again, topping the Wednesday selling volume. Closed off the highs again, unable to push through the recent peaks this month. Very solid and patiently waiting for SPTN to show the move higher and hold it. To recap: SPTN came right back from the gap lower to the 200 day SMA, and we are looking at it again. Earnings are Wednesday making this a more aggressive play, but like how SPTN continues to set up a very positive upside base, rallying Monday on the strongest volume since June. If it continues higher we are looking at some positions ahead of earnings given its sector and pattern. Strong money flow continues leading higher.
Volume: 493.043K Avg Volume: 204.917K
BUY POINT: $26.31 Volume=275K Target=$30.45 Stop=$24.47
POSITION: QGH AE - Jan. $25c (62 delta, 50 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sptn.html
CONTINUING INDEX PLAY:
Play Date: 10/15/2008
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 Trust--$32.26; +1.66; optionable)
STATUS: Reached down just below the 2008 low set last Friday and then reversed to close position on the strongest volume since mid-September. Excellent action and ready to move in as QQQQ continues higher. To recap: Heading back to last Fridays lows (29.38) rapidly. As with the other index plays we are watching how it holds around that prior low and if it delivers a bounce for us to move into.
Volume: 492.188M Avg Volume: 209.075M
BUY POINT: $31.21 Volume=325M Target=$35.55 Stop=$30.11
POSITION: QAV LC - Dec. $29c &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qqqq.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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