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Begin Part 2 of 2

This adds the remaining best plays.

TEAM TRADES

Today was one of those days similar to going to the dentist knowing you are going to get your teeth pulled. Even though the indexes were not selling off hard and were approaching the point for a relief bounce, the process was slow and still uncertain. Stocks continued to be ground up by the action. We were faced with that dilemma you don't want to face: stick to our rules and cut the losses or ride them out and hope the turnaround actually comes.

We had opened positions last week in anticipation of upside action this week given the decent price/volume action during the pullback. That upside action was not forthcoming. We had moved up stop points on many stocks given the action, and we also were employing trailing stops to lock in gains and prevent losses as well. Those did a good job protecting us earlier in the week, keeping some gains and getting us out flat or with very light losses. Today's action ground up more of our recent positions that did not have a chance to move much before the selling started. We had some more trailing stops protect us, but our recent plays ate us up.

The selling was slowing, but there was no buying coming in to fill the void. The patterns were shaping up as a possible bounce higher, but possible bears a definition close to 'hope' when it comes to the market. We spent a little time agonizing over it, looking for some bounces higher. Some did a bit, some did not, and the light upside response to the President's call for an end to Middle East violence reversed. We went ahead and pulled the trigger and moved on. We may get a reversal tomorrow; the closing patterns were doji reversals on higher volume. That is a sign of a relief bounce. We won't look back, however. We will continue to look for better action just as we were when we were stopped out of positions today. We took that money and put it into AHS, a health services new issue that made that new high we were looking for.

THE PLAYS:

Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.

Stocks from Wednesday's report:
RGCI: Tested the 18 day MVA on the low and reversed on high volume. Like high volume reversals.
ASX: Held steady on a surge in volume to above average levels. A semiconductor that could take off with a tech rally.
AGAM: Started the move toward a breakout on rising volume.
OLGC: Very tight doji on rising volume. Crouching for the breakout.

Continued Plays:
SBUX: Good jump today on stronger volume, and after hours reported earnings slightly below estimates. Recovered well, however.
GE: Put. Tested down to 36 Wednesday then recovered. Rose today on slightly higher, below average volume. For remaining positions we will close them on any weakness.
ACAT: Exploded off the 50 day MVA today, but volume was still below average.
CMX: Good recovery off of test of 18 day MVA as volume surged to slightly above average.
UCI: Looks to be ending the test of the 10 day MVA with a very tight doji on average volume.
SIMG: Tested the 18 day MVA in a lateral move the past week and today volume shot up to above average levels. Semiconductor, and they could be ready for a nice if quick bounce.
CHK: Energy stock that sold back hard Wednesday with the group, falling a bit more today on lower though still above average volume. If it makes it back up to the 8 level and volume continues to fall we will be ready to take the money off the table.
SYXI: Another semiconductor in a 4-week lateral consolidation on just no volume (28,700 today). Could breakout in a semiconductor move.

Best Plays:
1) JNC: A leader that can be a good long term hold on a strong breakout.
2) PG: Nice consolidation.
3) PKG: Trying for a new high.

New plays:

JNC (John Nuveen--$55.13; +0.99; no options): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnc.html
STATUS: A huge performer. In early 2001 JNC formed a 6-month cup with handle. It broke out and ran to its recent high near 55. Since that run is has undergone a necessary base over the last three months, forming a saucer. It is trying to form a handle off of the 50 day MVA (53.50), but it has been bouncing around quite a bit. Today it jumped off of 54 on much stronger volume (75,800; avg. is 73K). It is close to an all-time high (55.60). Money flow is good. The price/volume action in this base has been excellent with up weeks on rising volume blowing away down weeks on rising volume.
BUY POINT: 55.70 on volume of at least 110,000. Target=66 initial. This stock can run much further as a longer term hold. Stop=52.75.
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jnc.html

