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Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS:

Upside:

Play Date: 03/16/2009
GS (Goldman Sachs--$93.90; -4.90; optionable): Broker Dealer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
After Hours: $94.51
EARNINGS: Last announced 12/16/2008. Next date is not confirmed
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. GS surged the past week and Monday started a test of that surge higher, fading back toward the 10 day EMA (89.97) on the lowest volume in a week. Looking for GS to make a full test of the 10 day and then we see if it is ready to put in a higher low there and bounce on stronger trade, making a run at breaking the February high at 98.
Volume: 28.25M Avg Volume: 23.716M
BUY POINT: $91.65 Volume=32M Target=$109.85 Stop=$88.32
POSITION: GS DR - Apr. $90c (60 delta) or GS GS - July $95c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gs.html

Play Date: 03/16/2009
MON (Monsanto--$82.73; +3.62; optionable): Biotech seeds, chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
After Hours: $82.00
EARNINGS: 04/01/2009
STATUS: MON broke over the November/January down trendline last Wednesday on a solid shot of volume, then hemmed and hawed about making the continued move higher. Friday it tested, tapping the 50 day EMA (77.61) on the low. Monday MON was moving back up, putting in a new high on the move though volume did not. Still a solid set up for a nice run higher toward the 200 day SMA near 95. Not a bad initial run for us out of this nice little 10 week pattern.
Volume: 8.457M Avg Volume: 8.282M
BUY POINT: $83.04 Volume=10M Target=$94.65 Stop=$78.81
POSITION: MON DP - Apr. $80c (59 delta) or MON GQ - July $85c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mon.html

New Buy Points on Continuing Plays:

Play Date: 03/16/2009
AMZN (Amazon.com--$66.98; -1.65; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
After Hours: $67.21
EARNINGS: 01/29/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice surge through the 200 day SMA (64.35) last week as AMZN broke out from a tight 4 week trading range. Hit 70 on the high and is coming back to test on below average volume, holding over the 10 day EMA (66.01) Monday. The early February high is 66.71 and AMZN held that Monday. Nice orderly test and looking for AMZN to hold in this area and then rebound on some better trade. We will add to positions at that point.
Volume: 9.437M Avg Volume: 9.852M
BUY POINT: $67.11 Volume=11M Target=$74.95 Stop=$65.77
POSITION: ZQN GM - July $65c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amzn.html

Play Date: 03/16/2009
DRIV (Digital River--$28.55; -0.65; optionable): Internet software services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
EARNINGS: 01/29/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. DRIV made the breakout from its 15 week ascending triangle last week, giving us a nice gain and we took some of it Thursday. Now it is making the test on lower volume. Another test back toward 27.50ish will be its third day of pullback. After that we will look for a break higher on rising trade once more and add to some positions as it does.
Volume: 650.897K Avg Volume: 560.39K
BUY POINT: $27.68 Volume=750K Target=$30.95 Stop=$26.88
POSITION: DQI FE - June $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/driv.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/16/2009
AOC (Aon Corp.--$37.18; -1.75; optionable): Accident and health insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aoc.html
After Hours: $37.18
EARNINGS: 02/06/2009
STATUS: Downside. AOC is working along the October/February up trendline, trying to hold its ground after coming back to the trendline to start the month. Tried one bounce but that failed immediately and AOC was back at the trendline. Could not make much of a move last week as the market rallied and Monday it turned down and tanked to close on the trendline on stronger, above average volume. When a stock cannot get up off a trendline and indeed fails a couple of bounce attempts it is losing its mojo. Watching to see if AOC breaks below the trendline on continued solid trade and if it does we move in on the downside. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 4.141M Avg Volume: 3.797M
BUY POINT: $36.98 Volume=4.4M Target=$34.91 Stop=$38.31
POSITION: AOC PU - Apr. $37.50p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aoc.html

Play Date: 03/16/2009
MCD (McDonalds--$51.69; -0.69; optionable): Hamburger joints
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mcd.html
After Hours: $51.65
EARNINGS: 04/22/2009
STATUS: Head and shoulders. A favorite stock for many but MCD is trying to hold a support line at 51.50ish while the down trendline from January pushes it down from above. If MCD breaks below support on a good shot of volume we are looking to enter the downside play. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 9.883M Avg Volume: 10.835M
BUY POINT: $51.48 Volume=12M Target=$49.05 Stop=$52.31
POSITION: MCD PX - Apr. $52.50p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mcd.html

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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