us stock market, stock watch

Begin Part 3 of 3

POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) CHS - Hard fall
2) WLP - On the brink of a new high
3) SONC - Test after the breach

CHS (Chico's Fas--$30.55; -2.46; optionable): Split 3:2 effective 1-22-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Gave us a nice run up after the split, but now with retail woes CHS has dropped back through stops and is set to be flipped back to the downside. Today CHS sold hard through the 50 day MVA (32.30), with volume on the selling up to 832,900 (average 594,500). We will see if there is a relief bounce and test toward the 50 day, but we can look for a continued drop for puts down to a target of 26. There is some possible support at 28 from December-January double tops, with the 200 day MVA down at 24.64.
PLAY: After a bit of a bounce back toward 31-32, a drop through 30.25 on continued strong volume, with May $35 puts to buy (CHS QG - 50 open interest).

WLP (Wellpoint Health--$64.86; +1.06; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 3-18-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlp.html
STATUS: WLP has taken a nice jump from its 50 day MVA (61.65), moving again today after having rested for a couple of sessions. The move took WLP back to the brink of a new high, reaching up to an intraday high of 65.27 (February all-time high at 65.63). It has formed a cup that has a early March 'leak' that took it close to 57, and we could see the formation of a handle here to set up a solid breakout.
PLAY: From here or after a low volume dip back that holds 64, 65.37 on minimum volume of 1 million (average 654,600; today 1.15 million), with stock and/or July $62.50 calls to buy (WLP GZ).

SONC (Sonic--$25.70; +0.70; optionable): Split 3:2 on 3-11-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: SONC could not make it back up to its high on the most recent move, and that led to a strong drop back through the 50 day MVA (25.91). After the high-volume selling we saw Monday (hitting 24.57 at its low), SONC gave the anticipated relief bounce today, reaching back up but not able to hold a move over the 50 day as volume dropped way back to 389,600 (average 294,000). Looking for this test to fail, and for SONC to drop back to a target of 23 (200 day MVA at 22.33).
PLAY: On a drop through 25, May $30 puts to buy (ZSQ QF - low open interest).

WATCHLISTS:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: AHC (4/24), AROW, BER, BMS, BRL, CTAS, DRYR, ESI (4/18), GTK, LE, LSTR, MMM (4/22), MRBK, MUR, PHM, RNR, SLM, STU, and XL.

SUI ($39.13; +0.08): Working on a new date. SUI has come all the way back to test its early-March breakout from a flat base, and is on "thick ice" support of both the former pattern highs and the 50 day MVA (39.04). It looks ready to spring, showing a doji today on a huge volume spike (415,700; average 52.800). This REIT does not move with a lot of speed, so we are looking at adding to stock positions with a bounce over 39.40.

PNRA ($61.90; -0.40): Working on a date. Still in a nice pattern, dipping in its handle on low volume. Today it showed a doji on continued low volume, holding the 18 day MVA (61.24). The breakout is 66.23 on volume of 570,000. The aggressive play is over 65 on volume of 450,000. The positions are stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (UPA HL).

ACDO ($57.80; +0.44): Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 4-29-02. A strong move to a new high, but has slowed a bit, testing back toward the 10 day (55.36) at its intraday lows. Still a buy up to 59 with increased volume (733,900 today; average 745,300). We can add on to stock positions on the move; for new positions, August $50 calls to buy (DZU HJ - under 100 open interest).

KRB ($37.90; -0.19): Forecast to announce a split on 4-11-02 in conjunction with earnings. The company will not release the date for earnings, but based upon our research this should be the date. Has dipped to the lower range of its consolidation, but if it can hold it will still be looking good. The buy point is 39.55 on increased volume of 4 million, with stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (KRB FG).

FITB ($67.01; +0.11): Forecast to announce a split on 4-16-02 before the market in conjunction with earnings. Has pulled back below the 18 day MVA (67.24) after receiving a couple of downgrades, so we will see if it can make a move back over that former support. Not a severe drop, so if it can hold on well we could get a solid move in time.

ATK ($104.88; -1.62): Forecast to announce a split on 5-9-02 before the open with earnings. Made an impressive breakout move, and today hit 109.28 at its high before pulling back on increased, continued strong volume (646,100; average 310,200). Could get a test back from here, but will look for it to hold 100.

CPS ($56.53; -1.27): Forecast to announce a split on 4-18-02 in conjunction with earnings. Dropped back out of its little consolidation, but volume was below average and it is still holding the 18 day and recent pattern highs (56). We will see if it can hold 56 and set up for a move. A bit of consolidation on that level could be solid and set up new positions.

