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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/30/2008
TJX (TJ Max--$26.70; +0.11; optionable): Discount department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
EARNINGS: 11-11-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice surge Tuesday and Wednesday on some good volume, then came back to flat Thursday after gapping higher through the 18 day EMA (26.60). It looks as if it can form a handle over the next few sessions, setting up a breakout from its short 6 week base. It has rallied up to the middle of the hump in the pattern and is pausing. Looking for a handle to form, but if it goes ahead on and breaks higher from here on volume we will look to move in with some positions as it makes the break.
Volume: 7.637M Avg Volume: 8.474M
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=12M Target=$31.87 Stop=$25.78
POSITION: TJX AE - Jan. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tjx.html
Trend Reversal Play:
Play Date: 10/30/2008
MU (Micron Technology--$4.43; +0.55; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-1-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. MU is back on the report as it showed a strong volume surge Wednesday and moved up just through the 50 day EMA (4.37) on the close for the first time since June. After a 6 week up and down trading range we are looking for this rotation to take MU up and out of this consolidation and reverse the recent trend while giving us a nice gain along the way.
Volume: 15.431M Avg Volume: 22.952M
BUY POINT: $4.57 Volume=30M Target=$7.94 Stop=$4.25
POSITION: MU AH - Jan. $4.00 (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mu.html
Index Play: New buy point on current position
Play Date: 10/30/2008
DDM (DJ30 Ultra ETF--$36.50; +1.81; optionable)
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. DDM looks to be forming something of a handle to its 4 week pattern, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the low and the 18 day EMA on the high. It has already made us money on the initial run off the low and now after it sets up a handle here we are looking to move in as it breaks higher to ride DDM upside with more positions as DJ30 tries a run to 10,000.
Volume: 14.688M Avg Volume: 7.378M
BUY POINT: $37.32 Volume=15M Target=$46.25 Stop=$34.71
POSITION: HXD LK - Dec. $37c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ddm.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Making that break higher
AFAM: Researching date. Surging
AMED: Researching date. Surging higher. On a test of this move we will look for an entry point.
CELG: Forecast January 2009. Good earnings report and rallying nicely through the 200 day SMA after those results.
USNA: Nothing announced with earnings, but like this pattern it is showing.
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/29/2008
CMC (Commercial Metals--$10.59; -0.74; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmc.html
EARNINGS: 10-30-01 before the open
STATUS: Double bottom. Tested back after the good surge Wednesday, holding the 10 day EMA (10.32) on the close. Still set well to make the break higher from this short double bottom. To recap: Nice gain on nice volume Wednesday as CMC rallied up past the hump in its 4 week double bottom, clearing the 18 day EMA (11.22) on the close, holding it despite the selling in the market late in the session. Very solid base has set up and looking for earnings to help push CMC higher. If it gaps up we look for a test; we may not get the entry Thursday but we want to be ready if it gives us an intraday test that gives us an opening to pick up some positions. Short but very solid base at the bottom of the 4 month trend lower.
Volume: 4.397M Avg Volume: 2.853M
BUY POINT: $11.48 Volume=3.5M Target=$16.45 Stop=$10.57
POSITION: CMC AB - Jan. $10c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmc.html
Play Date: 10/28/2008
HBAN (Huntington Bancshares--$10.00; -0.07; optionable): Regional banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hban.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-16-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Second session moving laterally on low, below average volume as HBAN consolidates the strong Monday and Tuesday moves, setting up with the overall market for the next break higher. Setting up very well. To recap: Nice when the earnings are out of the way and a stock is ready to move higher. HBAN reversed a 12 month downtrend in September, surging nicely. It then got caught in the October selling, falling back and forming something of a 6 week reverse head and shoulders base. Good bounce this week with a strong move Tuesday, breaking over some interim highs. A bit more volume would be nice, but HBAN is showing excellent action.
Volume: 5.872M Avg Volume: 9.799M
BUY POINT: $11.21 Volume=12M Target=$13.94 Stop=$10.43
POSITION: HQB AB - Jan. $10c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hban.html
Play Date: 10/28/2008
PPG (PPG Industries--$49.20; +1.33; optionable): Coatings, glass, an chemical products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-16-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Gapped higher and tried to move through the 18 day EMA (49.45) Thursday. Volume was very low so it could not punch through. If it works laterally here and then breaks through the 18 day EMA that is good action as that forms a handle and is a better launching point for PPG to run higher. To recap: Good shot of volume Tuesday as PPG jumped off the second bottom in a three week base formed after that late September to early October plunge. Looking for a rally up to the July low near 55 but it has room on up to 57.50 at least. After that it may run into some trouble but we will ride it for what it gives us.
Volume: 977.884K Avg Volume: 1.762M
BUY POINT: $48.21 Volume=2.3M Target=$54.88 Stop=$44.84
POSITION: PPG AI - Jan. $45c (77 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppg.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAY:
Play Date: 10/18/2008
ALK (Alaska Air--$23.80; +2.19; optionable): Regional airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-23-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Good surge Thursday though volume did not go with it as ALK bumped up against the highs in its 8 week base formed at the tail end of a larger 9 month pattern. Money flow continues to fly higher ahead of price. Just want to see some volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 725.059K Avg Volume: 1.062M
BUY POINT: $24.15 Volume=1.6M Target=$28.85 Stop=$22.46
POSITION: ALK AX - Jan. $22.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/alk.html
Play Date: 10/29/2008
GOOG (Google--$359.69; +1.69; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-16-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. GOOG jumped higher Thursday but then came back to close just over the 10 day EMA (356.50). Still set up well to move higher and as it makes another break after the market consolidates we will look to add positions. To recap: GOOG is showing some interesting action the past three weeks following a 6 month downtrend. It made a higher low last week, holding the early October closing low, showing some solid above average volume Tuesday as it bounded higher. It hit the 18 day EMA (363.31) and moved through Tuesday, but then slipped Wednesday to close at the 10 day EMA. Like this double bottom with the higher low with some rising volume along the way. Just waiting for GOOG to make the next break higher. Very interesting.
Volume: 7.975M Avg Volume: 5.999M
BUY POINT: $364.11 Volume=9M Target=$399.75 Stop=$351.85
POSITION: GGD LL - Dec. $360c (53 delta) or GGD AN - Jan. $370c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/goog.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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