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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/05/2008
AMED (Amedisys--$56.21; -1.86; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amed.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-28-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moved higher on earnings, finishing up the cup part of its 13 week base, sliding back the past few sessions to test on low volume, forming the handle shakeout where the last few sellers are removed. Nice hold on the Wednesday low at support at 55, bouncing back to cut the losses by the close. Solid pattern and after this handle consolidation finishes we are looking for a move higher on strong volume to give us the buy point.
Volume: 764.053K Avg Volume: 1.209M
BUY POINT: $56.77 Volume=1.5M Target=$64.95 Stop=$52.80
POSITION: CQW AK - Jan. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amed.html
Play Date: 11/05/2008
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$35.13; -0.05; optionable): Gas production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-3-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A familiar pattern among energy stocks, APC is moving laterally just over the 18 day EMA (34.27), forming a handle to its 4 week base formed at the bottom of the June to October selloff. Strong shot of volume Wednesday as it moves laterally. That is often a 'get ready' spike that appears ahead of a break higher from a good pattern. Certainly is set up to move and performed very well Wednesday in an overall weak market. Looking for a run up toward the 50 day EMA (42.04) where it gapped lower in early October.
Volume: 13.174M Avg Volume: 9.832M
BUY POINT: $35.66 Volume=13M Target=$41.72 Stop=$33.32
POSITION: APC AG - Jan. $35c (48 delta)&/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apc.html
Play Date: 11/05/2008
SF (Stifel Financial--$44.83; -1.12; optionable): Regional investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sf.html
Earnings: Announced 11-3-08
STATUS: Double bottom. SF reported results that saw a 63% profit increase. SF has made us money in the past as it can fly when it gets moving, and this short 4 week base formed using the 200 day SMA (36.28) as support gives it a good foundation to rally from. Nice surge Tuesday and a test Wednesday in the market weakness. Very solid and looking for the break higher once more.
Volume: 278.992K Avg Volume: 385.544K
BUY POINT: $46.11 Volume=575K Target=$54.95 Stop=$43.21
POSITION: SF AI - Jan. $45c (63 delta, wide spread) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sf.html
Play Date: 11/05/2008
WFT (Weatherford International--$15.74; -1.43; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wft.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-20-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Familiar story with the peak in June and then the selloff into October. It double bottomed in October, rallied to November, then moved laterally into this month, forming the handle. Held nicely at the 10 day EMA (15.51) on low volume Wednesday, basically ignoring the market selling. Well-poised to make the break higher and rally toward the 50 day EMA (21.98) to give is a very nice gain as WFT makes the best of this nice little pattern.
Volume: 12.623M Avg Volume: 14.262M
BUY POINT: $17.32 Volume=20M Target=$21.95 Stop=$16.31
POSITION: WFT AR - Jan. $17.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wft.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/05/2008
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$91.85; -4.36; optionable)
STATUS: Put. Preparing in the event this pullback to the 10 day EMA by DJ30 does not hold. If DJ30 sells on stronger volume Thursday the rebound off the October lows is likely over and we will be ready to play the downside. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 28.981M Avg Volume: 32.785M
BUY POINT: $91.44 Volume=35M Target=$85.50 Stop=$93.11
POSITION: DAV XN - Dec. $92p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Play Date: 11/05/2008
EEM (Emerging Markets ETF--$24.00; -3.50; optionable)
STATUS: Put. Rallied upside with the market and made us some good money on that move. After gapping higher Tuesday, EEM reversed Wednesday and broke below both the 18 and 10 day EMA (25.21, 24.63) on very strong volume. Looking for the emerging markets to continue to sell and for EEM to make us some money to the downside pretty much regardless of what the US market does. A move to the target lands a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 153.171M Avg Volume: 95.008M
BUY POINT: $23.77 Volume=120M Target=$20.11 Stop=$24.77
POSITION: MBY XX - Dec. $24p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eem.html
Play Date: 11/05/2008
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$96.19; -4.22; optionable)
STATUS: Put. As with DIA, this play is at the ready in the event SP500 breaks lower, continuing the selling from Wednesday as SPY fell back and held near the 10 day EMA. If the market continues selling we will look to move in. A run to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 390.404M Avg Volume: 376.284M
BUY POINT: $95.44 Volume=380M Target=$89.50 Stop=$96.88
POSITION: SWG XR - Dec. $96p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spy.html
Play Date: 11/05/2008
YUM (Yum! Brands--$28.33; -2.27; optionable): Leisure restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yum.html
EARNINGS: 2-3-08
STATUS: Put. YUM gapped lower in early October along with most stocks. It put in something of a double bottom with handle base and broke higher Tuesday on no volume. Thursday it turned back down, selling through the 10 and 18 day EMA (28.80, 28.92) on a strong shot of average volume. Money flow has turned down lower ahead of the price and we are looking to move in as YUM continues lower. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 4.924M Avg Volume: 4.359M
BUY POINT: $27.96 Volume=5M Target=$25.44 Stop=$29.04
POSITION: YUM XF - Dec. $30p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/yum.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Good Investing!
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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