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yahoo stock, trend trading stock
Begin Part 2 of 2
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1784.35.
Resistance: 1800. Then a jumble of trouble at 1850 with the simple 50 day MVA (1845.53). Then 1875, the bottom of the November consolidation and the 200 day MVA (1874.93). The top of the November consolidation at 1934 to 1941. After that is 1980 (the December gap up point) and some minor resistance at 2000. Then the January top at 2098.88.
Support: 1775, the October high, is trying to hold. Then the early November gap up at 1768 and 1745, where it launched from on that gap. After that it is 1700.
S&P 500: Closed at 1125.40.
Resistance: The 200 day MVA (1139.65) has tire tracks all over it, but the further away the index gets, the more significant that level becomes at blocking the recovery. There is some resistance at 1150 as well. After that the December high (1173.62) and the January high (1176.97) are the real key. Those points also mark roughly the lows of summer 2001 consolidation that runs up to 1240. Before that point there is some resistance at 1183 from March 2000.
Support: The simple 50 day MVA (1127.25) and then 1125 (former price consolidations and the 'hump' in the brief November double bottom) are trying to hold. 1100 has acted as support as well. 1075 marks the bottom of the February double bottom pattern.
Dow: Closed at 10,198.29.
Resistance: The January high at 10,300 is now a level to clear along with 10,400, the barrier to the upper half of the March trading range. The top of the June, July, and August 2001 trading range at 10,600 (10,679 intraday high) marks the top half of the March trading range. 10,800 represents some resistance. That is followed by resistance at 11,000 on its way to the May 2001 high at 11,345.72.
Support: The simple 50 day MVA (10,141.43) held on the low today. Then 10,000 followed up by the 200 day MVA (9970.45).
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
4-1-02
ISM Index, March (10:00): 55.6 actual versus 54. expected and 54.7 prior.
Construction Spending, February (10:00): 1.1% actual versus 0.5% expected and 0.8% prior (revised down from +1.5%).
4-2-02
Factory Orders, February (10:00): -0.1% actual versus 1.0% expected (raised from +0.5%) and 1.1% prior (revised from 1.2%).
Auto Sales, March (8:30): 5.6M versus 5.6M prior.
Truck Sales, March (8:30): 7.5M versus 7.6M prior.
4-3-02
ISM Services, March (10:00): 57.3 actual versus 57.0 expected and 58.7 prior.
4-4-02
Initial Claims, 3/30 (8:30): 394K versus 394K prior
4-5-02
Nonform payrolls, March (8:30): 23K versus 66K prior.
Unemployment Rate, March (8:30): 5.6% versus 5.5% prior.
Hourly earnings, March (8:30): 0.2% versus 0.1% prior.
Average Workweek, March (8:30): 34.2 versus 34.1 prior.
Consumer Credit, February (3:00): $8.5B versus $12.8B prior.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Stocks from Tuesday's report:
TEX: Another tight doji that tested the 18 day MVA again. Volume backed off to below average.
UPL: Made the move and then reversed as oil stocks fell despite continued Middle East uncertainty. Hate this and won't let it fall below 7.75.
CPTS: Fell deeper in the handle, down to the 50 day MVA (20.38). Getting a bit deep in the handle.
SIB: Making the move today on that above we were looking for!
Continued Plays:
RKY: You would think we would turn to drink given the turmoil, but beverages are tanking on high volume. Closed at the 18 day MVA (64.19), giving us no warning. Will see if it can bounce before 63.
OMX: Rallying toward the breakout over 6 on strong volume (1.63 Million).
FDP: Continuing its nice run, rallying today on stronger volume in a down market. At a critical point, needing to clear this 20.10 level on even more volume.
PENN: Continuing the consolidation down to the 50 day MVA (33.09). Volume was very low, but then spiked to 697K today on a test of the 50 day and then a rally up with a hammer doji. Looking ready for a breakout. We want to see it over 35.50.
Best Plays:
1) RGCI: Good pullback, big buying.
2) ASX: Like the combination patterns.
3) OLGC: Pretty cup with handle.
New plays:
RGCI (Regent Communications--$7.97; +0.00; no options): Radio broadcasting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rgci.html
STATUS: Rallied to 9 in early 2001 and has since formed a 15-month cup and is now in a 2-week handle. The stock showed good price/volume action at the bottom of the cup and strong volume on the run up the right side. The handle is now forming on once again below average volume (78,200; avg. is 110K) as it has lower intraday lows just as it should. Today it tested close to the 18 day MVA (7.51) on the low (7.63) and rebounded on slightly rising volume. Money flow and buying are huge.
