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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Some are still ready to make the break higher.
Play Date: 03/18/2009
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor--$9.08; +0.10; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsm.html
After Hours: $9.20
EARNINGS: 01/22/2009
STATUS: Test breakout. TSM broke out from its 12 week ascending base last week, moving over the 200 day SMA (8.71) on some solid trade. Then it started to test early this week, coming back to the 200 day, then bouncing Tuesday and Wednesday after starting lower both days. Wednesday the volume kicked back in as TSM hit a new closing high on this move. Nice break, nice test, and looking to move in as TSM continues the breakout run.
Volume: 27.978M Avg Volume: 20.619M
BUY POINT: $9.19 Volume=35M Target=$10.96 Stop=$8.65
POSITION: TSM GU - July $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tsm.html
Play Date: 03/18/2009
USO (United States Oil Fund ETF--$29.61; +0.17; optionable)
After Hours: $29.80
STATUS: USO is working on an 11 week cup base that is setting up a trend reversal. It has worked laterally the past two weeks, bumping up at the 50 day EMA (29.74) the past two sessions. A break through that level reverses the trend. Want to see some strong volume on that break higher through the 50 day.
Volume: 26.512M Avg Volume: 36.005M
BUY POINT: $30.08 Volume=38M Target=$36.77 Stop=$28.18
POSITION: UBO GC - Julyu $29c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/uso.html
Continuing Play ready to move:
Play Date: 03/10/2009
PCU (Southern Copper--$16.69; +0.60; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
After Hours: $17.00
EARNINGS: 10/28/2008
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PCU's pattern is setting up nicely as it climbed the past week to the February peak at the middle of the base and faded to test the 50 day EMA intraday, finding support and bouncing. Volume jumped up to average Wednesday as it rebounded as all commodities started to show better volume. Money flow has turned up sharply ahead of the price. Ready to move in as PCU makes the break.
Volume: 6.206M Avg Volume: 5.661M
BUY POINT: $16.82 Volume=6.5M Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.64
POSITION: PCU FC - June $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcu.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/18/2009
AAPL (Apple Computer--$101.52; +1.86; optionable): iPods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
After Hours: $101.36
EARNINGS: 01/21/2009
STATUS: Rolling channel. Blasphemy to some to look at AAPL to the downside, but it has traded in this range up to 103 for almost 4 months. Maybe that is too long and this will be the breakout, but intraday it rallied to 103 and faded. After hours it was back at 103 on the ORCL earnings. The entire move has been on low volume, suggesting not a lot of buying and thus a roll back down. With the market dealing with the Fed, however, we need to be careful and not get a head fake early in the day. Indeed we could see AAPL move over 103 on Thursday and then gap back down Friday, a classic sign the range is going to push it back down. We will let it show us the move either way. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 28.436M Avg Volume: 28.128M
BUY POINT: $99.66 Volume=30M Target=$94.55 Stop=$102.11
POSITION: QAA PT - Apr. $100p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html
Play Date: 03/18/2009
CPLA (Capella Education--$49.23; -1.11; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpla.html
After Hours: $50.30
EARNINGS: 02/12/2009
STATUS: Put. Formed a broad top from December to February and then broke down through the 200 day SMA (53.12) to start March. Rebounded through last week but came up short, and tanked. Rebounded on light volume as the market rallied back Tuesday and Wednesday. Failed at the 10 day EMA on this rebound and looking for CPLA to turn back down from here and really make the plunge. Our initial target is not that ambitious but a move to the target lands a 41%ish gain, but this pattern could head much lower than that.
Volume: 260.136K Avg Volume: 301.6K
BUY POINT: $48.66 Volume=350K Target=$44.55 Stop=$50.41
POSITION: CQX PJ - Apr. $50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cpla.html
Play Date: 03/18/2009
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$74.97; +0.89; optionable)
After Hours: $74.96
STATUS: Put. DJ30 rallied up to its November closing low and thus DIA did the same. Wednesday it touched the November low on the high and faded. Despite all of the Fed hype it could not punch through. Will see how the Dow reacts to the Fed news on the day after. If it stalls, however, it can give us a nice move lower. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 35.907M Avg Volume: 29.407M
BUY POINT: $74.05 Volume=37M Target=$71.00 Stop=$75.65
POSITION: DIJ PW - Apr. $75p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Play Date: 03/18/2009
LLL (L-3 Communications--$63.46; +0.30; optionable): Military communications systems and equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
After Hours: $63.04
EARNINGS: 01/29/2009
STATUS: Put. Broad umbrella top starting in January that resulted in the February to early March drop. Sorry we missed that one. LLL bounced off the November low though it did undercut it some as it sold. It rebounded the past two weeks but volume slipped each day it rose until it showed a doji below the 18 day EMA (64.10) Wednesday on very low trade. Looking for a break lower on some rising volume to give us the downside play. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 983.971K Avg Volume: 1.255M
BUY POINT: $62.84 Volume=1.4M Target=$59.74 Stop=$64.14
POSITION: LLL PM - Apr. $65p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lll.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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