|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
While the market makes this rebound attempt we are looking at some upside plays on stocks in very good technical patterns. We will see how strong this bounce is next week and take some positions on these stocks if the strength is there. If the move sputters after moving up to resistance we focus on some downside
Upside:
Play Date: 11/22/2008
ASEI (American Science & Engineering--$69.18; +1.43; optionable): X-ray and other homeland security products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asei.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-10-08
STATUS: Breakout test. ASEI formed a nice 7 week cup with handle from late September to early October. Blasted higher after earnings, clearing the base. Last week it fell back to test, tapping toward the 18 day EMA (65.97) on the Friday low and then bouncing positive on strong volume. Nice strong breakout, nice easy test. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Very solid.
Volume: 205.022K Avg Volume: 131.262K
BUY POINT: $69.31 Volume=200K Target=$79.45 Stop=$65.89
POSITION: KBU AM - Jan. $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asei.html
Play Date: 11/22/2008
AXYS (Axsys Technologies--$61.83; +2.66; optionable): Optics for defense, homeland security, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-22-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. AXYS is testing the 200 day SMA (57.29), making a higher low in a 4 month base forming after it peaked in August. Held this key support and is working on the new base with this reverse head and shoulders at what looks to be the bottom. Money flow is strong and jumping thanks to the buying to end the week. May stumble around a bit more in this base after the late week volume fades some, but just going to be patient and let AXYS complete the pattern and show the breakout.
Volume: 1.207M Avg Volume: 196.135K
BUY POINT: $62.68 Volume=300K Target=$74.88 Stop=$58.77
POSITION: QHU BL - Feb. $60c (62 delta, wide sprd) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/axys.html
Play Date: 11/22/2008
XOM (Exxon--$75.81; +7.30; optionable): Major integrated oil
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xom.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-30-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Took XOM off after the Thursday tank on volume, but Friday it was right back up, bumping the 90 day SMA (76.01) that has been keeping XOM in its trend. Money flow has jacked up well ahead of the price and with this quick recovery XOM looks ready to breakout from its 7 month downtrend. Very solid pattern with most of the volume of late coming in on the upside.
Volume: 84.56M Avg Volume: 47.122M
BUY POINT: $76.12 Volume=55M Target=$93.88 Stop=$72.88
POSITION: XOM AO - Jan. $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xom.html
New buy point on current plays:
Play Date: 11/22/2008
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$24.83; +2.91; optionable): Corn and other food products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 11-4-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Got a bit dicey Wednesday with a tank back down to the 50 day EMA (22.56). Doji Thursday and then a rebound Friday. Broke from a 6.5 month downtrend in late October, rallied, and has tested. Looking to move in with more positions as ADM continues higher.
Volume: 12.228M Avg Volume: 9.902M
BUY POINT: $25.12 Volume=1.2M Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.36
POSITION: ADM CE - Mar. $25c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adm.html
Play Date: 11/22/2008
QCOR (Questcor Pharma--$8.21; +0.43; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcor.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-30-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. QCOR broke higher after earnings, clearing a 4 week ascending pattern that formed after the September breakout from a large 10 month cup with handle base. Rallied higher after the breakout and in the November selling it tested that move, coming back to the 50 day EMA (7.47) Thursday and Friday, reversing for a gain Friday on strong volume. Nice test of the key support and big rebound. Solid money flow. Ready to move into more positions as QCOR continues higher after this test of the 50 day.
Volume: 1.717M Avg Volume: 1.145M
BUY POINT: $8.32 Volume=1.2M Target=$9.98 Stop=$7.74
POSITION: QSC AU - Jan. $7.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qcor.html
Continuing play ready to move:
Play Date: 11/20/2008
EMS (Emergency Medical Services--$33.52; +0.18; no options): Emergency medical services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ems.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Sold back last week after its nice breakout and run to start November. Sharp decline but held at the 90 day SMA on the low (30.43) and rebounded on rising, above average volume. Good shakeout and if EMS can continue the reversal we are looking to add positions.
Volume: 292.094K Avg Volume: 236.535K
BUY POINT: $34.22 Volume=350K Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ems.html
Play Date: 11/20/2008
PETS (PetMed Express--$17.32; -0.02; optionable): Mail order pet meds
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pets.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-20-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Big reach down to the 50 day SMA (15.92) Friday, but we had the feeling it was going to snap back and it did, closing flat on some big volume once more. Good shakeout action and holding at the 18 day EMA on the close. Solid money flow. Just watching for PETS to break higher again after this shakeout move to give us a new buy. To recap: PETS is ignoring the market selling, moving laterally along the 18 day EMA the past week after breaking higher in late October. That move cleared a short 8 week reverse head and shoulders base that was part of a larger 16 month pattern. A very nice foundation for a run higher. Excellent money flow: people will spend on Rover and Fluffy even in bad times.
Volume: 991.775K Avg Volume: 523.364K
BUY POINT: $18.18 Volume=750K Target=$20.95 Stop=$17.11
POSITION: TRQ CW - Mar. $17.50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pets.html
Play Date: 11/19/2008
RIMM (Research in Motion--$44.80; +3.28; optionable): Blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 12-18-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Quietly setting up to move higher after a 5 month pullback. Showing some solid upside volume as it bounced of the lows, then trade backing off as RIMM sold some last week. Nice higher low is setting it up to make the break higher. To recap: RIMM is showing relative strength this month versus most techs. It just undercut the October low last week but rebounded nicely. Solid volume as it moved higher. Moved up to the 18 day EMA Tuesday on strong, above average volume, then faded modestly Wednesday on lower volume, closing near the 10 day EMA (45.55). Looking for RIMM to hold near the 10 day and resume the break higher. Strong volume on the move is what we want to see.
Volume: 31.466M Avg Volume: 30.856M
BUY POINT: $43.55 Volume=40M Target=$57.95 Stop=$40.50
POSITION: RFY AI - Jan. $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
Play Date: 11/17/2008
SMG (Scotts Co.--$26.38; +0.76; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 10-31-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Spent Wednesday through Friday testing the move higher the prior week. Big reach lower to the 90 day SMA (24.46) on the Friday intraday low and a reversal to close positive. Volume was up and above average. Nice test of a good break higher sets SMG in position to move higher. To recap: SMG trended lower from mid-2007. From mid-September it formed a cup with handle base, breaking out last week when the market rallied and it was announced that SMG's main US competition (Spectracide) was leaving the market. SMG shot higher on that news, rallied, and has now tested. SMG is showing great strength and has plenty of open field to run and spread fertilizer on.
Volume: 1.037M Avg Volume: 852.323K
BUY POINT: $28.31 Volume=1.2M Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.33
POSITION: SMG AE - Jan. $25c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/smg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Good Investing!
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
