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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/18/2008
ALK (Alaska Air--$22.16; -1.71; optionable): Regional airline
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alk.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-08 before the open
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ALK has formed a short but deep reverse head and shoulders pattern the past 6 weeks. As oil prices are falling, ALK is setting up to break higher with some very strong above average volume sessions on the upside the past two weeks. This base has formed at the tail end of a larger 8 month base that is part of a larger base . . . suffice it to say airline stocks have suffered as oil rose. Plenty of basing under ALK's belt, and this strong upside volume and surging money flow tell us that ALK is ready to make the break higher. Earnings are Thursday and it looks as if it is going to make the breakout before then.
Volume: 1.55M Avg Volume: 1.099M
BUY POINT: $23.11 Volume=1.6M Target=$27.85 Stop=$21.49
POSITION: ALK AX - Jan. $22.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/alk.html
Play Date: 10/18/2008
ANR (Alpha Natural Resources--$38.08; +1.86; optionable): Industrial metals, minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anr.html
EARNINGS: 10-29-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Up like a rocket from February to July, put in a 2.5 month top, and then over the cliff in September, falling from 105 to 30 to start October. Moving laterally the past two weeks in a lateral box pattern, showing higher volume on the upside sessions. Looks as if it is going to make the break higher. We can play this as an upside play on a break higher alone, or we can buy it as it clears the 10 day EMA (38.49) and sell the November $35 calls (selling for $7.60 Thursday) for a 19+% premium versus the cost of the stock, or let it bounce higher and sell the $40c (ANR KH).
Volume: 6.307M Avg Volume: 4.607M
BUY POINT: $38.74 Volume=6M Target=$48.88 Stop=$36.15
POSITION: ANR AG - Jan. $35c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anr.html
Play Date: 10/18/2008
ISYS (Integral Systems--$19.03; +1.04; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isys.html
EARNINGS: Third week of October
STATUS: Trend reversal. Volume moved above average for the first time in four weeks Thursday as ISYS broke higher over its 2.5 month downtrend after peaking a run in mid-August. Great strength then it was in a base when the selling high this month. That dropped it hard but a break recovery. Money flow is strong, turning higher this past week. Nice break over the trendline and ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 393.758K Avg Volume: 417.717K
BUY POINT: $19.54 Volume=465K Target=$24.89 Stop=$18.17
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/isys.html
Play Date: 10/18/2008
NDAQ (Nasdaq Stock Market--$30.99; +2.90; optionable): Exchange
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndaq.html
EARNINGS: 11-6-08
STATUS: Double bottom. NDAQ is coming off the second leg of a double bottom base with its first low in July and now its second low with the October selling. Nice big 10 month pattern, gapping higher Friday on the strongest volume in a month. Money flow is screaming higher and NDAQ looks ready to do the same.
Volume: 6.78M Avg Volume: 3.622M
BUY POINT: $31.44 Volume=4.2M Target=$38.75 Stop=$29.24
POSITION: NQD AF - Jan. $30c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ndaq.html
Continuing plays that still look ready to move:
Play Date: 10/14/2008
AAPL (Apple Computer--$97.40; -4.49; optionable): iPods, computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 10-21-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Big reach lower Friday down to 85.89 and a reversal on lower but still strong, above average volume. Good shakeout Thursday and Friday with those two reaches lower. That typically clears out the sellers and opens the way for a move higher. That is what we are looking for. Earnings are Tuesday after the close and while it is very aggressive we are looking at taking some positions ahead of that announcement. To recap: Gapped higher Monday over the 10 day EMA (102.82) and gapped again on Tuesday. Couldn't hold the move Tuesday as the techs were sold off. AAPL sold on strong volume, but it held the 10 day EMA (102.82) on the low. Going to watch and see if AAPL holds here and starts the move back up. Looking to ride a move up to the gap down point from late September.
