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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/09/2009
DRIV (Digital River--$24.38; -1.15; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
After Hours: $24.38
EARNINGS: 01/29/2009
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After bottoming in November and rallying into January, DRIV has formed a new 9 week base. Higher lows below constant tops at 26.50ish is building pressure for a break higher out of the base. Strong volume last Wednesday as it rallied up, then lower as it makes the higher low to test the 10 day EMA (24.47). Looking for a break higher off this level on strong volume to clear the recent highs in March at 26.13. That is before the top of the pattern, but if we see strong volume we will start some positions there and see how DRIV handles the next level. Very nice set up has formed quietly but looks very solid.
Volume: 601.197K Avg Volume: 528.361K
BUY POINT: $26.22 Volume=800K Target=$30.95 Stop=$24.38
POSITION: DQI DX - Apr. $22.50c (68 delta) or DQI FE - June $25c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/driv.html
Play Date: 03/09/2009
NCMI (National Cinemedia--$12.64; +0.64; optionable): Theater lobby advertising products ('First Look')
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncmi.html
After Hours: $12.64
EARNINGS: 03/05/2009
STATUS: Trend reversal. NCMI announced earnings to end last week and surged Friday on strong volume. Gapped lower Monday but then resumed the move on more strong volume. This follows the early February rally to the 200 day SMA (10.90) where it paused for the month before this break higher. After gapping down in June NCMI has some room to run upside and fill that gap. Can give us a nice gain along the way. Don't really like the options on this one as no open interest and accordingly a $0.35 spread. Stock will work just fine.
Volume: 815.833K Avg Volume: 277.484K
BUY POINT: $12.87 Volume=500K Target=$15.75 Stop=$11.97
POSITION: QZX FV - June $12.50c (53 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ncmi.html
Play Date: 03/09/2009
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$31.78; -0.36; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
After Hours: $31.78
EARNINGS: 02/18/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. With the recession growing the auto parts stores are working as the DIY crowd (do it yourself) tries to save money. This is ORLY's second base off the October low, a 7 week double bottom that gapped higher on the February earnings. It rallied near 34 and has come back to test, tapping the 18 day EMA (31.65) on the Friday low and bouncing just to come back and close there Monday. Very low trade shows no selling. Has moved laterally for a couple of weeks and may need to consolidate the gain a bit more, but when ORLY makes the next break higher we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 1.739M Avg Volume: 2.623M
BUY POINT: $33.03 Volume=4M Target=$38.45 Stop=$31.32
POSITION: OQR EF - May $30c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/orly.html
Downside: Market is oversold but there are still stocks ready to move downside if things don't pan out with the mark to market hopes and another lateral move fails.
Play Date: 03/09/2009
ADI (Analog Devices--$18.05; -0.43; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
After Hours: $18.05
EARNINGS: 02/18/2009
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Not all chips are setting up for upside. ADI has set up a 10 week head and shoulders top, failing at the 90 day SMA (19.26) last week and dropping Monday to the neckline at 18. Classic set up even if the market is oversold. On a break lower we will be ready to move in. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 7.075M Avg Volume: 6.012M
BUY POINT: $17.88 Volume=7.5M Target=$16.08 Stop=$18.48
POSITION: ADI PD - Apr. $20p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adi.html
Play Date: 03/09/2009
COGT (Cogent Systems--$9.88; -0.25; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogt.html
After Hours: $9.88
EARNINGS: 02/25/2009
STATUS: Put. Sold off hard starting February and rebounded to the 200 day SMA just over 11. Failed there and tumbled back to the February low. Tried to rally Monday, but ran into the 10 day EMA (10.26) and reversed to close lower. Looking for a continued move lower to make the downside play. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 536.246K Avg Volume: 881.262K
BUY POINT: $9.72 Volume=900K Target=$8.86 Stop=$10.34
POSITION: QAO PB - Apr. $10p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cogt.html
Play Date: 03/09/2009
CUB (Cubic Corp.--$25.07; +0.75; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cub.html
After Hours: $25.07
EARNINGS: 02/26/2009
STATUS: Put. After a pretty severe selloff from late February to early March CUB bounced last week and continued the move Monday up almost to the 200 day SMA (25.59). Stalled at the 10 day EMA (25.42) and faded some. Volume pretty strong on the rebound, but if it rolls over that won't matter. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 337.215K Avg Volume: 194.369K
BUY POINT: $24.84 Volume=350K Target=$22.31 Stop=$24.48
POSITION: CUB PE - Apr. $25p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cub.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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