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trend trading stock, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/14/2008
CASY (Caseys General Stores--$29.50; +0.94; optionable): Midwest convenience stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/casy.html
EARNINGS: 12-4-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CASY is ready to breakout from a 10 week base that formed as the tail end to a larger 12 month cup with handle of sorts. The handle is the current reverse head and shoulders, so it is not your usual pattern but it is certainly solid. Volume jumped Friday as its sales are strong. The economy may be weak but consumers still like convenience. Could not hold the move Friday, but with the market action it was not bad. Looking for a breakout this week.
Volume: 1.46M Avg Volume: 569.935K
BUY POINT: $30.38 Volume=855K Target=$36.75 Stop=$28.25
POSITION: CQO BF - Feb. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/casy.html
Play Date: 11/14/2008
CEPH (Cephalon--$74.50; +1.25; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice surge on the earnings late in October, gapping out of its 9 week double bottom. It has come back to test this month, finding support at the rising 50 day EMA (71.90). Huge volume Friday as CEPH is slated to enter the SP500 index. The pattern is solid to support a breakout move. It has been in a three-year ascending base, and it is ready to make a run at breaking out from that base. Top flight earnings growth rates to go with the pattern.
Volume: 10.75M Avg Volume: 1.878M
BUY POINT: $75.21 Volume=1.6M Target=$86.95 Stop=$71.77
POSITION: CQE BO - Feb. $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ceph.html
Play Date: 11/14/2008
MYGN (Myriad Genetics--$66.13; -2.87; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mygn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-4-08
STATUS: Test breakout/50 day EMA. MYGN set up a 3 month base of sorts before breaking higher to start November. It tumbled into October but set up a double bottom. Gapped higher to start the month, surging on earnings. Did fine until Wednesday when it came back to test the 50 day EMA (63.14). Bounced nicely off that level Thursday on rising, above average volume, then tested back Friday. Broke to a 7 year high on this move and looking to step in as MYGN continues the breakout move after this test.
Volume: 2.073M Avg Volume: 1.281M
BUY POINT: $68.15 Volume=1.4M Target=$79.95 Stop=$67.11
POSITION: GSQ BN - Feb. $70c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mygn.html
Play Date: 11/14/2008
RRC (Range Resources--$40.62; +0.05; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rrc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-22-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. RRC rallied sharply to end October, moving through the 50 day EMA (39.64). It has since worked laterally, trading on both sides of the 50 day EMA. Thursday and Friday it showed a very solid volume climb as it rallied off a test of the lows in the range, bumping against the May/September/October down trendline. Looks ready to make the break higher. Want to see some volume on the move through that down trendline. Strong money flow is well out in front of price and we are just looking for a break higher on some strong volume after a low volume October as it worked laterally and tested.
Volume: 4.132M Avg Volume: 4.51M
BUY POINT: $41.31 Volume=5.5M Target=$49.88 Stop=$38.42
POSITION: RRC AH - Jan. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rrc.html
Play Date: 11/14/2008
SRCL (Stericycle--$58.01; -0.71; optionable): Waste Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-23-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Seeing this pattern quite a bit among the leaders that have decent bases, the 10 week or so double bottom with handle at what appears to be the end of a larger base. In this case a 9 month base. Rallied to end October on its earnings report, then slid lower and laterally this month to test, bouncing up and down around the 50 day EMA (56.20) and the 200 day SMA (55.72). Strong volume Thursday and Friday as SRCL surged higher, trying to add to the gain Friday. The selling hurt it, taking it modestly lower after another run higher. Money flow is going ballistic. SRCL is ready to break higher and lead the market out of the waste.
Volume: 1.332M Avg Volume: 786.126K
BUY POINT: $58.89 Volume=1M Target=$67.95 Stop=$56.08
POSITION: URL AK - Jan. $55c (66 delta) or URL BL - Feb. $60c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/srcl.html
Play Date: 11/15/2008
TS (Tenaris--$22.07; -1.41; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ts.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-6-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. TS didn't get any mileage out of its earnings announcement, but it didn't hurt it either. After peaking in late June TS tumbled lower in a downtrend into late October. After getting a 75% haircut it is trying to bottom, bouncing to end October and on into early November, then sliding laterally the past two weeks. It is setting up for a reversal and a run up toward the 50 day EMA (29.78). Volume has swelled the past three sessions. TS closed right at the 18 day EMA (22.18), a good perch for it to start that run. Looking good for a nice trade here.
Volume: 4.244M Avg Volume: 4.03M
BUY POINT: $22.88 Volume=6M Target=$29.45 Stop=$21.38
POSITION: TS CX - Mar. $22.50c (50 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ts.html
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
AFAM
CBST
CF
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Good Investing!
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