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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/08/2008
APEI (American Public Education--$46.02; +2.01; optionable): Online post-secondary education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apei.html
EARNINGS: 11-12-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A new issue in November 2007, APEI formed its first base starting January 2008, broke out in August and on up to September. Then it was dumped with the market in October. It formed up a new base, a 5 week double bottom with handle, coming back to the 90 day SMA (43.90) last week. Showed a nice doji with tail Thursday and bounced Friday though the Friday move is hollow given the total lack of volume. Solid money flow is leading higher. Nice pattern and excellent fundamentals growth rates. It is a leader set up to break higher once this market test is over.
Volume: 81.862K Avg Volume: 211.818K
BUY POINT: $46.44 Volume=315K Target=$53.45 Stop=$43.78
POSITION: QAZ CI - Mar. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apei.html
Play Date: 11/08/2008
AXYS (Axsys Technologies--$64.64; +2.98; optionable): Technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-22-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Somewhat volatile pattern, but still well formed over the past three months. Used some old support at 50 on the lows of the base, rallied to end October, and this month is forming the handle on light volume, holding the 50 day EMA (61) on the handle lows. Bounced Friday, but unlike many stocks its volume moved higher. Still needs more trade but a very nice pattern making a higher low at a key level. That typically precedes the breakout move. Solid fundamental growth rates to go along with its pattern. AXYS is a solid leader in a nice base.
Volume: 132.249K Avg Volume: 168.748K
BUY POINT: $66.39 Volume=250K Target=$77.84 Stop=$63.39
POSITION: QHU BM - Feb. $65c (61 delta, 81 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/axys.html
Play Date: 11/08/2008
EMS (Emergency Medical Services--$34.14; +2.04; no options): Emergency medical services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ems.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Surged higher on its earnings report, clearing an 8 week base on strong volume. The market selling last week immediately brought it back to test at the 18 day EMA (31.87) and then blasting higher Friday on solid volume. This is part of a much larger 17 month base, and that just adds to the strength of the pattern. Another stock in a good pattern and sporting excellent fundamentals growth rates. Good breakout, good test, and now moving back up on solid trade.
Volume: 457.772K Avg Volume: 227.506K
BUY POINT: $34.55 Volume=450K Target=$40.89 Stop=$32.13
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ems.html
Play Date: 11/08/2008
RRC (Range Resources--$40.19; +2.73; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rrc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-22-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. RRC rallied sharply to end October, moving through the 50 day EMA (39.67). It fell back through that level Thursday but was back up Friday. RRC peaked in May and sold off in the current 5.5 month downtrend, but it bottomed and started to rebound in October. It has reached resistance and is testing, making a higher low at the 18 day and 50 day EMA. Strong money flow is well out in front of price and we are just looking for a break higher on some strong volume after a low volume October as it worked laterally and tested.
Volume: 2.524M Avg Volume: 4.505M
BUY POINT: $41.31 Volume=5.5M Target=$49.88 Stop=$38.42
POSITION: RRC AH - Jan. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rrc.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 11/08/2008
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$23.39; +0.86; optionable): Natural gas and exploration company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-30-08
STATUS: Test breakout. CHK broke higher from its 4 week consolidation at the bottom of its 4 month selloff, rallying Wednesday on strong, strong volume. Then it tested back to the 10 day EMA (22.33) on the Friday low. Very low volume accompanied that move. We are looking to use this pullback as an opportunity to pick up some more positions as CHK starts to rebound once more.
Volume: 20.772M Avg Volume: 29.844M
BUY POINT: $23.84 Volume=40M Target=$29.95 Stop=$22.28
POSITION: CHK AQ - Jan. $22.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chk.html
Continuing plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/06/2008
WCN (Waste Connections--$34.30; +0.82; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-21-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. More excellent action Friday, tapping at the 50 day EMA (33.49) on the low and rebounding to positive. No volume, but great price action and looking solid for the breakout. To recap: Tried the breakout in mid-September, but as soon as it cleared the August high it reversed and sold with the market into October, forming the first leg of the current 7 week double bottom. Just a bad time to breakout to a new high at the time. Now the market is trying to put in a bottom and WCN has used this time to build its own bottom and it came back to test the 50 day EMA Thursday, showing a nice hammer doji at that level. Great set up and poised to move higher, and just has to show us the breakout move.
Volume: 424.473K Avg Volume: 946.291K
BUY POINT: $34.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.77
POSITION: WCN AG - Jan. $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wcn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/05/2008
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$90.13; +3.00; optionable)
STATUS: Put. After getting blasted Wednesday and Thursday, DIA bounced Friday, coming back up to test toward the 10 day EMA (90.65). Weak volume on the bounce and though it was Friday and weaker trade can be expected, we are looking for more downside this week as DJ30 tests the prior lows again. On a break lower we will move in and play some downside toward the prior low to take advantage of the continuing volatility as the market tries to form this bottom.
Volume: 30.921M Avg Volume: 33.296M
BUY POINT: $89.91 Volume=35M Target=$83.55 Stop=$91.55
POSITION: DAV XL - Dec. $90p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Good Investing!
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