BUY POINT: 8.98 on volume of 165,000. Target: 10.75 (initial), then 11.95. Stop=8
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rgci.html
ASX (Advanced Semiconductor--$5.20; +0.05; no options): Chip equipment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asx.html
STATUS: A new issue in October 2000, ASX came out at a rough time. It rallied in early 2001 and then started the long, 13-month cup base it is now in. It tried to breakout in December 2001, but failed. It formed another small cup and now an ascending wedge. This is a combination pattern we like. Despite a lot of negative tech press, this stock has a lot of ongoing buying and money flow is huge. Relative strength is ready to breakout right now. Over the last three sessions the trading range has been very tight as it threw off a volume spike Tuesday and then showed below average volume today (102,600; avg. is 115K).
BUY POINT: 5.53 on volume of 145K+. Target: 6.75. Stop=5.05
POSITION: Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/asx.html
AGAM (Acres Gaming--$5.17; -0.04; no options): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agam.html
STATUS: Hit its high (7) in May 2001 and since formed two back-to-back double bottoms with modest breakouts. It has formed a nice 3-month cup with handle after those patterns, now in a week-long handle. Volume has been a little volatile in the handle, but today was again back well below average (50,100; avg. is 95,000). Money flow and buying are huge, and relative strength is ready for the breakout.
BUY POINT: 5.80 on volume of 145,000 or better. Target=7 (all-time high). Stop=5.25.
POSITION: Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/agam.html
Revisiting: SIB made the good move today.
OLGC (Orthologic--$5.56; +0.07): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/olgc.html
STATUS: Still looking really good in its 3-month cup with handle that has formed after a double bottom breakout brought it off the bottom of its correction back in 2001. It has tested back to the 10 day MVA (5.40) in the handle, and it bounced from that level Wednesday. Volume rose but was still well below average (59,700; avg. is 110K), just fine for the handle. Money flow is great, and buying has ramped up the past two weeks. Relative strength is breaking out ahead of price; bullish action.
BUY POINT: 5.77 on volume of 165,000+. Target=7.88. Stop=5.35.
POSITION: Stock
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK
FRX (80.51; -2.63): Man, heavy volume reversal after a nice move Tuesday. Volume jumped above average to 1.52 million (1.4 million average). It closed right below the 50 day MVA, holding at some support at 80. Drugs are under a lot of pressure due to BMY. FRX is a leader and we are not ready to bail on it. It has support at 77.50, the bottom of the trading range. If it breaks down we will look at selling some April 80 or 75 calls and buying them back on the bounce at 77.50.
MIK (35.80; -0.20). Not bad. Sold down again but rebounded intraday off of the 50 day MVA (35.05) on rising, average volume (451,000). We want to see volume rise on a sharp rebound from this level. Note also that it held above the January high at 35. Looking better on BBBY news after hours.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
BBBY ($31.59; +0.14): Held at that support at 31 again today, showing a doji on again above average volume (3.64 million). After hours it beat the street by 2 cents and was up to 33.10 on the news. No breakout, but it keeps it in its lateral trading range for now.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
NOC (113.49; -0.51): Making the pullback we were looking for on good lower volume (1.19 million). On the low it hit 112.50 and we are looking for 111 to buy back the calls.
SEBL (29.00; -2.82): At the 200 day MVA, rallying to recover to that level. This roughly marks the bottom of the stock's trading range, so we will look for it to hold and possibly rebound with an overall relief rally.
HDI (53.65; -1.15): Nice, tight consolidation suddenly tanked to the 50 day MVA today. Volume backed off (1.01 million), still remaining below average. Not a good development, but lighter volume was better.
BUD (51.44; -0.71): MO said it might sell Miller, and all beer stocks reacted to that today (RKY as well), selling on stronger volume right back to the 18 day MVA. BUD has made three runs off of its 18 day MVA since its breakout; usually stocks can get 4 to 5 such runs. This move was news driven, so we will see if it can hold here. We do not want a trip down to the 50 day MVA on our recent positions. Remember, if you are playing the trend up from the December breakout, a break below the 18 day MVA and the inability to regain that level the following session would be a sell signal. Longer term holders can let it ride to the 50 day MVA, but this is a rougher market.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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