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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: If the next move upside is powerful and shows a follow through there are stocks in position to run higher still.
Play Date: 03/17/2009
BTU (Peabody Energy--$26.47; +1.32; optionable): Coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btu.html
After Hours: $26.45
EARNINGS: 01/27/2009
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After coming off the November low and rallying through early February BTU sold back as the materials and commodities sold off after investors saw the stimulus package. BTU has set back up, however, forming the current 6 week base. Nice action with low volume setting up the handle, then some stronger, above average volume Tuesday as BTU started to break higher. Nice quiet action has set the foundation for a nice run higher.
Volume: 10.002M Avg Volume: 8.545M
BUY POINT: $26.66 Volume=11M Target=$32.45 Stop=$24.79
POSITION: BTU FY - June $25c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/btu.html
Play Date: 03/17/2009
ILMN (Illumina--$36.07; +1.52; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ilmn.html
After Hours: $36.07
EARNINGS: 02/03/2009
STATUS: Cup with handle. An interesting 6 week reverse head and shoulders has formed that used the 50 day EMA at 30 as support and bounced ILMN higher late last week. The move sent it over the 200 day SMA (34.26) that stalled it in mid-February, and Friday to Monday ILMN was testing that break before a modest bounce Tuesday. Bigger picture this short base is the handle consolidation to a larger 6 month base that is setting the foundation for a nice breakout ahead. Money flow is moving up ahead of price as it consolidates. One of the first cup with handle bases of size we are seeing in this recovery. Cool.
Volume: 2.174M Avg Volume: 2.295M
BUY POINT: $36.51 Volume=2.5M Target=$42.45 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: IQA FG - June $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ilmn.html
Play Date: 03/17/2009
MCHP (Microchip--$20.51; +0.50; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
After Hours: $20.51
EARNINGS: 01/29/2009
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very interesting pattern. MCHP is in a 4 month trading range, but over the past 6 weeks has formed a cup with handle pattern. It made a higher low in March at the bottom of the new base, then rallied up to the resistance at 20.70 last week. It has since shuffled sideways on very low, below average volume. Nice handle forming as money flow surges higher. Looking for the breakout over the top of the range on some strong volume to give us the buy point.
Volume: 4.027M Avg Volume: 4.722M
BUY POINT: $20.82 Volume=5M Target=$24.77 Stop=$19.77
POSITION: QMT DW - Apr. $17.50c (79 delta) or QMT GD - July $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mchp.html
Play Date: 03/17/2009
MOS (Mosaic Company--$42.26; +0.91; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mos.html
After Hours: $42.26
EARNINGS: 04/07/2009
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Taking another look at MOS as it rolls down to the bottom of its uptrending channel just over the 50 day EMA (39.92). MOS rallied last week but could not make the run up to the upper channel line over 50. Nice easy low volume test, and set to make the bounce off the trendline. Looking for good volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 7.23M Avg Volume: 8.822M
BUY POINT: $43.71 Volume=12M Target=$50.94 Stop=$40.65
POSITION: MOS FH - June $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mos.html
Downside: In addition to SDS, IWM, OCR, GME
Play Date: 03/17/2009
ICUI (ICU Medical--$29.86; +0.21; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icui.html
After Hours: $29.44
EARNINGS: 02/02/2009
STATUS: Downside. ICUI fell like a stone in late February through early march. It fell to the November low and then rebounded the past week to the 200 day SMA (29.87) it crashed through to start the month. Showed some churn just below this level Monday as volume spiked, then closed right at the resistance on low Tuesday volume. Just watching to see if ICUI has to go back to the ICU and gives us a buy point as it does so. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 114.386K Avg Volume: 151.169K
BUY POINT: $29.21 Volume=185K Target=$26.72 Stop=$29.98
POSITION: QPD QF - May $30p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/icui.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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