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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/03/2008
AGU (Agrium--$38.00; +0.02; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: 11-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Came to life off of last week's low that took AGU to a new low for the year, bouncing Wednesday and Thursday on very strong, above average volume. It coasted in on lower volume Friday, and did the same Monday on even lower trade, holding the 18 day EMA (38.08) as it moves laterally. Nice tight lateral move after the bounce higher and ready to make the break higher off of this test. Very nice.
Volume: 6.277M Avg Volume: 6.946M
BUY POINT: $40.12 Volume=10M Target=$49.95 Stop=$37.31
POSITION: AGU AH - Jan. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agu.html
Play Date: 11/03/2008
POT (Potash--$84.96; -0.30; optionable): Fertilizer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pot.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-23-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Similar to AGU, POT is working laterally at the 18 day EMA (85.05) following a strong rush higher Wednesday and Thursday last week on strong volume. Money flow has turned around and is leading higher. Looking for a more definitive break over the 18 day EMA on a resumption of that volume. That is when we move in.
Volume: 15.407M Avg Volume: 17.86M
BUY POINT: $86.31 Volume=25M Target=$114.95 Stop=$81.22
POSITION: PYP AQ - Jan. $85c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pot.html
Play Date: 11/03/2008
RIO (Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce--$13.38; +0.26; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rio.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-23-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. RIO has set up its own short double bottom with handle at the bottom of the 6 month selloff that cut RIO by two-thirds. It bounced last week on strong volume off of the second low, making it up to . . . the 18 day EMA (13.18), a familiar pattern among the recent leaders. Sliding laterally along that level and looking for the upside break to move in and ride a run up toward the 50 day EMA (17.45) for a 25%ish gain.
Volume: 31.396M Avg Volume: 46.655M
BUY POINT: $13.58 Volume=54M Target=$17.15 Stop=$12.63
POSITION: RXO AV - Jan. $12.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rio.html
Play Date: 11/03/2008
ZION (Zions Bancorp--$41.01; +3.22; optionable): Regional banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zion.html
EARNINGS: 1-22-08
STATUS: Cup. Hard to classifying this one, but after a 1.5 year selloff ZION bottomed over the summer, rallied, and is now working on its second base off of the low. Friday ZION broke over the 200 day SMA (39.62) Monday on rising though still below average volume. This is a ragged 6 month base, kind of a double bottom/cup cross, but whatever you call it the pattern is nice and as with other regional banks money flow is surging out ahead of the price move. Looking for volume to continue to pick up as ZION makes the run higher over this key resistance level and on toward the September surge peak at 56. Our initial target is not that ambitious, but we will gladly let it run if it is strong at that point.
Volume: 3.323M Avg Volume: 4.692M
BUY POINT: $41.32 Volume=6.5M Target=$49.95 Stop=$38.43
POSITION: ZNQ AH - Jan. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/zion.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/03/2008
AMX (America Movil--$31.56; +0.62; optionable): Wireless communication services in Latin America
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-28-08
STATUS: Put. AMX is in a continuing downtrend, bouncing up to the 18 day EMA (32.02) resistance over the past week. It was trying to base from April to August, but then cascaded lower in October. It is making a routine bounce to the 18 day EMA in its downtrend, and looking for AMX to resume the move lower on some rising volume to give us the indication that AMX is turning back down. A move through the 10 day EMA (30.27) is our entry point. A move to the target lands a 70%ish gain.
Volume: 6.12M Avg Volume: 9.074M
BUY POINT: $30.17 Volume=10M Target=$25.05 Stop=$32.11
POSITION: AMZ XF - Dec. $30p (-35 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Good Investing!
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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