Volume: 62.97M Avg Volume: 38.668M
BUY POINT: $102.32 Volume=60M Target=$119.95 Stop=$97.45
POSITION: QAA AA - Jan. $105c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html
Play Date: 10/15/2008
MA (MasterCard--$156.75; +0.07; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: 11-3-08
STATUS: Lateral box. Tried to make the move Friday with a nice surge up to 167, but it could not hold the move as volume slipped to average. Still very solid, and on a continued move higher we are looking to move in. To recap: Selling back but held support at 150 on Wednesday, the bottom of its three week lateral move. Looking for a solid bounce from around this level to move into to some more positions.
Volume: 3.967M Avg Volume: 4.443M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher (orig. $155.88) Volume=6M Target=$172.45 Stop=$149.72
POSITION: MAL AK - Jan. $155c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ma.html
Play Date: 10/16/2008
QCOR (Questcor Pharma--$7.15; -0.09; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcor.html
EARNINGS: 10-23-08 (not confirmed)
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout test. Tried the move Friday but volume did not follow the stock price and it faded back. Still solid, still in position to make the break higher. To recap: QCOR broke out from a nicely formed 10 month base in early September, rallying to 7.81 on the move. Got a bit wild in the market selling, but after a couple of big reaches intraday low it would recover nicely, holding above the 50 day EMA (6.22) on all of the closes. Bumping up against the top of the trading range formed the past couple of weeks, ready to follow it strong money flow higher and on to a new high. Very solid and some really good buying in it over the past couple of months that looks ready to drive it higher.
Volume: 758.081K Avg Volume: 807.762K
BUY POINT: $7.54 Volume=1.2M Target=$9.12 Stop=$7.01
POSITION: QSC AU - Jan. $7.50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qcor.html
Play Date: 10/13/2008
RIMM (Research in Motion--$59.01; -0.23; optionable): Blackberry PDA's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 12-18-08
STATUS: Trend reversal/double bottom. Moving higher Friday, testing the 10 day EMA (60.34) but could not hold the move through that level. Solid volume the past two weeks as it moves laterally shows a bottom taking place. Looking for a break higher off of this lateral box to give us the buy. To recap: RIMM has put in a very short double bottom as it tries to reverse the downtrend selling that started in August. Gapped sharply lower to end September on earnings as it missed. It was torched and solid down to the early May 2007 point where it broke out from a 6 month consolidation. Jumped higher off a reversal Friday, moving just over the 10 day EMA (63.70) on the close. Looking for a snap back rally to the prior gap down point that is also at the January and February 2008 lows. It could rally much further than that and try to fill that gap down from just over 90. That would be quite a move, and likely won't be accomplished until the market overall makes the test of this last low hit Friday. In the interim we will look at riding RIMM up on this bounce for what it will give and then wait for it to test and then come back in again.
Volume: 29.281M Avg Volume: 24.98M
BUY POINT: $60.77 Volume=30M Target=$72.00 Stop=$57.55
POSITION: RFY AH - Jan. $63.38c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
Play Date: 10/11/2008
SF (Stifel Financial--$45.19; +1.06; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sf.html
EARNINGS: Second week November
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Volume broke above average Friday as SF moved up. It backed off on the close, however, so we were not in a rush to buy and will watch how it performs Monday. If it continues higher we take some positions and see how it tests. If it starts with a give back some to test the Friday move, we pick it up if it starts to rebound from somewhere in the vicinity of the 50 day EMA (42.82). To recap: Another strong stock that got shoved back in the selling to the key 200 day SMA (35.14). It held that level Friday and bounced on very strong, above average volume. SF formed a nice 12 month cup with handle base and broke out in September, making us some great money. It has dumped back to test in the market selling in some of the 'out with the bathwater' selling last week. Like the high volume as it tapped the 200 day and bounced. Looking to move in as it continues higher as this stock can fly when it gets its legs. Option spreads on this one are as wide as wide as Aunt Edna's butt. If the don't narrow when trade starts next week we will have to look at stock positions only on this one.
Volume: 527.904K Avg Volume: 386.72K
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=550K Target=$54.95 Stop=$42.08
POSITION: SF AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta, wide spread) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sf.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Good Investing!
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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