stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 3 of 3

CTAS (Cintas--$48.94; -0.42; optionable): Working on a new date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctas.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 1-18-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $54. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-25-00 at which time additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: CTAS has been making higher lows and lower highs since the beginning of 2001, forming a very large pennant. The stock is now battling to get over December-February highs that are at the level of the long-term down trendline. It is back in the range of its January consolidation, having battled back up from February lows near 43. Holding the 50 day MVA (48.28), tapping down again to that level Friday and on several recent sessions at the intraday lows. The pattern formed over the last few weeks is a pennant on low volume (steady again Friday at 701,300; average 972,000). Has shown some intraday volatility, so we are looking for a definitive move. Targeting 60.
BUY POINT: Over 51 on volume of 1.5 million. Stop: 48.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $45 calls to buy (NQQ HI).

CPS (Choicepoint--$59.05; +1.89; optionable): Business Services. Forecast to announce a split on 4-18-02 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm the date for the release, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cps.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 1-31-01 with a board meeting at a price of $53. Before that CPS announced a 2:1 split on 10-20-99 at a price of $63. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: CPS has taken a great bounce from its 50 day MVA (54.43, with its February-March consolidation levels), today charging to a new high on big volume (567,800; average 228,000). A nice recovery after having fallen from the consolidation it had formed over the last couple of weeks, and we are still riding current positions. We are not immediately looking for new positions after the size of this move, but with a rest here that holds 68 we will look at new options positions on a continued run, and will adjust the target from 62 out to 68.
BUY POINT: After holding 58 on a lower volume dip, a move over 59 on volume of 300,000 or better. Stop: 54.96 (7%).
POSITION: July $55 calls to buy (CPS GK).

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) ABM - A new play!
2) UOPX - Another new play!
3) AMAT - Another one that could move
4) DF - Nice consolidation

ABM (Abm Industries--$36.64; -0.36; optionable): Business services. Splits 2:1 effective 5-7-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abm.html
STATUS: ABM has made a very nice move up the right side of its cup pattern, which dates back to June-July highs at 38.20. ABM broke out of a handle in mid-March and hit a recent high of 37.84, pulling back into another handle from there. It has moved laterally the past week, dipping back today (after hitting an intraday high of 37.31) but holding over its 10 day MVA (36.37). Volume was above average (89,200; average 66,200), but relatively light compared with the volume on the recent moves up. Looking for another breakout, targeting 44.
PLAY: 37.41 on volume of 100,000, with stock. Stop: 35.50.

UOPX (Univ of Phoenix--$38.95; -0.25; optionable): Education. Announced a split today (with affiliated APOL), 4:3 effective 4-26-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Like APOL, looking to become a consistent splitter (UOPX split last year as well). The stock tried a breakout from a saucer in early March, but promptly fell back. However, UOPX caught support at the 50 day (36.67) and bounced, not quite making its March high (and all-time high) of 42.94. A potential double top, but the recent move up was quite strong, and the retreat the past week has been on light, decreasing volume, today down to 49,200 (average 165,300). Looking for UOPX to hold here at the 18 day MVA (38.63) and the former cup highs, and set up another strong move up. If it can take out the high, targeting 50.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 40, with stock June $35 calls to buy (UBY FG - 31 open interest). Stop: 38

AMAT (Applied Materials--$52.40; -1.70; optionable): Splits 2:1 on or about 4-17-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amat.html
STATUS: Gapped up Friday but pulled back with the market, but held the 18 day MVA (52.13) to close. Since its surprise split announcement, AMAT has continued to hold up as it trends along the 18 day, and it has been holding up better than many of its tech brethren, with a high relative strength line. With a reversal in the Nasdaq it could be one that makes a really good move. In a stronger market we will look for a push over the recent high 55.90 and a move up to 62.
PLAY: In a strong Nasdaq, a bounce over 54, with stock and/or May $50 calls to buy (ANQ EJ). Stop: 51.80. The aggressive can look at a move over 53 in a strong market, with the same positions. Stop: 51

DF (Dean Foods--$75.05; -0.47; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective 4-24-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/df.html
STATUS: DF has made a nice, steady trend up, breaking from a December-March cup with handle in the process. It has made a couple of surges from the short-term MVA's on the run, and now has pulled laterally and slightly back with five consecutive dojis and a bit of a looser doji Friday. It closed right over the 10 day MVA (74.95), from where DF made its last jump. Looking for another move from that level. Great relative strength. We were targeting 80, but on a strong move from here will adjst to 84.
PLAY: On a move over 76.65, June $70 calls to buy (DF FN).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS:
1) DIAN - Resting after the move
2) HB - Good consolidation

DIAN (Dianon Systems--$67.15; -0.70; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dian.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that DIAN has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-25-00 at which no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Rested today after Thursday's super move. Recently DIAN made a solid move back up from 55, and early this week had settled back a bit on light volume, holding support at the December high and short-term MVA's at 62.50. DIAN blasted up Thursday on huge volume (433,000; average 248,000), making a new high at 68.03, and Friday tested back to recent highs at 65 before moving back up to close with a doji. Decent action with lower volume of 346,900 (average 238,000). Looking for DIAN to hold on this rest and continue its breakout move. Targeting 76 on this breakout.
BUY POINT: Still a buy up to 68.13 on continued strong volume. Stop: 63.10-64.15.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (UID HM).

