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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/14/2009
AGU (Agrium--$36.05; -0.18; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
After Hours: $35.87
EARNINGS: 02/11/2009
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. After channeling higher in a trading range from the December low into February, AGU fell back to start March, dropping to the January consolidation lows. It has recovered with a short 3 week double bottom with handle at the end of the base, making a higher low to end last week, moving laterally over the 50 day EMA (35.27), using that as support. Excellent set up for the breakout move this week after the market takes a pause, and plenty of room overhead to run up to that gap down point in October near 50.
Volume: 4.46M Avg Volume: 4.448M
BUY POINT: $37.58 Volume=6.5M Target=$47.45 Stop=$35.08
POSITION: AGU GG - July $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agu.html
Play Date: 03/14/2009
BMC (BMC Software--$29.74; +0.19; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmc.html
After Hours: $29.74
EARNINGS: 02/04/2009
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Money flow is surging higher as BMC works laterally the past 5 weeks, forming a handle to its 6 month base. The 50 day EMA (28) is rising to meet it as BMC presses up against the 200 day SMA (29.96), tapping that level on the Friday intraday high. Very solid and looking for a breakout over the 200 day to give us a buy as BMC looks to surge and follow that money flow.
Volume: 4.405M Avg Volume: 3.007M
BUY POINT: $30.12 Volume=4.5M Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.57
POSITION: BMC EY - May $27.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bmc.html
Play Date: 03/14/2009
BRCM (Broadcom--$19.11; +0.01; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $18.98
EARNINGS: 01/29/2009
STATUS: Test breakout. BRCM broke out from a 12 week rectangle pattern or trading range mid-week, surging nicely Thursday. Friday it tested some but rebounded to hold the gains. Like to see a stock that won't give up the move. Looking for a bit of a test, however, early in the week down toward the top of the pattern at 18.50ish. Looking for it to hold somewhere and that range and bounce, and when it does that is when we move in.
Volume: 13.048M Avg Volume: 14.433M
BUY POINT: $18.77 Volume=16M Target=$22.72 Stop=$17.89
POSITION: RCQ ER - May $18c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/brcm.html
Play Date: 03/14/2009
ESI (ITT Educational--$106.34; -1.44; optionable): Online education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esi.html
After Hours: $104.58
EARNINGS: 01/22/2009
STATUS: Test 90 day SMA. Made us some excellent money early in the year as ESI surged while most stocks gave back the ground they gained in December. A 6 week test of that move has it back at the 90 day SMA (101), sitting on top of the July and September peaks, a perfect place for it to hold for the next move higher. Looking for a strong volume move over the 50 day EMA (109.50) to let us know the buyers are not only back in control (they are already showing that), but that they are ready to drive ESI back up toward its prior highs at 132ish.
Volume: 1.393M Avg Volume: 1.851M
BUY POINT: $109.87 Volume=2.3M Target=$128.95 Stop=$106.21
POSITION: ESI DB - Apr. $110c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/esi.html
Play Date: 03/14/2009
SGR (Shaw Group--$27.54; -1.24; optionable): Engineering services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
After Hours: $27.96
EARNINGS: 01/08/2009
STATUS: Rectangle. SGR broke higher to start 2009 and has made a big 10 week 'S' move, coming back from a test to start March, rebounding last week on rising trade. Made it up almost to the high in the pattern at 30, and then backed off some Friday on very low volume. Looking for a bit more test toward the 50 day SMA (26.04) to start the week and then a rebound on volume to give us the buy.
Volume: 1.708M Avg Volume: 3.039M
BUY POINT: $26.48 Volume=4M Target=$34.39 Stop=$25.88
POSITION: SGR GE - July $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sgr.html
Downside: Have to be ready for all contingencies.
Play Date: 03/14/2009
IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$39.37; +0.41; optionable)
After Hours: $39.38
STATUS: Downside. Loading up the downside on IWM again just in case. The small caps are clear laggards and they just barely made it up to the November low late in the week. Showing a candlestick doji Friday just below the late February lateral consolidation. If the market starts to sell hard this week we wan to be ready to take advantage. A move to the target lands a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 72.45M Avg Volume: 71.297M
BUY POINT: $38.64 Volume=90M Target=$35.55 Stop=$38.21
POSITION: IWM PN - Apr. $40p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iwm.html
Play Date: 03/14/2009
OCR (Omnicare--$24.93; +0.73; optionable): Drug stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ocr.html
After Hours: $24.82
EARNINGS: 02/26/2009
STATUS: Downside. Set up a decent base September to February, but then collapsed with its earnings, dropping from 29 to 22 in a day. Ouch. It has clawed back up, bit by bit the past two weeks, making it to the 18 day EMA (24.97) on the Friday close. Lower volume all the way up. Money flow remains weak. Looking for OCR to roll over here and fall through the 10 day EMA (24.30) to give us the entry point. A move to the target lands a 62%ish gain.
Volume: 1.696M Avg Volume: 1.785M
BUY POINT: $24.22 Volume=2M Target=$22.11 Stop=$25.04
POSITION: OCR PE - Apr. $25p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ocr.html
Play Date: 03/14/2009
SDS (UltraShort S&P500 ETF--$90.25; -1.44; optionable)
After Hours: $89.80
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. This is the upside way to play the SP500 to the downside, a 2:1 ratio mover. It surged mid-February to last Monday, then tanked all week, landing with a hammer doji on the candlestick chart just over the 50 day EMA (89). It is the reverse mirror image of the SP500, so if SP500 stalls and rolls over, SDS takes off to the upside again.
Volume: 44.439M Avg Volume: 46.513M
BUY POINT: $91.76 Volume=50M Target=$99.77 Stop=$88.91
POSITION: SBJ DM - Apr. $91c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sds.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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