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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Some solid upside to take advantage of a run off of the Tuesday reversal.
Play Date: 11/18/2008
HOTT (Hot Topic--$7.40; +0.45; optionable): Teen apparel retail stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html
EARNINGS: 11-19-08 after the close
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume Tuesday as HOTT moved to the breakout point of its 11 week base. HOTT has suffered in a 4 year downtrend. It made a low in January and has worked in a ragged move higher since, putting together the current base, testing and consolidating the 2008 move during the market selling. That has set up the next break higher, and the upside volume has been very solid. Excellent money flow is leading the way higher. Very interesting. This is an earnings play, and in this market earnings have been a bane. HOTT has set up a very good pattern, however, and is showing a lot of very solid action. Aggressive no doubt; much depends upon guidance and conventional wisdom says in this environment it has to be down. So we are going to go the opposite way and move in as HOTT continues this move.
Volume: 1.3M Avg Volume: 802.621K
BUY POINT: $7.51 Volume=1.2M Target=$9.85 Stop=$6.98
POSITION: UHO BU - Feb. $7.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hott.html
Play Date: 11/18/2008
MOS (Mosaic Company--$31.37; -0.20; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mos.html
EARNINGS: 1-6-09
STATUS: Trend reversal. Peaked in June 2007, trended lower, then gapped down in late September and early October, making three downside gaps. That third gap exhausted the move lower, and for the last 6 weeks MOS is moving laterally, forming something of a shallow reverse head and shoulders, refusing to sell off with the rest of the market. Gathering no moss here and looking for a solid break higher on strong volume.
Volume: 9.264M Avg Volume: 13.332M
BUY POINT: $32.65 Volume=15M Target=$47.95 Stop=$30.36
POSITION: MOS AF - Jan. $30c (65 delta) or MOS CG - Mar. $345c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mos.html
Play Date: 11/18/2008
RAH (Ralcorp Holdings--$67.98; -0.01; optionable): Processed and packaged foods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rah.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-11-08
STATUS: Test breakout. RAH surged on its earnings, making a new closing high on the 2-day rally following the news. It immediately fell back last Friday, but it held the 50 day EMA (65), bouncing off that level Monday. Held steady Tuesday with a quick test to the 18 day EMA on the low (66.20). Nice quick test from a leader in a solid 13 week base. Excellent money flow is leading higher. After this hold of the breakout we are looking to move in and ride RAH as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 1.036M Avg Volume: 1.051M
BUY POINT: $69.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$79.95 Stop=$65.97
POSITION: RAH CN - Mar. $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rah.html
Play Date: 11/18/2008
SSO (ProShares SP500 Ultra ETF--$24.63; +0.18; optionable)
STATUS: Tracking the SP500 and thus the test of the Thursday low and rebound Tuesday. Lots of volume came in as SSO tested and reversed. Looking to pick up SSO as the market bounces off of this test, riding it to the 18 day EMA (28.66), further if it will.
Volume: 122.355M Avg Volume: 53.792M
BUY POINT: $25.04 Volume=90M Target=$28.52 Stop=$23.65
POSITION: SOJ CY - Mar. $25c (54 delta) or SOJ LW - Dec. $23c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sso.html
Play Date: 11/18/2008
XOM (Exxon--$76.33; +2.95; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xom.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-30-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. XOM double topped in April and May, and that triggered a 6 month slide. It really collapsed in the early October selling, but it recovered, moving back up to the down trendline and sliding laterally this month. It broke through the trendline on the Tuesday close, bumping into the 90 day SMA and closing right on that level. Good volume jump, moving above average. Looking for XOM to continue the move through the 90 day (76.29) to give us a buy as it breaks higher. The 200 day SMA is at 82.82, and that will give it some pause. If it stalls there we take some gain. If this is as strong a break as it is setting up to be, however, that 200 day won't stop it.
Volume: 57.795M Avg Volume: 44.882M
BUY POINT: $77.54 Volume=65M Target=$93.88 Stop=$73.38
POSITION: XOM AO - Jan. $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xom.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Good Investing!
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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