PG (Procter & Gamble--$89.98; +0.72; optionable): Household products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
STATUS: In a 3-week lateral consolidation on mostly below average volume, it gave us a big volume spike Tuesday on the up day, sold back on light volume Wednesday in the big stock selling, and then bounced today on once again rising volume (3.58 million; avg. is 3.5 million). Great money flow and relative strength is making the breakout. Big stocks tend to run toward 100 when they break 90.
BUY POINT: 90.70 on volume of 4.5 million or better. Target=100. Stop=87.
POSITION: While we can always take stock positions, given the price and the size of the move we are targeting, we are looking more at option positions with July 85c (PG GQ) or preferably October 85c to buy (PG JQ).

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pg.html

PKG (Packaging Corp--$20.16; +0.21; optionable): Packaging products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pkg.html
STATUS: Moved to an all-time high (20.57) in August 2001, but was caught in the downdraft heading into 9-11. Since then it has recovered in more or less a cup pattern with a handle the past month. The last three weeks it has cheated by moving higher and now slightly lower. Not the best handle action. The last two sessions, however, volume has jumped, shooting up today as it moved back over 20 (934,600; avg. is 322K). Relative strength is breaking out on the move as well.
BUY POINT: 20.67 on volume of 750K or more. Target=24.95. Stop=18.90.
POSITION: Stock and/or July 15c to buy (PKG GC; no open interests right now so less liquid).

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pkg.html

CR (Crane--$27.12; +0.26; no options): Conglomerate
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cr.html
STATUS: Formed a 2.5-month cup January to March. It broke out in early March, but without a handle it pulled back and has now formed a better handle the past week, making a series of lower intraday lows on below average volume. Today volume jumped up to average (192K) on a test of the 18 day MVA on the low (26.52) and reversal to close positive. Money flow has raced up on the move, and relative strength is getting ready to try a breakout as well.
BUY POINT: 27.46 on volume of 288,000. Target=33. Stop=25.53.
POSITION: Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cr.html

PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.

THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK

FRX (80.16; -0.35): FRX checked up today just below the 50 day MVA, showing a doji on below average volume (956,400; avg. is 1.4 million). This is a good point to hold as 80 has some support above the 77.50 bottom of the recent range. With no breakdown we did not sell any calls.

MIK (37.08; +1.28): The higher volume Wednesday off of the 50 day MVA was a good sign along with the BBBY earnings. A good 50 day MVA bounce, but we note that it was not huge volume on the move. Did what it had to do at this point, but not looking at new positions right now.

LLL (120.62; +2.93): Recovered well but volume backed off on the move to below average levels (686,600). It could be getting extended a bit on little volume. It is right at its high hit Tuesday when it sold off. It needs to clear this level on strong volume if it continues to move higher right away. Better would be a lateral consolidation.

UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL

SRCL (58.50; -1.50): Diving toward 55 once again as volume increases on a move below the 50 day MVA. Time to bail.

BBBY ($33.71; +2.12): Sparked a recovery in retail today and was the talk of retail analysts. Huge volume surge (6.06 million) as it cleared the 50 day MVA once again. The shot of life it needed to continue its 4-month flat base (32 to 34).

MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC

NOC (113.80; +0.31): Hmm. Stopped the fall abruptly, showing a rather tight doji on low volume (765,200). We were looking at 111 as the buy back point. On any weakness tomorrow we are going to buy them back to be safe. It may be forming a handle here to its 5-week cup.

HB (61.33; +0.43): A nice low volume pullback (52,500 today) the past week, HB started back up today though volume did not start with it. We are looking for volume to flow back in if it continues the move. If it cannot come in on another run to 62 we need to be careful.

BUD (52.37; +0.93): Made the move it had to make to hold the 18 day MVA, but the volume was low (2.01 million). The entire move the past three weeks has been on below average volume most of the way. Needs that volume on a further move up. If it does not, we need to be careful of a failure at 52.73, the recent high. On that move we can sell some April or May $50 calls on existing positions.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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