PDCO ($43.56; +0.65): Researching a date. Holding up after its breakout run, bouncing up after testing back Monday. Today PDCO pulled back off of its intraday high of 44.35 (breakout high 44.67). Could need a few sessions to settle down for a move.

RUS ($32.00; +0.05): Forecast for its annual shareholder meeting on 4-24-02 at
2:00 ET. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split. Pulled back to the 18 day MVA (31.95), but is holding with two consecutive dojis, today on strong volume (40,300; average 23,000). The aggressive can look at positions with stock on move over 32.10 with continued strong volume.

EASI ($49.00; +0.90): Forecast to announce a split 5-27-02 before the open with earnings. Strong move Monday, but showed an immediate topping sign with a doji on big volume today (659,400; average 208,600). Looking for a hold of 47 for a continuation of the trend up.

STI ($66.87; +0.53): Forecast to announce a split on 4-15-02 in conjunction with earnings or on 4-16-02 in conjunction with annual shareholder meeting to be held at 9:30 a.m. ET. STI is in the handle to a large double bottom dating back to August 2001 (high 72.35). Today it made it back over the 18 day (66.37). The breakout is 68.57 on volume of 1.1 million. Stock and/or July $65 calls to buy (STI GM - July $65).

KRI ($67.80; -1.12): Forecast to announce a split on 4-24-02 before the open. Cannot make the solid breakout but continues to hold the 18 day MVA (67.72) as it trends up. Looking for it to hold and set up a buy.

PRE SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching DHI, DRI, THQI, TOL and MKC (the latter looking like a pullback).

NDN ($37.94; +0.19): Splits 4:3 effective 4-4-02. Setting up a good pattern as it goes into the split. We will see if it can form a nice handle to its double bottom, and if it can hold up through the split we will then watch for the breakout.

AMAT ($54.03; -1.49): Splits 2:1 on or about 4-17-02. Gapped back, having a tough day with the Nasdaq. Still, AMAT is one that has shown strength, and with short-term positions we will see if it can hold up, with key support on its recent trend run at the 18 day MVA (51.71), bringing trailing stops up below that level.

DCOM ($30.91; +0.91): Splits 3:2 effective 4-25-02. Bounced back up from the 50 day (29.64), with volume very low at 32,400 (average 69,200). Still targeting 34.

WTNY ($48.45; -0.45): Splits 3:2 effective 4-10-02. Has tumbled back, today setting off a trailing stop alert. The 50 day is below at 47.59).

DF ($75.77; -0.16): Splits 2:1 effective 4-24-02. Has made a nice pre-split run, and after its last bounce has shown three consecutive dojis. We will see if we get a dip to the 10 day (74.59), and can look at new or additional positions on a move back up.

PMI ($77.80; +1.37): Splits 2:1 on a date TBA (shareholder approval sought at 5-16-02 meeting). Continues to show power, today blasting up on huge volume (728,200; average 275,700). Could get some more out of this move after today's strength, and the target on the bounce is 85.

WRI ($52.12; +0.22): Splits 3:2 effective 4-16-02. Has made a decent bounce, but could be due for a test of support (10 day MVA at 51.34) after pulling off of its high of 52.55 today.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include APPB, AZO, BBBY, DHR, EDS, ETH, GNSS, IGT, JCI, LLL, MI, PII, RARE, RYL, STJ, THC and YUM.

BBY ($75.01; -4.47): Was in a nice consolidation, but a conservative outlook took it down to the 50 day. It will need some time to set up again.

GOSHA ($42.61; +0.11): Still flirting with the high, but not showing the power to get over it yet. It tested the 18 day (40.98) at its low again today, closing with a doji. The buy point is 43.20 on volume of 70,000, with stock.

INVN ($40.66; -0.13): Is holding the 50 day MVA (39.47), and we are watching for that to continue after it suffered a bit after the news of the issuance of an additional public offering. With strong stocks we often see a dip on the news, but if they can hold on, they can make a strong recovery.

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching ACS, BSG, CHBS, GILD, ICUI

CHBS ($30.48; -1.14): Tough day in retail, and now CHBS is back on its 50 day MVA (30.25). Has been a strong stock, so we will see if it can hold on and show something.

JEC ($35.68; -0.70): Split 2:1 on April 2. In a cup with handle pattern. The handle is showing more volatility than we would like, but today it gapped back and held the 10 day MVA with a doji. The breakout is 36.73 on volume of 300,000, with stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (JEC GZ - no open interest).

MGAM ($31.85; -3.13): Split 3:2 on February 12. Suffered today, dropping back through the support of the 18 day MVA (33.28). The 50 day is below at 30.19.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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