HB (Hillenbrand--$61.19; -0.14; optionable): Personal services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hb.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that HB has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: HB has formed a nice handle-type consolidation. It fell out of its February pennant pattern, but caught the 50 day MVA (59.17) and has made a good move up from that support, forming an 8-week saucer. It broke to a new high last week (taking out the left side high), but has pulled back into a handle, dipping on light, decreasing volume. It has caught support at the 10 day MVA (61), Friday showing a doji over that level on continued light volume (up to 74,100; average 151,600). Looking for a continued hold and a strong move over the recent high. Target on a strong move is 72.
BUY POINT: 62.33 on volume of 225,000. Stop: 58.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $60 calls to buy (HB FL).

POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: CHBS has made a great move, and we will see if it rests to consolidate its gains.
1) BSG - Still poised to bounce

BSG (Bisys Group--$34.85; +0.13; optionable): Business services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsg.html
STATUS: We have followed BSG as it has made a nice, steady trend up post-split. The stock broke from a reverse head & shoulders in December, and after a test back, broke back over the January high in early March and has trended nicely along the short-term MVA's. Following its last move up, BSG has made a nice retreat on low volume back to the 10 day MVA (34.73), Friday showing a 'shooting star' doji on that level. BSG hit the buy point, but volume was much lower than what we wanted (down to 209,900; average 482,200). Still looking to play a good bounce. Targeting 39.
PLAY: On a bounce over 35.25 with volume of 500,000 or better, June $32.50 calls to buy (BSG FF). We can also add to stock positions.

WATCHLISTS:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: AHC (4/24), AROW, BMS, BRL, ESI (4/18), LE, LSTR, MRBK, MUR, PHM, RNR, SLM, STI (4/15), STU, SUI and XL.

MMM ($121.93; +7.81): Forecast to announce a split on 4-22-02 with earnings. With the upbeat forecast, MMM blasted up with a huge gap, running up on volume 7.6 million (average 2.13 million). We will see how it handles the next level of resistance at 123.70. It could need a bit of time to digest the move, but the aggressive can look at a move over 123.70 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or July $115 calls to buy (MMM GC).

KRB ($37.75; +0.50): Forecast to announce a split on 4-11-02 in conjunction with earnings. The company will not release the date for earnings, but based upon our research this should be the date. Has dipped back out of its consolidation, bouncing back up but stymied for the moment at the 18 day MVA (37.76). Going toward the forecast we will see if it can set something up.

FITB ($66.75; +0.48): Forecast to announce a split on 4-16-02 before the market in conjunction with earnings. Like KRB, bounced up but had a doji just under the short-term MVA's. Not looking promising at the moment, but looking for something to set up.

GTK ($53.50; +1.94): Great move! After Thursday morning's earnings announcement, GTK blasted up, and Friday the surge continued, although it pulled back from 54.60 to close. Looking for GTK to rest here a bit, and then we will watch for a run at the high of 55.24. Target for current positions is 60.

PNRA ($64.45; +1.75): Working on a date. Continued pushing upward Friday, moving back up in the handle to its February-March cup. Volume has been low on this move, so we will see if it can move on its handle high of 66.13, with some volume behind it.

ACDO ($57.85; -0.44): Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 4-29-02 before the open. After the breakout to a new high ACDO has slowed a bit, and today showed a third consecutive doji as it moves laterally. We will see if ACDO tests back toward 56, or if it can continue from here up toward the target of 63.44.

ATK ($105.59; -0.96): Forecast to announce a split on 5-9-02 before the open with earnings. Made an impressive breakout move, and is holding up, moving laterally on light volume the last few of sessions. Holding positions, and on a strong move from here we will adjust the target from 110 to 115.

EXPD ($59.65; +0.43): Holding the 50 day (58.18), but not generating much strength on the bounce. We are looking for EXPD to make a move and run toward the breakout from the reverse head & shoulders. The breakout is over 61.50 on volume of 550,000, with stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (URP HK - low open interest).

IFIN ($73.28; +1.83): Looking at an announcement on 4-16 with earnings or with the 4-23 shareholder meeting. IFIN had been in a nice consolidation, but fell back this week and is struggling to hold the 50 day MVA (72.38). It rebounded back over that level Friday, so we will see if it can hold and set something up as we drive toward the forecast.

MGA ($73.00; +0.49): Forecast to announce a split 5-2-02 with earnings or on 5-9-02 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. MGA continues in its lateral range, holding the 18 day MVA (72.31). Not much of a pattern here, but if it can hold, still looking at a breakout at 74.60 on volume of 400,000, with stock and/or August $70 calls to buy (MGA HN).

PDCO ($46.03; +0.11): Researching a date. Continues up after its nice breakout from its four month lateral range. Today it gapped up slightly but dipped back to close, moving on continued strong volume (PDCO got a big infusion of volume on the announcement of an acquisition). The target was 48, but it looks like a drop is imminent here. We will look for it to hold the 45 range.

KRI ($69.25; +1.55): Forecast to announce a split on 4-24-02 with earnings. Getting a bit wild and loose here. It failed on a breakout from the pennant, and now is bouncing around between 67 and 70. Today it bounced up but volume remained below average. The aggressive can play a move over 69.69 on volume of 500,000, with stock and/or July $65 calls to buy (KRI GM - 47 open interest).

RUS ($32.00; -0.05): Forecast for its annual shareholder meeting on 4-24-02 at
2:00 ET. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split. Pulled back to the 18 day MVA (31.97), but is holding with five consecutive dojis. The aggressive can look at positions with stock on move over 32.20 with continued strong volume.

PRE SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching ADSK, DCOM, DHI, DRI, THQI, and WTNY.

MKC ($50.90; -0.35): Splits 2:1 effective 4-9-02. MKC has made a nice run, early this week hitting very close to the target of 52. We will see after its little pullback to the 10 day (38.71) if it has one more move in it, but with the split Tuesday we are looking at taking profits.

PMI ($77.23; +0.48): Splits 2:1 on a date TBA (shareholder approval sought at 5-16-02 meeting). After its powerful move Tuesday and subsequent test of the 10 day (75.70), PMI gapped up Friday but pulled all the way back from 79.50 for a doji. Volume was strong at 611,900 (average 275,000), so the pattern spells a possible pullback, and we will look for that to hold 75-76 and see if it sets up again. Target on the continued move is 85.

WRI ($53.27; +0.52): Splits 3:2 effective 4-16-02. Reached up to 53.60 today but pulled back to close, and with the high volume (103,400; average 75,300), the pattern indicates a pullback. The 10 day MVA is back at 52.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include APPB, AZO, BBY, BBBY, DHR, ETH, GNSS, INVN, JCI, LLL, MI, PII, RARE, RYL, STJ and YUM.

GOSHA ($47.26; +0.98): Nice breakout this week! GOSHA continued up Friday for the third consecutive session, but pulled back to close off of its intraday high of 48.51, which was flirting with the target of 49. Looks like it needs to rest here, and we will watch for it to hold the 46 range to set up the next phase of its move.

TGH ($74.44; +1.00): Broke from the ascending wedge Friday, but volume was well below what we were looking for, coming in at 142,300 (average 202,000; looking for 275,000). Weak and we will see if it can hold 74 and get some more volume behind it on a move up. If we can get a strong run, targeting 85, watching the high of 81.50 on the way.

TGIC ($42.81; +0.05): Not doing much now, bouncing up a bit today but there was no volume behind it. Since its breakout from a cup with handle, it has been moving in a lateral range, and we are looking for the breakout over 43.53 on volume of 80,000, with stock.

THC ($68.06; +0.68): Has made a great run up from 57 over the past month, making a new high last week and testing the move Thursday. Volume was light Friday as it moved back up toward its high (68.60), but we are looking for THC to hold here and consolidate its gains to set up the next move.

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching ACS, ICUI, JEC and MGAM

CHBS ($35.96; +1.56): Great move to end the week! On solid sales news and an upgrade Thursday, CHBS reversed after having given up the 50 day MVA (30.62), running back up the last two sessions on huge volume. CHBS closed at a new high Friday, pulling back from an intraday high of 36.64. We are riding positions toward a target of 41, and from here we will look at new positions after the stock consolidates a bit to digest its gains.

CHS ($33.04; +0.22): Were looking for a put, but after the strong bounce Wednesday, CHS has made its way back over the 50 day MVA (32.31). It turned back at the 18 day (33.40), showing a loose doji Friday, so we will see if it can hold the 50 day, shelving the put play for the moment until it shows a strong breakdown.

SONC ($26.57; +0.39): Like CHS, showed strength on a move back over the 50 day (25.94). Friday volume picked up again (547,900; average 308,400) on a continued move up, so we will see what it does from here.

WLP ($66.02; +1.11): Split 2:1 effective 3-18-02. WLP has taken a nice jump from its 50 day MVA (62.04), and after slowing a bit at its high, pushed up again Friday to establish a new high. Volume was steady at 708,000 (average 674,000). We were looking for the stock to form a handle here, but it had other ideas today, so we are riding positions toward our target of 70.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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